Ricado plc 2012 Scottish GHG Inventory: Data, Uncertainties
& Progress to Targets Justin Goodwin (Aether) Glen
Thistlethwaite (Ricardo-AEA) Stuart Sneddon (Ricardo-AEA) Special
Thanks to John Landrock (SG) for input to Scottish GHGi over the
years. 28 November 2012 NESAC, Scottish Government Victoria Quay,
Leith, Edinburgh Slide 2 2 What does this presentation cover?
Overview Trends and Changes By NC sector Uncertainties Changes and
Improvements Where you can find more information Slide 3 3
Background: UK and DA GHG inventory and other datasets UK UNFCCC
(Kyoto Protocol) GHG inventory : This presentation Embedded
Emissions (e.g. Scotland's carbon footprint ) All greenhouse gas
emissions at home and abroad from the production, transport and use
of goods and services consumed by the Scottish economy.
Environmental Accounts Emissions from UK citizens activity in the
UK and aboard. Slide 4 4 Background: The UK and DA GHG inventory:
Aims and Objectives Our aim: Deliver a strong, accurate evidence
base on GHG emissions. Meet reporting & monitoring commitments
(UNFCCC, EU, CCC, SG, Wales & NI) to inform climate change
policy development and implementation. To do this: Use UK
statistics and bottom up datasets (e.g. EU ETS, other industry
reporting). Use available DA (Scotland)-specific data where
possible - this is limited, and there are also some constraining
factors (e.g. links to UK datasets more of this later), Use UK wide
mapping datasets to derive some LA, DA estimates We believe that
its a pretty good inventory, but its not perfect: Year-to-year
uncertainties are high compared to long time-series trend
uncertainties For DAs (Scotland) need access more detailed data to
help improve the inventory and make it more accurate and sensitive
to policy impacts. there are systems (improvement programme) in
place to fix highest priorities, and plenty of examples of us using
new data to challenge / improve the current dataset. Please let us
know if you know of more data / research to improve the accuracy of
the Scottish GHG Inventory. Slide 5 5 Background: UK GHG Inventory
How the GHGI is run. DECC, SG, WG, NI DoE Defra, SG, WG, NI DoE
National Atmospheric Emissions Inventories GHG inventories: UK,
Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland Aether & Ricardo- AEA
Government Sector and pollutant experts Energy use Transport
Industry Waste Agriculture LULUCF SectorsPollutants Outputs Energy
and Emissions Mapping GHG inventories (Annual EU and UNFCCC and KP
reporting) Air quality pollutant inventories (Annual CLRTAP, NECD,
etc.) DA inventories, OT and CD inventories, Local inventories AQ
and GHG projections End user inventories, uncertainties, etc. Local
Authority CO 2 Inventories GHGs: CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, F-gases AQ
pollutants: Acidifying pollutants, VOCs, Particulate Matter,
Metals, POPs GHGI Single National Entity: Inventory Agency :
Rothamsted Research CEH Ricardo-AEA, Aether, Enviros Slide 6 6
Background: UK GHG Inventory National System (1) Single National
Entity: UK Government Department of Energy & Climate Change
(DECC). Overall responsibility for the UK NIS. Inventory Agency:
Consortium led by Ricardo-AEA, including Aether. Contracted by DECC
to manage the inventory compilation, reporting and Quality
Assurance system. Agriculture Inventory: Rothamsted Research.
LULUCF Inventory: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology. Key
organisations tasked with delivering UK GHGI to EU Monitoring
Mechanism and UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, using
methods consistent with IPCC guidance, on time for submission to
EUMM by 15 th January each year (so the 1990- 2011 GHGI data will
be submitted on 15/1/2013 to the EU, then to UNFCCC on 15/4/2013.
