POLITICAL PARTIES, CAMPAIGNS, ELECTIONS,

VOTING AND MONEY

Pt. 1

History of US Political Parties

Parties are not mentioned in the Constitution

George Washington (the only nonpartisan president) thought parties were a terrible idea.

However, parties sprang up almost immediately after our political system came into being

History of US Political Parties

Welch, p. 153 1789: Federalists (pro-Constitution) vs.

Anti-Federalists (anti-Constitution) 1796: Federalists (Hamilton, northern

mercantile interests) vs. Democratic-Republicans (Jefferson, southern agrarians)

1815: Federalists die out as a party, brief non-partisan “Era of Good Feeling”

History of US Political Parties

1828: Democratic-Republicans split into National Republicans (John Quincy Adams) and Democrats (Andrew Jackson); the Jacksonian party is the direct ancestor of today’s Democratic Party

1832-1850’s: Whigs compete with Democrats

1856: Republican Party formed by different groups of Midwestern anti-slavery activists; this is the direct ancestor of today’s Republican Party

History of US Political Parties

1877: End of post-Civil War Reconstruction, Democratic ex-Confederates regain power in the South and essentially eliminate the Republican Party there

1896: Realignment: Republicans become the majority party everywhere except the South

1932: Realignment: Franklin D. Roosevelt’s election establishes the Democrats as the new majority party; African-American voters begin to shift their loyalty from the party of Lincoln to the party of FDR

History of US Political Parties

1950’s-1960’s: The Republican Party begins to re-emerge in the South. By the 1990’s, it is the clear majority party among white Southerners, who were traditionally the most Democratic group in the nation. Black Southerners (and black voters nationally) remain overwhelmingly Democratic.

History of US Political Parties

The US has had the same two major parties for 150 years. This is an extraordinarily stable political system, just as having the same Constitution since 1789 has given us an extraordinarily stable system of government.

By comparison, France adopted its current Constitution and party system in 1958

The countries of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union have developed completely new political systems since the fall of Communism in the late 1980’s-early 1990’s.

Moderation

Most US political discourse takes place around the center of the political system, with Democrats slightly to the left of center and Republicans slightly to the right of center.

More extreme ideologies (communism, fascism) have never gained traction in the US

Americans’ self-described ideology (Welch, p. 142): Moderate 32% Slightly liberal + liberal + extremely liberal 26% Slightly conservative + cons. + extremely cons. 44% Moderate + slightly liberal + slightly conservative 59%

Why Only Two Major Parties

at a Time? Single-member districts Only one person is elected from an area (Congressional

district, state legislative district, etc.) Winner-take-all elections

The one person who gets the most votes wins the whole thing.

In the 2008 presidential election, Obama got 52% of the vote and McCain got 45%.

McCain does not get to be President 45% of the time. Majority: the most votes Plurality: the most votes in an election involving more

than two people, even if not a majority 1992: Clinton 43%, Bush 38%, Perot 19%

In any given presidential election, 40% will support the Democratic candidate and 40% will support the Republican…

which voters decide the election?

Presidential elections are usually decided by the 20% of voters in the

middle. They tend to be independent and moderate. Successful presidential

candidates therefore tend to be perceived by most voters as moderate

rather than extremely liberal or conservative.

The one candidate who gets the largest number of votes in each of

these seats wins the seat

In order to win one seat, you have to get the most votes in

one district

2010 (6 Districts)1: 65%R, 29%D, 6% Others = 1 R2: 53%R, 44%D, 3% Others = 1 R3: 62%R, 36%D, 2% Others = 1 R4: 63%R, 29% D, 8% Others = 1 R5: 55%R, 45%D = 1 R6: 63% D, 36%R = 1 D

Total votes cast 1,337,008R 753,932 =56% votes, 83% seatsD 543,921 = 41% votes, 16% seatsO 39,155 = 3% votes, 0% seats

Alternative: Proportional Representation

Many different types of PR systems, used in different countries, e.g., Germany, Britain, Israel

A group of people, usually selected by a party, runs for a group of seats (multi-member districts)

The party’s percentage of the vote translates into their percentage of the seats

Example: Seven US House seats Voters vote for parties, not individual candidates

Republicans get 53% of the vote = 4 seats Democrats get 38% of the vote = 2 seats Libertarians get 9% of the vote = 1 seat It is considerably easier for minor parties to win seats

under PR than under SMD

Nomination vs. Election

Winning the party nomination for President requires appealing to the activists in your party. These people tend to be more ideologically extreme: Democratic activists are more liberal than the average voter, and Republican activists are more conservative than the average voter

Then you have to appeal both to the party base and to moderates in order to win the general election.

Candidates tend to run as more ideologically extreme during the primaries and more moderate during the general election.

