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First half
Week 1 Course overviewWeek 2: Sustainable Energy as a
Social and Political ChallengeWeek 3: Formal Government
Processes – Week 4: Policy process, Actor
Dynamics Week 5: Policy Analysis in a Political
ContextWeek 6: Policy InstrumentsWeek 7: Energy Planning and
Approval
3
Second half
Week 8: Midterm ExamWeek 9: The Two Giants: Energy
Policy in China and the USWeek 10: Case Studies in Policy
InnovationWeek 11: Simulated Multi-
stakeholder Consultation Week 12: Synthesis, Reflection
4
What should be covered that we didn’t address?
Is there a need for more policy-relevant analytical methods?
5
Assignments
Midterm
Simulation and paper – is acting like an advocate an important learning experience?
7
Smil on Energy Transitions (1)
The inherently slow pace of energy transitions
Definition: energy transition encompasses the time that elapses between the introduction of a new primary energy source (coal, oil, nuclear electricity, wind captured by large turbines) and its rise to claiming a substantial (15%) share of the overall market
Energy sources vs prime movers 9
Smil on Energy Transitions (2)
Past transitions have take ~ half century
Explanation: essential a socio-technical system path-dependence argument (carbon lock-in)
Logistical challenges mean plans for transition are a “grand delusion”
Jacobson and Delucchi “fairy tale” Note: their 2009 version was all energy
by 2013; 2010 was all new by 2030, all by 2050
10
Is there any reason to expect the next energy transition could be faster than the previous?
because it better be….
11
Puzzle: Consensus in science community about
serious of problem and urgent need to address it
Lack of awareness and motivation among public and lack of political action
Psychology helps explain – climate change fails to activate our moral intuitions
April 4, 2013 Sustainable Energy Policy 14
Themes
Climate (clean energy) challenge compounded by temporal and spatial inconsistency
Motivated reasoning: people filter facts through the values/worldview – convincing people with factual reason when implications conflict with their values is a major challenge
17
Themes
Authority: ability to make rules backed up by coercive power of the state Found in formal rules and procedures –
understanding them in a necessary step in influence
Who decides? At what level?Power/influence: ability to influence
outcomes More diverse sources
18
Themes
There are a variety of instruments available in clean energy policy, and they come with a different package of attributes and consequences
20
Themes
Nuclear power is low GHG but costly and comes with distinctive real and perceived risks
Project planning and approval is complex and there are frequently tradeoffs between quality and coherence on the one hand and political realities on the other
21
Themes
Different countries face different challenges because of different resource endowments policy legacies political cultures Institutions
Where it has been introduced, policy has been effective at increasing RE penetration but not yet at a scale or rate consistent with what is needed to reach climate goals 22
Concluding Theme 1
Sustainable energy requires that prices reflect their true environmental and social cost
Government action is required to internalize costs
Policy is made by politicians whose core interest is reelection, which discourages them from imposing costs
Sustainable Energy Policy 24
25
Transition to clean energy is feasible and affordable
But…we are stuckRequires politicians to raise energy prices
Which is improbable without intense social pressure
Climate politics dilemma
26
Energy system transformation:technically feasible and economic affordable
Confidence in one or both instruments to price carbon: Economy wide carbon tax Economy wide cap and trade
Supplementary policies Energy R&D Regulations to foster sector specific
change
27
Mitigation measures would induce 0.6% gain to 3% decrease of GDP in 2030
Stabilisation levels
(ppm CO2-eq)
Range of GDP reduction (%)
445 - 535 < 3
535 - 590 0.2 – 2.5
590 - 710 -0.6 – 1.2
Costs of mitigation in 2030
Concluding Theme (2)
There is a profound tension between
the incentives of politicians to avoid imposing costs
andthe need to use government action to
increase prices
Sustainable Energy Policy 28
29
Overcoming obstacles – 2 paths Politicians “lead” – move beyond electorate
Or
Electorate creates incentives for politicians to act Organize Mobilize
Advocacy Alert! My Leap of Faith
Acting according to short term material interest won’t solve the problem
Act because it is the right thing to do