Slide 7 7 Background: UK GHG Inventory National System (2) National
Inventory Steering Committee Panel of representatives from
Government Departments, regulatory agencies, other organisations,
including Scottish Government. i.Prioritise & implement
inventory improvements. ii.Review the UK GHGI prior to data
submission to UNFCCC. iii.Communicate GHGI issues across
Government. iv.Includes representatives of regional and local
Government. Meets twice a year (today!), managed by DECC. The UK
NIS operates an inventory improvement programme that integrates
national-level and sub-national level priorities. Slide 8 8 8
Background: DA (Scottish) GHG Inventory Compilation Approach Slide
9 9 9 Background: DA and LA Inventory Compilation (1) We adopt the
basic principle that: Sum of DA or LA inventories = UK
Inventory...for each source and each pollutant. Incorporates
benefits of the UK GHGI: UK inventories subject to rigorous QA/QC,
reliable time series, has been developed over 20+ years of research
into UK sources. UK GHGI is a resource of emission factors, many
activity data, conversion factors etc. (Can fill gaps in local
knowledge.) X Constrains the DA inventory data to align with the UK
GHGI totals. e.g. sum of DA energy use in each economic sector is
constrained to that presented in DUKES. Slide 10 10 Background: DA
Inventory Compilation Method (2) Bottom-up estimates for sources
where we have comprehensive local data, such as: Industrial point
sources Road transport Domestic flight data Top-down or modelled
estimates for sources where we DONT have comprehensive local data,
such as: Combustion sources in domestic, commercial, small-scale
industry and public administration sectors (e.g. we use the DEMScot
model and Scottish Housing Condition Survey data to inform Scotland
share of UK-reported domestic emissions) Waste and sewage treatment
and disposal emissions F-gas emissions from refrigeration and other
sources Slide 11 11 Background: DA Inventory Compilation Method (3)
Use local parameters such as population, employment, housing
condition surveys (domestic), industrial production statistics.
Commercial confidentiality limits energy use data cannot access
detailed local AND sector-specific data. Overall local data is
available, but not split out by sector. Modelling approach to
derive estimates: o Metered fuels (gas, electricity) greater
accuracy than non-metered fuels (oils, solid fuels). o DA/LA
estimates for these sources are higher in uncertainty, and
inventory data are less sensitive to policy impacts. Slide 12 12
Background: Data Sources (1) Digest of UK Energy Statistics (DECC),
EUETS Pollution Inventories (EA, SEPA,NI DoE) Transport data (DfT,
CAA, shipping data) Companies & Trade Associations (e.g. UKPIA,
BCA, Corus) Other statistical sources (ONS, ISSB, BGS) Farming
surveys and UK-wide emission factor research (Rothamsted)
Countryside Surveys (more details from CEH) DECC Sub-national
Energy Statistics (DECC) Scottish Pollutant Release Inventory
(SEPA) Vehicle km data & DVLA data (DfT) Scottish Housing
Condition Survey data and DEMScot model (SG) Individual companies
(e.g. Alcan, Ineos, GSK Montrose, ExxonMobil..) Population,
employment, industrial production data (ONS) Gas network demand,
gas composition and leakage data (Scotia Gas) Waste water
statistics (Scottish Water) Waste management statistics (SEPA,
Defra) Slide 13 13 Background: Data Sources (2) Energy: (Business,
Public, Residential, Agricultural machinery) Sub-national energy
statistics: Limited compared to UK energy statistics: Industry and
Commercial, Agriculture, Residential greater uncertainty and less
detail than the UK energy statistics: no Scottish energy balance.
