energy, environment, education and economics:

Imagineering South Africa’s Future to 2030Imagineering South Africa’s Future to 2030

Towards a 2030 vision for South Africa

Welcome Message

By Michael LeeFounder & Chairman

Futures Thinking…by Joe Public

Tomorrow never comes…wishful thinking…rumours…myths

Futures Thinking…by Woody Allen

“I am interested in thefuture. It’s where I plan tospend the rest of my life.”

Futures Thinking…by the Military

“The military are always planningto fight the last war over again withbetter weapons.”

Harold A Linstone, US Futurist

Futures Thinking…by Eskom

LOAD SHEDDING STATUS

“Eishkom” status

The Price of Future Denial = R50 Bn**NERSA’s estimation of power crisis of 2007-2008

BUT…Change is in the air…..

LOAD SHEDDING STATUS

Futures Thinking…by Mel Gibson

“Passive adaptation to a deteriorating environment is aroad to disaster.”

Jamshid Gharajedaghi, Systems Thinker and Futurist

Futures Thinking…by Business

Only one of the original companiesin the Dow Jones index participatedin its centenary celebration in 1996

During the 2008 credit crisis, the five largest U.S. investment banks, withcombined liabilities or debts of $4 trillion, either went bankrupt (LehmanBros), were taken over by other companies (Bear Stearns & MerrillLynch), or were bailed-out by the U.S. government (Goldman Sachs &Morgan Stanley). In addition, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, with nearly$5 trillion in mortgage obligations, were placed into receivership.

in its centenary celebration in 1996– death is common in business!

Futures Thinking…by our Government

“Lack of a coherent long-term plan has weakened our ability toprovide clear and consistent policies. It has limited our capacity tomobilise all of society in pursuit of our developmental objectives. Ithas hampered our efforts to prioritise resource allocations... Inaddition, weaknesses in coordination of government have led topolicy inconsistencies and, in several cases, poor service deliveryoutcomes. This Government is determined to fix these weaknesses.”

Green Paper “National Strategic Planning”, August 2009

Futures Thinking…by Futurists

“The future can be explored, colonized, imaginedand created.”

Richard Slaughter, Australian Futurist and complier of theKnowledge Base for Futures Studies

Futures Thinking…by Futurists

Future time is a conceptual space for design, forfor plans, for strategy, for dreams…it may be themost under-utilised resource on the planet. itcontains multiple possibilities which can beexpressed as scenarios.

Futures Thinking…the Paradox of Time

The PAST can be known but we are powerless tochange it, whereas ..

the FUTURE cannot be known yet it can bechanged… SO….

….Become a Future Activist!

“Those who act with sustained and strongintention are the creators of the future.”

Bertrand de Jouvenel, The Art of Conjecture

Activism, South African Style!

Future Activism in Alignment

Fly at equal following distances

Fly at same speed

Fly inwards towards centre

Future Activism in Focus

“Let’s not solve the wrong problems.”

Gibbons and Voyer, Science Council of Canada, 1974

Five Future Activism Focus Points =The Castle of Good Hope

ETHOS

ENERGYENVIRONMENT ENERGYENVIRONMENT

ECONOMICSEDUCATION

Path-finding for South Africa to 2030

ETHOS

ENERGYENVIRONMENT ENERGYENVIRONMENT

ECONOMICS EDUCATION

Foresight–Based Decision-Making

EmergentContext

ResourcesObjectives

Good Future-DirectedDecision-Making

Foresight–Based Decision-Making

Cold War

New rocket &computer

technologies

Win spacerace, win cold

war

President Kennedy’s MoonVision

Foresight–Based Decision-Making

New prosperitybased on oil

economy

new petrol-driven

vehicles

Create newmass market forcars; 15 million

Model Ts by1928

Henry Ford’s Vision of a People’sCar – The Model T (1908-1909)

Foresight–Based Decision-Making

Fossil fueldepletion – new

energy order

Renewable &Nuclear power

Create newlocalised,

sustainablewealth sources

President Zuma’s Vision of aRenewed South Africa

Final thought ….

A key principle of systems thinking is that thelogic which led to a problem cannot solve thatlogic which led to a problem cannot solve thatproblem – a higher order of logic, a differentkind of thinking, is required to move forward.Become a future activist by being an agent ofpositive, foresight-based change. But what is

your road map for the future?