© Ricado plc 2012 Scottish GHG Inventory: Data, Uncertainties & Progress to Targets Justin Goodwin (Aether) Glen Thistlethwaite (Ricardo-AEA) Stuart Sneddon

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Ricado plc 2012 Scottish GHG Inventory: Data, Uncertainties & Progress to Targets Justin Goodwin (Aether) Glen Thistlethwaite (Ricardo-AEA) Stuart Sneddon (Ricardo-AEA) Special Thanks to John Landrock (SG) for input to Scottish GHGi over the years. 28 November 2012 NESAC, Scottish Government Victoria Quay, Leith, Edinburgh Slide 2 2 What does this presentation cover? Overview Trends and Changes By NC sector Uncertainties Changes and Improvements Where you can find more information Slide 3 3 Background: UK and DA GHG inventory and other datasets UK UNFCCC (Kyoto Protocol) GHG inventory : This presentation Embedded Emissions (e.g. Scotland's carbon footprint ) All greenhouse gas emissions at home and abroad from the production, transport and use of goods and services consumed by the Scottish economy. Environmental Accounts Emissions from UK citizens activity in the UK and aboard. Slide 4 4 Background: The UK and DA GHG inventory: Aims and Objectives Our aim: Deliver a strong, accurate evidence base on GHG emissions. Meet reporting & monitoring commitments (UNFCCC, EU, CCC, SG, Wales & NI) to inform climate change policy development and implementation. To do this: Use UK statistics and bottom up datasets (e.g. EU ETS, other industry reporting). Use available DA (Scotland)-specific data where possible - this is limited, and there are also some constraining factors (e.g. links to UK datasets more of this later), Use UK wide mapping datasets to derive some LA, DA estimates We believe that its a pretty good inventory, but its not perfect: Year-to-year uncertainties are high compared to long time-series trend uncertainties For DAs (Scotland) need access more detailed data to help improve the inventory and make it more accurate and sensitive to policy impacts. there are systems (improvement programme) in place to fix highest priorities, and plenty of examples of us using new data to challenge / improve the current dataset. Please let us know if you know of more data / research to improve the accuracy of the Scottish GHG Inventory. Slide 5 5 Background: UK GHG Inventory How the GHGI is run. DECC, SG, WG, NI DoE Defra, SG, WG, NI DoE National Atmospheric Emissions Inventories GHG inventories: UK, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland Aether & Ricardo- AEA Government Sector and pollutant experts Energy use Transport Industry Waste Agriculture LULUCF SectorsPollutants Outputs Energy and Emissions Mapping GHG inventories (Annual EU and UNFCCC and KP reporting) Air quality pollutant inventories (Annual CLRTAP, NECD, etc.) DA inventories, OT and CD inventories, Local inventories AQ and GHG projections End user inventories, uncertainties, etc. Local Authority CO 2 Inventories GHGs: CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, F-gases AQ pollutants: Acidifying pollutants, VOCs, Particulate Matter, Metals, POPs GHGI Single National Entity: Inventory Agency : Rothamsted Research CEH Ricardo-AEA, Aether, Enviros Slide 6 6 Background: UK GHG Inventory National System (1) Single National Entity: UK Government Department of Energy & Climate Change (DECC). Overall responsibility for the UK NIS. Inventory Agency: Consortium led by Ricardo-AEA, including Aether. Contracted by DECC to manage the inventory compilation, reporting and Quality Assurance system. Agriculture Inventory: Rothamsted Research. LULUCF Inventory: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology. Key organisations tasked with delivering UK GHGI to EU Monitoring Mechanism and UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, using methods consistent with IPCC guidance, on time for submission to EUMM by 15 th January each year (so the 1990- 2011 GHGI data will be submitted on 15/1/2013 to the EU, then to UNFCCC on 15/4/2013. Slide 7 7 Background: UK GHG Inventory National System (2) National Inventory Steering Committee Panel of representatives from Government Departments, regulatory agencies, other organisations, including Scottish Government. i.Prioritise & implement inventory improvements. ii.Review the UK GHGI prior to data submission to UNFCCC. iii.Communicate GHGI issues across Government. iv.Includes representatives of regional and local Government. Meets twice a year (today!), managed by DECC. The UK NIS operates an inventory improvement programme that integrates national-level and sub-national level priorities. Slide 8 8 8 Background: DA (Scottish) GHG Inventory Compilation Approach Slide 9 9 9 Background: DA and LA Inventory Compilation (1) We adopt the basic principle that: Sum of DA or LA inventories = UK Inventory...for each source and each pollutant. Incorporates benefits of the UK GHGI: UK inventories subject to rigorous QA/QC, reliable time series, has been developed over 20+ years of research into UK sources. UK GHGI is a resource of emission factors, many activity data, conversion factors etc. (Can fill