Fairly good gas data, but NO solid or liquid fuel data. Road
transport based on fuel sales and vehicle km. (see later in
presentation). EUETS data for some large energy users. Industrial
process (Industrial Process, Business) plant operator estimates
reported to environmental agencies e.g. Integrated Pollution
Prevention and Control (IPPC) & EUETS. Cement and lime kilns,
iron and steel works, aluminium and other non-ferrous metal plant,
chemical industries; Agriculture (Livestock & crops &
soils) Annual survey data & UK emission factors : arable
production and livestock numbers; Land Use, Land Use Change and
Forestry (LULUCF) regional survey data of land use, emission
factors and, modelled to calculate GHG emissions and carbon fluxes
between sources and sinks; Waste modelled emissions from the UK GHG
inventory, split out across the DAs based on local authority waste
disposal activity reporting - local shares of UK activity for
recycling, landfilling, incineration and other treatment and
disposal options. UK statistical data and improvements will impact
upon Scottish GHG data, e.g. recent revisions to energy balance
data on fuel use in sectors such as: refineries, petrochemicalsalso
have a large impact in Scotland. Slide 14 14 Background: GHG
Inventory: Scope GHG Inventories report annual emissions of all
anthropogenic GHG emissions. Annual: 1990 2010 (reported in 2012) =
2 year lag. Sources: NAEI source/activity categories (370) IPCC
(100) National Communication (9) Gases: Kyoto basket of six GHGs:
Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, HFCs, PFCs, SF 6 Carbon
dioxide: mainly from combustion of fuels in different economic
sectors, industrial processes, LULUCF sources and sinks Methane:
waste, agriculture Nitrous oxide: industrial processes, agriculture
F-gases: industrial processes & AC/Refrigeration Excluded:
Short-cycle biocarbon in the GHGI (e.g. CO 2 from plant biomass but
not CH 4 ) International shipping and aviation memo items for DA
estimates. DA: offshore oil & gas exploration and production
off-shore facilities Slide 15 15 Background: DA National
Communication categories Agriculture Livestock, Soils, crops &
field burning, energy use in Agriculture Forestry and Fishing
Business Energy use (combustion for heat and power in businesses)
Use of Solvents & HFC/PFC leakage from appliances (Air
conditioning, refrigeration, fire fighting, foams) Energy Supply
Energy production (electricity, solid & liquid fuels,
generation refining and mining and oil and gas extraction**)
Industrial Process Non energy. Fossil based carbon from feedstocks
(e.g. Limestone, metal ores, oil and natural gas) production and
use of HFC, PFCs & SF6. Land Use & Land Use Change Managed
land (e.g. forest, crops, grassland, settlements, wetlands) +
Change of use (e.g. Forest -> crop, crop grass) Public
Combustion of fossil fuels Residential Combustion of fossil fuels
(heating, cooking), garden machinery, aerosols & other
products, accidental fires Transport Civil aviation & airport
support vehicles, road vehicles, rail & rail infrastructure,
domestic shipping & fishing, military Waste Landfill, sewage,
incineration. ** Unallocated offshore oil & gas exploration and
production off-shore facilities Slide 16 16 Overview: GHG emissions
for Scotland, 2010 (Mt CO 2 e) By Source End User Non Traded &
Traded Split Share: 9.1% (76.5%, 8%, 3.5% for E, W & NI) of
total net UK GHG emissions Trend: 23.7% decline since the Base Year
(26%, 15%, 14.7% decline for E, W & NI). 0.2% < by source
(exported electricity) Share: 8.9% (E 79.9%, W 7.4%, NI 3.8%) of
total net UK GHG emissions Trend 31.1% decline since the Base Year
The non-traded share 54.9%; (Compared to UK 59.5%, E 62.2%, W 48.4%
& NI 77.4%) Scotland has a higher than UK-average EU ETS
emissions, high proportion of emissions from refineries, chemicals
and paper & pulp. Slide 17 17 Overview: GHG emissions for
Scotland, 2010 (Mt CO 2 e) By Source End User Non Traded &
Traded Split Share: 9.1% (76.5%, 8%, 3.5% for E, W & NI) of
total net UK GHG emissions Trend: 23.7% decline since the Base Year
(26%, 15%, 14.7% decline for E, W & NI). 0.2% < by source
