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CEEN 590 Course Review, Energy Transitions, Conclusion 1

1. Review of course Energy Transitions Mobilizing action on climate Themes 2

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CEEN 590 Course Review, Energy Transitions, Conclusion

1

Outline

Review of courseEnergy TransitionsMobilizing action on climateThemes

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First half

Week 1 Course overviewWeek 2: Sustainable Energy as a

Social and Political ChallengeWeek 3: Formal Government

Processes – Week 4: Policy process, Actor

Dynamics Week 5: Policy Analysis in a Political

ContextWeek 6: Policy InstrumentsWeek 7: Energy Planning and

Approval

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Second half

Week 8: Midterm ExamWeek 9: The Two Giants: Energy

Policy in China and the USWeek 10: Case Studies in Policy

InnovationWeek 11: Simulated Multi-

stakeholder Consultation  Week 12: Synthesis, Reflection

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What should be covered that we didn’t address?

Is there a need for more policy-relevant analytical methods?

5

What should be reduced or eliminated to make room for new stuff?

6

Assignments

Midterm

Simulation and paper – is acting like an advocate an important learning experience?

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pedagogy

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Smil on Energy Transitions (1)

The inherently slow pace of energy transitions

Definition: energy transition encompasses the time that elapses between the introduction of a new primary energy source (coal, oil, nuclear electricity, wind captured by large turbines) and its rise to claiming a substantial (15%) share of the overall market

Energy sources vs prime movers 9

Smil on Energy Transitions (2)

Past transitions have take ~ half century

Explanation: essential a socio-technical system path-dependence argument (carbon lock-in)

Logistical challenges mean plans for transition are a “grand delusion”

Jacobson and Delucchi “fairy tale” Note: their 2009 version was all energy

by 2013; 2010 was all new by 2030, all by 2050

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Is there any reason to expect the next energy transition could be faster than the previous?

because it better be….

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Unruh, Escaping Carbon Lock-in

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Outline

Review of courseEnergy TransitionsMobilizing action on climateThemes

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Puzzle: Consensus in science community about

serious of problem and urgent need to address it

Lack of awareness and motivation among public and lack of political action

Psychology helps explain – climate change fails to activate our moral intuitions

April 4, 2013 Sustainable Energy Policy 14

April 4, 2013 Sustainable Energy Policy 15

April 4, 2013 Sustainable Energy Policy 16

Themes

Climate (clean energy) challenge compounded by temporal and spatial inconsistency

Motivated reasoning: people filter facts through the values/worldview – convincing people with factual reason when implications conflict with their values is a major challenge

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Themes

Authority: ability to make rules backed up by coercive power of the state Found in formal rules and procedures –

understanding them in a necessary step in influence

Who decides? At what level?Power/influence: ability to influence

outcomes More diverse sources

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Themes

Fundamentals to analysis Problem definition Criteria Alternatives Consequences Trade-offs

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Themes

There are a variety of instruments available in clean energy policy, and they come with a different package of attributes and consequences

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Themes

Nuclear power is low GHG but costly and comes with distinctive real and perceived risks

Project planning and approval is complex and there are frequently tradeoffs between quality and coherence on the one hand and political realities on the other

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Themes

Different countries face different challenges because of different resource endowments policy legacies political cultures Institutions

Where it has been introduced, policy has been effective at increasing RE penetration but not yet at a scale or rate consistent with what is needed to reach climate goals 22

Role of technology

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Concluding Theme 1

Sustainable energy requires that prices reflect their true environmental and social cost

Government action is required to internalize costs

Policy is made by politicians whose core interest is reelection, which discourages them from imposing costs

Sustainable Energy Policy 24

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Transition to clean energy is feasible and affordable

But…we are stuckRequires politicians to raise energy prices

Which is improbable without intense social pressure

Climate politics dilemma

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Energy system transformation:technically feasible and economic affordable

Confidence in one or both instruments to price carbon: Economy wide carbon tax Economy wide cap and trade

Supplementary policies Energy R&D Regulations to foster sector specific

change

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Mitigation measures would induce 0.6% gain to 3% decrease of GDP in 2030

Stabilisation levels

(ppm CO2-eq)

Range of GDP reduction (%)

445 - 535 < 3

535 - 590 0.2 – 2.5

590 - 710 -0.6 – 1.2

Costs of mitigation in 2030

Concluding Theme (2)

There is a profound tension between

the incentives of politicians to avoid imposing costs

andthe need to use government action to

increase prices

Sustainable Energy Policy 28

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Overcoming obstacles – 2 paths Politicians “lead” – move beyond electorate

Or

Electorate creates incentives for politicians to act Organize Mobilize

Advocacy Alert! My Leap of Faith

Acting according to short term material interest won’t solve the problem

Act because it is the right thing to do

Tahrir Square, February 11, 2011

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Sustainable Energy Policy 35