Making a difference with Operational Research

Making a Real Difference: Operational Research

Charlene Timewell, ORS Education Officer

Ian Seath, Director, Improvement Skills Consulting Ltd.

Felicity McLeister, ORS Pro Bono Project Manager

Why is O.R. the “Science of Better” and where can it take you?

“It’s a Dog’s Life”: A Case Study in Operational Research

Pro Bono O.R. for the Third Sector

Session Overview

www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 3

What is Operational Research?

Operational Research

Operational Research (O.R.) is the discipline of combining a way of thinking and communicating with appropriate, often advanced, analytical methods to help make better decisions in businesses and other enterprises.


When is O.R. useful?

When a decision is complex or it’s not clear what the main problem is

When it’s uncertain what the outcome of different actions will be

When you don’t know how well things are working or think they could work better

When you are worried about risks

When you need to take account of the views of different stakeholder groups


How is O.R. useful?M

odel

ling

Ris

k A

naly

sis

Ga

me

Th

eo

ry Data MiningLinear ProgrammingScheduling

Simulation

Bin Packing

Hyp

er-Heu

ristics

Critical Path

Analysis

Evo

lutio

nary C

om

pu

tationMarkov

Decision

Processes OptimisationMeta-Heuristics

Systems

Dynam

ics

Queuing Theory

Statistics & Probability

Val

idat

ion Assessment


Why is O.R. the Science of Better?

Supermarkets

Understanding people’s buying patterns

Determining the number of staff needed on checkouts and when

Calculating order quantities and delivery times

CASE STUDY: Waitrose Improve automated demand forecasting

system

Statistics and simulation

Significant overall cost reduction of 2%


O.R. is the Science of Better

Transport Planning Calculating cost effective,

environmentally conscious routes

Planning loads and scheduling deliveries to consolidate orders

Optimising staffing requirements and fleet size

CASE STUDY: Blackheath Products Reliable vehicle routing solution prior to

major business expansion Optimisation Fuel and mileage savings of 20%, reduced

planning time by 75%


Where can O.R. take you?



Figures correct as of October 2015, source:

www.completeuniversityguide.co.uk

Numerate Careers:

Average starting salaries

for graduates



Activity six months after graduation from first degrees by subject,

2012/13




Where to Look for Experience & Jobs

Annual Careers Open Day: 23rd November 2016



Placements, Internships, & Graduate Schemes

www.glassdoor.co.uk, e.g.

www.gradcracker.com, e.g.



Company Website, e.g.

Volunteering Opportunities, e.g.

Direct with employers or charities

O.R. in Schools (ORiS)

http://bit.ly/1teCxXPhttp://ibm.co/1kq3pWAhttp://bit.ly/1FP84vK

http://bit.ly/1teCxXP

http://ibm.co/1kq3pWA

http://bit.ly/1FP84vK


The OR Society

The OR Society

The professional membership body of the Operational Research (O.R.) community.

The longest-established and second largest O.R. association worldwide with almost 3000 members across 53 countries.

A registered charity and a company limited by guarantee, governed by its Board of Trustees and Committees.


The OR Society

Free Student Membership

Access to all ORS journals and magazines

Build your background knowledge and your CV by attending events and volunteering with ORS outreach

Apply for CandORS accreditation

Network with other students and O.R. professionals (Public Lectures, Conferences, SiGs, & Regional Societies)

Discounted rates for conferences and training courses


ORiS: Making a Difference

O.R. in Schools

“every student

should know what

O.R. is”

For Professionals

An opportunity to share

O.R skills with the next

generation

Free support, training,

and resources from The

OR Society

For Teachers

Free O.R resources

and support for the

classroom

For Students

Secondary onwards

To learn what O.R. is and

how maths is used in

everyday life

During University

To gain experience and

skills for CV while

promoting maths/O.R. to

younger students

To explore career

opportunities in O.R.



Introducing

Algorithms using

Board Games



Teaching Linear Programming

using Lego


Practical Exercise

∞ 1st person in the line, look at the person on your left.

∞ If you are taller, swap.

∞ 2nd person in the line, look at the person on your left.


∞ 3rd person in the line, look at the person on your left.


∞ And so on…until you reach the end of the line.

∞ The last person in the line should now be the tallest and can turn

around.

∞ Start again. The end of the line is the person next to someone who

has turned around.