(exported electricity) Share: 8.9% (E 79.9%, W 7.4%, NI 3.8%) of
total net UK GHG emissions Trend 31.1% decline since the Base Year
The non-traded share 54.9%; (Compared to UK 59.5%, E 62.2%, W 48.4%
& NI 77.4%) Scotland has a higher than UK-average EU ETS
emissions, high proportion of emissions from refineries, chemicals
and paper & pulp. Slide 18 18 Overview: GHG emissions for
Scotland, 2010 (Mt CO 2 e) By Source End User Non Traded &
Traded Split Share: 9.1% (76.5%, 8%, 3.5% for E, W & NI) of
total net UK GHG emissions Trend: 23.7% decline since the Base Year
(26%, 15%, 14.7% decline for E, W & NI). 0.2% < by source
(exported electricity) Share: 8.9% (E 79.9%, W 7.4%, NI 3.8%) of
total net UK GHG emissions Trend 31.1% decline since the Base Year
The non-traded share 54.9%; (Compared to UK 59.5%, E 62.2%, W 48.4%
& NI 77.4%) Scotland has a higher than UK-average EU ETS
emissions, high proportion of emissions from refineries, chemicals
and paper & pulp. Slide 19 19 Overview: GHG emissions for
Scotland, 2010 (Mt CO 2 e) By Source End User Non Traded &
Traded Split Share: 9.1% (76.5%, 8%, 3.5% for E, W & NI) of
total net UK GHG emissions Trend: 23.7% decline since the Base Year
(26%, 15%, 14.7% decline for E, W & NI). 0.2% < by source
(exported electricity) Share: 8.9% (E 79.9%, W 7.4%, NI 3.8%) of
total net UK GHG emissions Trend 31.1% decline since the Base Year
The non-traded share 54.9%; (Compared to UK 59.5%, E 62.2%, W 48.4%
& NI 77.4%) Scotland has a higher than UK-average EU ETS
emissions, high proportion of emissions from refineries, chemicals
and paper & pulp. Sector2009 UK GHGI (%) 2009 End Users GHGI
(%) Comment Energy production 350(All re-allocated to end users)
Business1530High electricity and oil use Transport2224Oil use
Public1.53.1Mainly electricity Residential1426Mainly electricity
Agriculture8.89.2Bit of oil use Waste3.2 (No fuel use) Slide 20 20
Overview: GHG emissions for Scotland, 2010 (Mt CO 2 e) By Source
End User Non Traded & Traded Split Share: 9.1% (76.5%, 8%, 3.5%
for E, W & NI) of total net UK GHG emissions Trend: 23.7%
decline since the Base Year (26%, 15%, 14.7% decline for E, W &
NI). 0.2% < by source (exported electricity) Share: 8.9% (E
79.9%, W 7.4%, NI 3.8%) of total net UK GHG emissions Trend 31.1%
decline since the Base Year The non-traded share 54.9%; (Compared
to UK 59.5%, E 62.2%, W 48.4% & NI 77.4%) Scotland has a higher
than UK-average EU ETS emissions, high proportion of emissions from
refineries, chemicals and paper & pulp. Power generation and
consumption data from DECC [1] (DECC, 2011b) indicates that in 2010
around 21% of all electricity generated in Scotland was exported to
England and Northern Ireland. [1] Power generation and consumption
data from DECC (DECC, 2011b) indicates that in 2010 around 21% of
all electricity generated in Scotland was exported to England and
Northern Ireland. Slide 21 21 Trends & Changes: Scottish by
Source Emission Trends 1990 - 2010 Slide 22 22 Trends &
Changes: Progress to targets The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009
: existing anthropogenic sources and sinks of emissions in
Scotland. Includes: Allowances for trading within the EU ETS, the
EU-wide trading scheme that has been operational since 2005
Scottish emissions from international aviation and shipping.. Slide
23 23 Trends & Changes: Changes in by source Emissions in
Scotland 1990 - 2010 Reductions LULUCF Industrial Process Waste
Increases Energy Residential Slide 24 24 Key Sources and Sinks 2010
CO2: most important CH4: Agriculture & Waste N2O: Agriculture
Energy Supply Transport LULUCF Slide 25 25 Sectoral Analysis:
Energy Supply UK electricity grid GHG factor basis for end user
inventories, so .investment in Scotland renewables wouldnt
necessarily pan out into inventory reductions IN SCOTLAND will lead
to reductions in reported emissions across the UK. Slide 26 26
Increase despite improvements in efficiency of transport vehicles,
as a result of strong growth in transport demand and increased
affordability of cars and fuel constrained (DUKES fuel sales) and
unconstrained (vehicle kilometre, vkm) approaches Sectoral
