Idiro Analytics - What is Rotational Churn and how can we tackle it?

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What is rotational churn

– and how can we tackle it?


What we’ll cover

1. Definition2. The problem of rotational churn3. Effects 4. Causes & categories5. Combating spinning


What is rotational churn?(also known as spinning)

• One of your customers gets a new subscription from you

• …and gets rid of the old SIM (and sometimes the phone too)• …without telling you

So this customer appears on your systems as 2 people:

•A leaver•A new joiner


Rotational Churn in Context

How a typical spinner is likely to behave when they change their handset

SpinChurn or spin, to

best new customer offer

UpgradeChurn and bring their number or

upgrade

Brand loyaltyHigh Low

Loyalt

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o

ph

on

e n

um

ber

Hig

hLow


The Cost of Rotational Churn

1. Spinning wastes money and resources on: • Welcome packs, welcome calls…• Save / winback,

2. The Churn rate is overstated

3. Acquisition campaign success rates are overstated

4. Spinning can increase churn - many spinners are potential true churners

5. Valuable customer history data for spinners is lost.


What Triggers Rotational Churn?

All manner of things...

1. The customer’s phone is stolen or permanently lost.

2. The customer’s phone is broken.

3. The customer gets a new phone with work, from the same operator as they are currently on.

4. The customer receives a phone as an unsolicited gift

5. The customer wants a new phone e.g. because he / she perceives her phone is out of date.

6. The customer decides to change her number

7. The customer wishes to avoid a debt and stay on the same network


Measuring Rotational Churn

4 methods:

1. IMSI / IMEI matching2. Market research (calling customers)3. Name & address matching4. Idiro Fingerprinting

Of the 4 methods, Idiro Fingerprinting is by far the most comprehensive. The other 3 should also be use where possible.


Idiro Fingerprinting: the solution

Communication patterns in communities are relatively stable over time.



However, if someone were to leave the community…



They leave a structural hole in the community.



If a newcomer fills this structural hole and re-establishes many of the links of the person who departed then the newcomer is very likely to be the same person who departed.


How Idiro Identifies Spinners

Principle 1:• A subscriber may change the phone number

as a spinner, but this would not change his community.

Principle 2:• Social networks are fairly stable over time.• The community is stable over time and

everyone has his unique community.


Output of Idiro Fingerprinting

Churner NewcomerProbability that Churner and

Newcomer are the same person

7941 111111 7941 222222 99.3%7941 345345 7941 369369 98.3%7941 191191 7941 239111 95.0%7941 909909 7941 897722 94.6%7941 888111 7941 349922 82,1%7941 167167 7941 224444 76.8%7941 611009 7941 300011 71.1%7941 171411 7941 800022 71.0%

• The Idiro Fingerprinting model matches customers to new joiners – and gives a probability score

• Idiro also provides consulting support in tackling the problem of rotational churners


Exploiting the results of Idiro Fingerprinting

Measure

Focus

Change

•Correct the headline churn rate•Correct the acquisition rate and cost per subscriber

•MIS / market research on spinners to segment by:

•Acquisition offer (MIS)•Retail channel (MIS)•Trigger (mkt research) •Etc.

•Develop improved upgrade propositions / care strategy / communications to address different types of spin -> reduce spin and true churn rates


For more information on rotational churn and how to

tackle it, contact Idiro

[email protected]

Data & Analytics

Idiro Analytics - What is Rotational Churn and how can we tackle it?