1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007.

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  • Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges

    T. X. HammesAugust 2007

  • Marine Palm Pilot

  • PurposeHow and why warfare changesRecent evolutions in fourth generation Potential fifth generationWhats after that

  • 4GW is Just a Model Varied terminology used in descriptionsTofflers Waves Forms of Energy Generations of RMAsFourth Generation ConstructFocus on modern warSimple AQ uses it

  • War Reflects SocietyEconomicPoliticalSocialTechnology

    Military institutions and the manner in which they employ violencedepended on the economic, social and political conditions of theirrespective states. On War, Clausewitz, Paret translation, pg. 6.

  • Four GenerationsMassed Manpower NapoleonicMassed Firepower WW IMechanized War WW IIInsurgency (information) dominant since WW II

  • Fourth Generation War

  • ChinaMao Political struggle is PRIMARYOrganized all of societyThree phasesOne Political organizationTwo Guerrilla fight change correlation of forcesThree Conventional fight ONLY after Phase II is successfulFirst to write it down

  • VietnamImitated and improved on MaoUsed international networks to change correlation of forcesTet 68 disaster tactically, strategic victoryUsed political power to negate US military powerStill ended with conventional invasion

  • NicaraguaCoalition of insurgent groupsNEVER sought military victoryTarget was US CongressInternational media, celebrities, mainline Christian churchesDefeated Somoza politicallyNo Phase III offensive

  • Palestinians Intifada IFirst Intifada spontaneous eruptionOrganized within weeksLoosely affiliated self organizing webNever even had a military aspectMultiple messagesInternational children vs. powerful armyIsraelis Israel proper safe, occupied zone unsafePalestinians We are holding our ownResult 1993 Oslo Accords

  • Intifada I - Children vs ArmyThe Lasting Images

  • Al Aqsa IntifadaReverses rolesIsrael back to besieged Palestinians back to ruthless terroristsUS positionNo negotiation until terror stopsSupports Israeli security techniquesIncludes seizure of more territory on West Bank

  • Al Aqsa Intifada Oppression

  • Suicide Bombers

  • Afghans vs. SovietsNo unified resistance changing coalitionsEssentially tribal = network Overlaid religious and xenophobic aspectsMassive killing failedBroke Soviet will

  • Al QaedaFourth Generation Wars have ... proven the superiority of the weaker power. Ubeid al-Qurashi Jan 2002Proto-typical non-nation state 4GW enemyTransnational coalition of willing Idea basedGlobal network of local insurgents Strategic guidance is verticalTactical support is horizontal

  • IraqClassic 4GW approach"The war is very long, and always think of this as the beginning. And always make the enemy think that yesterday was better than today.' ZARQAWITribal, ethnic and religious networksWas Network of the willingSunni Salifi, Sunni secular, Shia radicals, Free Lancers, Foreign JihadistsNow the predictable civil war

  • Hizbollah-Israeli Summer WarHizb understood political aspectsBuilt political base servicesFought political fightSaw victory is secured after fightingHigh-low mixLong range missiles Israeli focus122mm Rockets most effectiveTechnological surprise C802, UAVLateral escalation!

  • Will we go back to 3GW?War is contest of opposing willsCost of hightech vs insurgencyRecord of successConventional = Status quoUnconventional = Change5-0 versus Superpowers

  • 4th Generation Insurgency EvolvedDirect attack on minds of decision makersUses all available networks political, economic, social and militarySuperior political will defeats greater economic and military power. Wars are measured in decades. Political, Protracted, Networked

  • Key Changes in 4GW since MaoStrategic ShiftOrganizational ShiftParticipants IncreaseWeapons

  • Strategic Shift Insurgents ViewNOT a military campaignStrategic Communications CampaignSupported by interagency effortsMilitary action is NOT primaryMilitary action cannot solve the problem

  • Operational ShiftCoalition of the willingAfghanistan, Chechnya, IraqOften hate each otherTransdimensionalIdentify, recruit, indoctrinate, train, deploy, controlAttackFund

  • ParticipantsArmed groupsClans, tribesCriminalsPrivate Military CompaniesState use as well

  • Weapons ofMass DisruptionPrevious Incidents

  • Anthrax and Ricin Capitol HillIncluded a warning and instructions

  • BombingsMadridLondon

  • Weapons ofMass DestructionPractical Methods

  • Chemical: BhopalOne temporary morgueKilled = 15,000 Long term injury = 200,000

  • HYE: Oklahoma CityTruckload of Ammonium Nitrate

  • Texas City Ship ExplosionRail Cars 3 / 4 Mile from zero

  • HYE: Texas City Ship ExplosionShipload of Ammonium Nitrate

  • Summary of 4GWConflict is now Strategic Communications Focus is outsidersInternal conflict still bloodyEnemy will be shifting coalition of the willingMany more players with various motivationsCheaper, deadlier weapons

  • Fifth Generation Emerges

  • S CurvesInnovation/Technology DevelopmentExperimentationInstitutionalizationRapid GrowthAdoptionMaturationInnovation

  • Generations of War2d Branches5th All of Society4th All of Govt.3d Combined ArmsTimePrevalence/Performance

  • 5GW Incubating NowPolitical Pressure on nation stateEconomic Smaller EntitiesSocial Loyalty to cause not nationTechnology - Bio tech, Nano-tech, Always on Net

  • ForeshadowingAttacks Capitol Hill -- anthrax - no informationLondon, Madrid bombs no connectionIncreasing cause attacksEarth Liberation, Animal Liberation FrontsSeveral areas cyber, nano, bio Biological advancesSynthetic biology Dr. VenterAustralians and Mouse PoxCarlsons CurveBritish student

  • 5GW GoalStop GlobalizationPotential coalition of the willingGlobalization losersFundamentalist movementsEnvironmental radicalsDestroy trust inhibit movement Information physical not cyberPersonnel relationshipsMaterial - containers

  • Nightmare 5GWSuper empowered individual or small groupUses increasing power of knowledge creates off the shelf technology Loyalty to cause not nation Anthrax on Capitol HillSmallpox Worldwide

  • Beyond 5GW

  • Rate of ChangeKurzweils SINGULARITYChange is exponential not linearOverestimate in short termUnderestimate in long term

  • Bottom Line21st Century will not bring100 years of progressIt will be 20,000 years

  • Additional Informationwww.d-n-i.net

    The Sling and the Stone

    txhammes@excite.com