Analysis: Transport Slide 27 27 Sectoral Analysis: Residential
Increase in emissions cold winters and a resultant high demand for
fossil End User high consumption of electricity in the sector
improvements in housing energy efficiency and lower carbon
intensity of the electricity generation Slide 28 28 Sectoral
Analysis: Business lack of detail in the EU ETS dataset, Business
and Industrial Process emissions are not easy to separate declining
manufacturing and iron and steel industry emissions Increasing
F-Gas use End User: high consumption of electricity for heating,
lighting and operating equipment Slide 29 29 Sectoral Analysis:
Public Service building energy efficiency convert to the use of
gas-fired boilers End user = 193% of the by source emission High %
electricity use Slide 30 30 Sectoral Analysis: Industrial Process
Closure nitric acid plant, Ravenscraig iron and steel works,
Reduction in emissions from the chemicals and cement sectors lack
of detail in the EU ETS dataset, Business and Industrial Process
emissions are not easy to separate Slide 31 31 Sectoral Analysis:
Agriculture Almost 85% of total N 2 O fertiliser nitrogen use,
manure applications and grazing returns to soils declined by 21.6%
1990- 2010 from decline in livestock numbers (manure) and in
fertiliser nitrogen use CH4 affected by decline in numbers of
livestock (15.5% decline over the period 1990- 2010) End User:
Majority of emissions in the agriculture sector are not due to
energy consumption. Slide 32 32 Sectoral Analysis: LULUCF reduction
in emissions from land conversion to cropland from grassland and
forests. largest source = Cropland (5,321 ktCO 2 e in 2010)
(including maintenance and conversion to) releases carbon from
clearing of biomass and from ploughing of soils. Removals from the
maintenance of, and conversion to, forestland and grassland.
Long-term forest management (the extensive conifer plantations
established in the mid-20 th century are now reaching felling age,
with reduced removals from forest but with increased carbon stocks
in harvested wood products in recent years). Slide 33 33 Sectoral
Analysis: Waste The UK waste model methane from landfills based
statistics on waste arisings, degradation rates of different
components of waste, and UK-wide estimates of methane capture and
oxidation, both in the landfill surface layer and in flares and gas
engines.) Scotland DONT have any data specific to methane
combustion in flares and gas engines Assumptions on progressive
introduction of methane capture and oxidation systems within
landfill management Slide 34 34 Overview: Changes (due to new data
and/or improved inventory estimation methodologies) since 2011
estimates 2009 Recalculations : Business: (1,007 ktCO 2 e increase)
industrial combustion allocation of (OPG) use in Scotland across
the inventory time series and updated Inter-Departmental Business
Register; increased estimates by around 500 ktCO 2 e in Scotland in
2009. UK HFC model for refrigeration and air conditioning equipment
increased the estimates for Scotland in 2009 by 256 ktCO 2 e;
Energy Supply: (324 ktCO 2 e increase) revision of OPG use in
petroleum refining and revisions to gas oil allocations to the
upstream oil and gas sector. reduction in estimates for 2009 of
emissions from closed coal mines due to updated analysis from the
update to closed coal mine emission estimates. Waste Management:
(149 ktCO 2 e increase) from revisions to the UK waste model and
also revisions to use more DA-specific input data to derive
country-specific estimates. Base Year estimates have been for the
following sectors: Business: (789 kt CO 2 e increase) revision to
industrial combustion allocation of OPG use in Scotland across the
inventory time series and revisions to UK inventory allocations of
gas oil. Agriculture: (194 kt CO 2 e decrease) revisions to
emission estimates from agricultural soils. Waste Management: (96
kt CO 2 e increase) revisions to the UK GHGI landfill waste model
and revisions to the DA landfill waste method to utilise more
country-specific data for waste disposals to landfill. For more
details of revisions to DA GHG emission estimates, see Appendix 7.
