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Hilary Stevens' presentation on Workforce 2031: the changing age profile of the workforce in the South West
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Workforce 2031: the changing age profile of the workforce
in the South West
Hilary StevensResearch Fellow, SLIM
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Aims
■ Explore how the size of the working age population will change over the next twenty years
■ Identify impact of changes in state pension age
■ Describe how the age structure will change over time
■ Demonstrate that areas with the oldest workforces will age fastest creating wider intra-regional differences in age profile
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A bit of context……
■ EU-27 population projected to increase by almost 20 million people between 2008 and 2050.
■ UK expected to be one of the fastest growing so that by 2050 the UK will have the largest population of all EU-27 countries. It is currently third behind Germany and France.
■ Sub-national projections suggest the South West will have 1¼ million more residents in 2031 than in 2006.
■ All local authority areas in the South West will share in this growth.
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…more context
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Local Authority Working age residents per dependent age
(2008)
Working age residents per dependent age
(2031)
National Ranking 2008 (out of
354)
City of Bristol 2.1 2.3 20
Exeter 2.1 2.3 22
Plymouth 1.8 1.6 55
Swindon 1.7 1.7 66
Bath & NE Somerset 1.7 1.8 74
……
West Dorset 1.1 1.0 347
East Devon 1.1 1.1 349
West Somerset 1.1 1.0 351
East Dorset 1.1 1.0 352
Christchurch 1.0 0.9 354
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Local Authority % working age residents age 50 and
over (2008)
% working age residents age 50 and
over (2031)
National Ranking 2008 (out of
354)
Isles of Scilly 41.7 25.0 1
West Somerset 36.2 47.5 2
East Dorset 34.7 43.2 6
West Dorset 34.3 43.0 8
Caradon 33.1 38.1 12
Bournemouth 22.6 26.4 280
Plymouth 22.4 25.0 297
Swindon 22.4 29.4 299
Exeter 18.9 20.2 337
City of Bristol 17.8 20.8 346
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Summary
■ Working age population will increase in absolute terms…
■ But will decline relative to the size of the population of dependent age
■ Changes to state pension age will account for a large proportion of the increase
■ Areas with the oldest workforces will age fastest creating wider intra-regional differences in age profile
www.swslim.org.uk
Summary
■ Working age population will increase in absolute terms…
■ But will decline relative to the size of the population of dependent age
■ Changes to state pension age will account for a large proportion of the increase
■ Areas with the oldest workforces will age fastest creating wider intra-regional differences in age profile
www.swslim.org.uk
Thank you for listening!
Hilary StevensResearch Fellow
SLIMUniversity of Exeter
Tel: 01392 [email protected]