Real-life applications of maths








ORiS: Student Volunteers

Volunteer Benefits

All resources/materials are provided

Travel & accommodation expenses

reimbursed

Free training courses and workshops

Networking opportunities with other students

and O.R. professionals

Experience for your CV


Further Information

Find out more…

www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk

www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk

www.TheORSociety.com

Get in touch…

+44 (0)121 233 9300

[email protected]

@ORinSchools

http://www.learnaboutor.co.uk/

http://www.scienceofbetter.co.uk/

http://www.theorsociety.com/

mailto:[email protected]

“It’s a dog’s life”

A Case Study in Operational

Research

The OR Society: www.theorsociety.com

Pro Bono O.R.: www.theorsociety.com/Pages/Probono/Probono.aspx

For more information

Email [email protected]

Phone: 0121 233 9300

http://www.theorsociety.com/Pages/Probono/Probono.aspx



Can we answer the following questions?

• How many dogs there are “in the system” in the UK and how do they move between different parts of the system?

• How many dogs are relinquished and why? Which type of dog?

• Can we forecast the likely impact of different interventions ?

The RSPCA is the UK’s leading animal welfare charity.

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=yDiOvXSt2I3rpM&tbnid=ER9wULoPAfPbsM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://velcrodog.co.uk/2013/08/13/charity-news-rspca-choices/&ei=ZLXbUvKEFqi30QW7nYC4DA&psig=AFQjCNGVS1NbIEifH_XVV1SAtDMzGN7bLw&ust=1390216873888738

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=yDiOvXSt2I3rpM&tbnid=ER9wULoPAfPbsM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://velcrodog.co.uk/2013/08/13/charity-news-rspca-choices/&ei=ZLXbUvKEFqi30QW7nYC4DA&psig=AFQjCNGVS1NbIEifH_XVV1SAtDMzGN7bLw&ust=1390216873888738

Key project stages

• Review the available data

• Design and build a model

• Develop recommendations for possible uses and future development of the model

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=XW9-HQ6Np3uLhM&tbnid=G-ZY1eNE2Nl5rM:&ved=&url=http://www.greenparkkennels.com/about-us-dog-kennels/dog-reading-book-2/&ei=HaYMVLqMEJbmavP2gcAF&bvm=bv.74649129,d.d2s&psig=AFQjCNEjuPoPxgaXKBkTGudK1iVBkz04aw&ust=1410201501764720

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=XW9-HQ6Np3uLhM&tbnid=G-ZY1eNE2Nl5rM:&ved=&url=http://www.greenparkkennels.com/about-us-dog-kennels/dog-reading-book-2/&ei=HaYMVLqMEJbmavP2gcAF&bvm=bv.74649129,d.d2s&psig=AFQjCNEjuPoPxgaXKBkTGudK1iVBkz04aw&ust=1410201501764720

What data would you want to collect and where would you find it?Workshop exercise 1

Literature Review

• Literature Review of relevant papers and reports

• ~50 different sources

• ~100 data points and times series

• Assessment of data quality

Can we model the UK dog population?Workshop exercise 2

Stock

Inflows

Outflows

A Stocks and Flows Model of UK dogs

• A Stocks and Flows Model helps us to understand the “system” in which dogs exist; where they are and how they move between different parts of the system

• Task 2a: decide what are the four “stocks” of dogs that you would want to include in a model, based on the overall population data from the literature review

Stock 1

Stock 4

Stock 2

Stock 3


• Here is a model answer that defines four main stocks of dogs

• Task 2b: what do you think are the inflows and outflows that lead to increases and reductions in each of the stocks?

• N.B. there may be more than one inflow and/or outflow for each stock

Companion dogs

Working dogs

In Rescue

Strays


Companion dogs (99.8%)

Working dogs

In Rescue

Strays

• Births

• Imports

• Deaths

• Exports

• Births

• Imports

• Deaths

• Deaths• Deaths • Births • Births

• Imports

What factors and interventions affect the flows?Workshop exercise 3

Factors affecting the flows

Canine birth & death rates

Political

Economic

Social

Technology

Legal

Environment

• If you were the RSPCA, what interventions would you want to make to improve the system?