Primaries A primary election is held among candidates of the

same party to win the party nomination for an office. The party nominees run against each other in the general election in November.

Open primary: All registered voters may vote. Closed primary: Only voters who are registered as

party members may vote (only D’s vote in the D primary, only R’s in the R primary)

Modified closed: Registered party members + independents may vote (D + I, but not R, in the D primary, R + I, but not D, in the R primary)

States such as South Carolina, which do not register voters by party, can’t have a closed primary.

Primaries

A couple of states have variations on these systems Louisiana: Top two finishers in the primary,

regardless of party, run against each other in the general election (may be two D or two R)

Washington: All candidates run against each other in the same primary, top finisher in each party competes in the general election

Runoff primaries: In nine Southern states, if no candidate gets a majority in the primary, the top two candidates have an additional election called a runoff; this is also true in NC but the threshold is 40%

Primaries and Caucuses Most states use primary elections to select delegates

to the national conventions which choose the party nominees for president and vice president

Caucuses are party organizational meetings. Some states (e.g., Iowa) use a caucus system to select their delegates

This involves attending a series of party meetings and being elected as a delegate to each meeting at a higher level

Precinct caucus = held at your neighborhood polling place County convention = delegates from precinct caucuses Congressional district convention = delegates from

counties in a CD State convention National convention

Electoral College

We don’t have a national election for President and Vice President. We have 51 separate state elections (including DC)

Each state has a number of electoral votes equal to its number of Senators + Representatives Wyoming: 2 Sens. + 1 Rep. = 3 electoral votes California: 2 Sens. + 53 Reps. = 55 electoral

votes Under the Constitution, each state

legislature determines how its electors are chosen

Electoral College

Each state + DC now has a law that electors are chosen by popular vote

BUT there is no right to vote for president under the US Constitution

The Florida legislature could simply have elected the state’s electors to solve the 2000 controversy – the popular vote wouldn’t have mattered at all

In all states but two, the candidate who gets the most popular votes gets all the electoral votes

In Maine and Nebraska, the candidate who gets the most votes in each congressional district gets one vote and the winner of the state as a whole gets two – Obama got 1 vote in Nebraska in 2008 while McCain got the rest

Electoral College

The candidate who gets the most electoral votes wins

Usually the same as the candidate who gets the most popular votes

Four times in US history, one candidate has gotten more popular votes and the other has gotten the most electoral votes

Didn’t happen between 1888 and 2000

2000 Election

BUSH GORE

CT (8) 561,094 FL (25) 2,912,790 HI (4) 137,845 MO (11) 1,189, 924 RI (4) 130,555

816,015 2,912,253 205,286 1,111,138 249,508

2000 Election

BUSH GORE

CT (8) 561,094 FL (25) 2,912,790 * HI (4) 137,845 MO (11) 1,189, 924 * RI (4) 130,555 Pop vote 4,932,208 Electoral vote 36

816,015 * 2,912,253 205,286 * 1,111,138 249,508 * 5,294,200 16

How the Electoral College affects campaign strategy

The states that get the attention are the big, competitive, “swing” states (e.g., Ohio)

No point in campaigning in states where one candidate will win handily

SC is heavily R, DC heavily D Romney doesn’t need to campaign in SC

to win here, and there is no point in Obama campaigning here because he won’t win anyway

The reverse is true in DC

A majority (270) of the electoral vote is required to win…

http://ivn.us/neutral-zone/2012/10/25/what-happens-if-there-is-an-electoral-vote-tie/?fb_action_ids=895374166286&fb_action_types=og.likes&fb_source=timeline_og&action_object_map=%7B%22895374166286%22%3A236043489858390%7D&action_type_map=%7B%22895374166286%22%3A%22og.likes%22%7D&action_ref_map=[]

If there’s no majority

The electors meet in December. The votes are reported to Congress. The votes are counted at a joint session of the

House and Senate. If no one gets a majority, the House elects the

President and the Senate elects the Vice President. The House votes by state: Each state, regardless of

population, gets one vote Wyoming’s one representative gets one vote California’s 55 representatives get one vote, total States whose Reps. are equally split between D

and R probably don’t vote

If there’s no majority in the Electoral College

The Republicans are currently the majority of a majority of House delegations. If this is the case after the elections, a majority of state delegations in the House would vote to elect Romney as president.

Senators vote individually for Vice President. If the Democrats regain control of the Senate, a majority of Senators would probably vote to elect Biden as vice president.

If there’s a tie in the Senate, the incumbent VP breaks the tie. Biden could break the tie to re-elect himself.

Result: President Romney, Vice President Biden The 12th Amendment was adopted specifically to prevent

a president and vice president from opposite parties from serving together. It’s worked ever since.