gaps in local knowledge.) X Constrains the DA inventory data to align with the UK GHGI totals. e.g. sum of DA energy use in each economic sector is constrained to that presented in DUKES. Slide 10 10 Background: DA Inventory Compilation Method (2) Bottom-up estimates for sources where we have comprehensive local data, such as: Industrial point sources Road transport Domestic flight data Top-down or modelled estimates for sources where we DONT have comprehensive local data, such as: Combustion sources in domestic, commercial, small-scale industry and public administration sectors (e.g. we use the DEMScot model and Scottish Housing Condition Survey data to inform Scotland share of UK-reported domestic emissions) Waste and sewage treatment and disposal emissions F-gas emissions from refrigeration and other sources Slide 11 11 Background: DA Inventory Compilation Method (3) Use local parameters such as population, employment, housing condition surveys (domestic), industrial production statistics. Commercial confidentiality limits energy use data cannot access detailed local AND sector-specific data. Overall local data is available, but not split out by sector. Modelling approach to derive estimates: o Metered fuels (gas, electricity) greater accuracy than non-metered fuels (oils, solid fuels). o DA/LA estimates for these sources are higher in uncertainty, and inventory data are less sensitive to policy impacts. Slide 12 12 Background: Data Sources (1) Digest of UK Energy Statistics (DECC), EUETS Pollution Inventories (EA, SEPA,NI DoE) Transport data (DfT, CAA, shipping data) Companies & Trade Associations (e.g. UKPIA, BCA, Corus) Other statistical sources (ONS, ISSB, BGS) Farming surveys and UK-wide emission factor research (Rothamsted) Countryside Surveys (more details from CEH) DECC Sub-national Energy Statistics (DECC) Scottish Pollutant Release Inventory (SEPA) Vehicle km data & DVLA data (DfT) Scottish Housing Condition Survey data and DEMScot model (SG) Individual companies (e.g. Alcan, Ineos, GSK Montrose, ExxonMobil..) Population, employment, industrial production data (ONS) Gas network demand, gas composition and leakage data (Scotia Gas) Waste water statistics (Scottish Water) Waste management statistics (SEPA, Defra) Slide 13 13 Background: Data Sources (2) Energy: (Business, Public, Residential, Agricultural machinery) Sub-national energy statistics: Limited compared to UK energy statistics: Industry and Commercial, Agriculture, Residential greater uncertainty and less detail than the UK energy statistics: no Scottish energy balance. Fairly good gas data, but NO solid or liquid fuel data. Road transport based on fuel sales and vehicle km. (see later in presentation). EUETS data for some large energy users. Industrial process (Industrial Process, Business) plant operator estimates reported to environmental agencies e.g. Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control (IPPC) & EUETS. Cement and lime kilns, iron and steel works, aluminium and other non-ferrous metal plant, chemical industries; Agriculture (Livestock & crops & soils) Annual survey data & UK emission factors : arable production and livestock numbers; Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) regional survey data of land use, emission factors and, modelled to calculate GHG emissions and carbon fluxes between sources and sinks; Waste modelled emissions from the UK GHG inventory, split out across the DAs based on local authority waste disposal activity reporting - local shares of UK activity for recycling, landfilling, incineration and other treatment and disposal options. UK statistical data and improvements will impact upon Scottish GHG data, e.g. recent revisions to energy balance data on fuel use in sectors such as: refineries, petrochemicalsalso have a large impact in Scotland. Slide 14 14 Background: GHG Inventory: Scope GHG Inventories report annual emissions of all anthropogenic GHG emissions. Annual: 1990 2010 (reported in 2012) = 2 year lag. Sources: NAEI source/activity categories (370) IPCC (100) National Communication (9) Gases: Kyoto basket of six GHGs: Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, HFCs, PFCs, SF 6 Carbon dioxide: mainly from combustion of fuels in different economic sectors, industrial processes, LULUCF sources and sinks Methane: waste, agriculture Nitrous oxide: industrial processes, agriculture F-gases: industrial processes & AC/Refrigeration Excluded: Short-cycle biocarbon in the GHGI (e.g. CO 2 from plant biomass but not CH 4 ) International shipping and aviation memo items for DA estimates. DA: offshore oil & gas exploration and production off-shore facilities Slide 15 15 Background: DA National Communication categories Agriculture Livestock, Soils, crops & field burning, energy use in Agriculture Forestry and Fishing Business Energy use (combustion for heat and power in businesses) Use of Solvents & HFC/PFC leakage from appliances (Air conditioning, refrigeration, fire fighting, foams) Energy Supply Energy production (electricity, solid & liquid fuels, generation refining and mining