The Model

Stray dogs

Dogs in welfare

Owned dogs

Owned births

Owneddeaths

Stray births

Stray deaths

Welfarebirths

Welfare deaths

Owned dogs to welfare

Welfare dogs to owned

Owned dogs to stray

Stray dogs to ownedStray dogs to welfare

Imported owned dogs

Dogs imported to

welfare

Owned dog

exports

Number of dogs

microchipped

Owner education

level re dogs

Welfare life expectancy

Owned dog lifeexpectancy

Stray dog life

expectancy

Space available in

welfare

Euthanasia policy

Emmigration

Number of dogbreeders

Number of puppy

farms

Funding for welfare

Welfare capacity

Demand for

dogs in UK

Number ofowned dogs

having puppies

Demand for dogs -

non-UK

Disposable income

Insurance rates

Number ofdogs lost

Number ofdogs

abandoned

Number of dogs

neutered

9.4m (23)

2009 LB: 12,340

2010 LB:10,630

est 1,250 (300to 2130)

111,000 peryear (13)

Strays back to owner -

53,280 per year (13)

Rehomed - 9,990

per year (13)

Put to sleep/die 8,880

per year (13)

Working dogs

27,750 per year (13)

Entering welfare:

129,743 per year (1)

0.5% of welfare inflows (27, scaled)

11.4% of outflow died (27)LB 7142 euthanised (1)

Assume 0

Welfare dogs reunited withowner - 12.5% of those

entering = 16,218 (1). 7.7%of those entering (27)

Rehomed - 80.9%of outflows (27)

69.5% of welfare

inflows (27, scaled)

30% of welfare inflows (27,

scaled) - this includes LA and

public straying dogs

11.4% of dogs per

year? (36)

25% of dogs peryear? (est from

24, 41)

12 years (34)

4% of microchipped are from Ireland,

3% from other EU, 2% from outside

EU - needs scaling up by 2% (24)

50,000 dogs imported

from Ireland per year (31)

Working dogsto owned

greyhounds - 3,910

per year (33)

Workingdog births

Workingdog deaths

Working dog life

expectancyRequirements for

working dogs

Working dogs to

welfareAt least 2500police dogs

(45)

How the RSPCA has been able to use the results

• Helping to scope the direction of their campaign to tackle the illegal trade in puppies

• Using the data to inform their response to DEFRA’sconsultation on overhaulingexisting pet vending legislation

Pro Bono O.R. (Operational Research)

for the Third Sector

Webpage: www.theorsociety.com/Pages/Probono/Probono.aspx

Blog: http://probonoOR.blogspot.co.uk/



Phone: 0121 233 9300


http://probonoor.blogspot.co.uk/


Pro Bono O.R.

• What is Pro Bono O.R. and how did it come about?

• What are its aims?

o To help Third Sector organisations to do a better job

o To promote O.R. in the Third Sector

o To promote effective use of O.R.

How it works: organisations

• Expression of interest

• Registration form

• Scoping conversation

• Project scope sent to volunteers

• Organisation selects volunteer

• Pre project survey

• Project proposal drawn up

• Project commences

• Feedback sought

• Post project survey

• The role of a volunteer:

• Who are the volunteers

• Work with organisation to specify project;

• Undertake project, either individually or in teams;

• Write up and/or present their work wherever appropriate;

• Mentor junior volunteers.

• O.R./analytical professionals

• Retired

• Consultants

• Government employees

• Employed professionals

• Academics

How it works: volunteers

Projects

Volunteers

• 67 projects advertised

• 45 projects completed

• 22 active projects

• Over 400 volunteers

• 173 volunteers applied for projects

• 89 volunteers on projects

The story so far…

Some example case studies

RSPCA

• Modelling the UK dog population

Elfrida Rathbone Camden

• Designing an outcomes framework to measure impact

Crimestoppers Trust

• Improving performance whilst minimising cost

Who we have worked with

How to get involved

• Sign up online http://www.theorsociety.com/Pages/Probono/Probono.aspx

• Come and chat to me now

• Drop me an email [email protected]



Webpage:

www.theorsociety.com/Pages/Probono/Probono.aspx

Blog:

http://probonoOR.blogspot.co.uk/

Connect with me via:

@FMcLeister

Felicity McLeister

Further information



Phone: 0121 233 9300


http://probonoor.blogspot.co.uk/


Data & Analytics

Making a difference with Operational Research