Slide 35 35 Uncertainties: By Source UK (+-16%). England (+-14%)
Scotland (+-27%), Wales (+-19%) Northern Ireland (+-38%) Scottish
uncertainties high: LULUCF sources N2O from agric soils F-Gases:
2010 dispersed and heavily modelled and uncertain: In 1995, >80%
of F-gas industrial sources (manufacture, Aluminium production
etc.) 2010, ~70% refrigeration sources (UK F-gas model) ~ 20% from
aerosols From 2012 DA GHGI report: Appendix 1- Table A1.1 Estimated
Uncertainties in the DA GHG Inventories: Base Years, 2010 and Trend
Slide 36 36 Drivers to Scotland / DA GHGI Improvement Monitoring
against targets (Climate Change (Scotland) Act, WG CC Strategy, NI
DoE development of targets is on-going), carbon budgets GHGI data
underpins emission projections, policy appraisal, and cost-benefit
analysis of policies and programmes Reduce data uncertainty
(overshadows trends in some sectors) Improve data accuracy &
sensitivity: (1) better understanding of opportunities for GHG
savings, (2) reflect local policy impacts Slide 37 37 Scotland GHGI
Improvement Examples (1) STRATEGIC ISSUES EU ETS data needed
earlier from regulators to feed into DUKES data, as in other MS
(benefit to UK GHGI also) Needs more resources for regulators (SEPA
etc.) & stakeholder relationships with DECC ENHANCE
SCOTLAND-SPECIFIC DATA / SURVEYS e.g. Agriculture inventory method
needs to be more detailed if the GHGI is to be sensitive enough to
reflect changes in breeds, feeds, manure management Develop more
rigorous data capture systems, include local research findings
(Emission Factors & Activity Data) Slide 38 38 Scotland GHGI
Improvement Examples (2) DEVELOP NEW DATA MECHANISMS Very little
local data on energy use for domestic, commercial, small-scale
industry. Need more bottom-up data. Develop data reporting
requirements and access more information from local fuel suppliers,
gas grid operators, oil merchants etc. ENSURE FULL ACCESS TO
EXISTING DATA More electronically available data, less paper-based
regulation. Establish data supply agreements with key operators /
organisations, e.g. to overcome barriers of data confidentiality.
Need more bottom-up data and ability to correctly interpret
available data. Recent example is the need to better understand
precise fuel types used in major EU ETS facilities, to help resolve
data discrepancies with DUKES energy statistics. Slide 39 39
Summary of points Good Scottish GHG inventory = good quality
Scottish activity data and emission factors access to latest
research, access to your data gathering systems for policy
reporting, more surveys, better surveys etc. Transport GHGI data at
UK level resolved to sales data. Availability of both
DUKES-constrained and unconstrained data, Waste sector model
limitations, assumptions needed (UK and Scotland level) DONT have
any data specific to methane combustion in flares and gas engines
Very limited energy data no Scottish energy balance. Fairly good
gas data, but NO solid or liquid fuel data. total allocation of
gas, coal, oil use is not known Agricultural statistics Better
EUETS integration needed Time Willingness from UK/Scottish stats
Further integration with Policy makers to provide policy-specific
data or reporting outputs. End Users model: Electricity data by
sector are very limited for Scotland, Wales, N Ireland, England, so
there is high uncertainty on sector allocation. Slide 40 40
Devolved Administration GHG inventory Report
http://naei.defra.gov.uk/report_link.php?report_id=709 Spreadsheet
on detailed data Spreadsheet for Graphs and tables Slide 41 41 Glen
Thistlethwaite Manager, DA GHG inventory Ricardo-AEA The Gemini
Building Fermi Avenue Harwell Didcot OX11 0QR t: +44 (0)870 190
6584 e: [email protected] w:
http://www.ricardo-aea.com Justin Goodwin Director Aether 99 Milton
Park Abingdon, OX14 4RY UK t: +44 1243 512932 | Mobile: +44 7525
211 475. e: [email protected] w: www.aether-uk.com w:
www.environmenttools.com
