Voiron-Canicio - Input2012

The Geoprospective Approach

Christine Voiron-Canicio – UMR 7300 ESPACE – équipe de Nice

Christine Voiron - Canicio

ESPACE – Université de Nice / CNRS

“Geoprospective” research project of CNRS –

GDR MAGIS (Method and Application

for Geomatics and Spatial Information)

Outline

1. From prospective to geoprospective

U.M.R. 6012 ESPACEC. Voiron

1. From prospective to geoprospective

2. Methodologies and models

3. Discussion and perspectives

1. From Prospective to Geoprospective

Prospective / Foresight

Prospective for planning


Top-down foresight

Bottom-up prospective

Territorial prospective

• at the national level: DATAR

• at the local level: Regions,

• Both prospectives fall into the class of Strategic or normative prospectives.

• Focus group narrative methods scenarii : images of the future


Spatial forecast or spatial prospective

• Beside this normative prospective, there is a

prospective of knowledge aimed at investigating

the future through the use of scientific methods

(Mermet 2005, Loinger 2006).


• The spatial forecast appraoch is connected with it

(Casanova 2010).

Spatial forecast or spatial prospective

• The aim of the spatial forecast is determining the

sensitivity of a territory to changes, by using spatio-

temporal analysis:

– Spatial dynamics : trajectories

– Emerging trends in its trajectory (weak signals),


– Emerging trends in its trajectory (weak signals),

– Resources

– Constraints (choices are not entirely free, but

multiconstrained, especially according to higher level

interactions)

– degree of freedom for planning

Geoprospective

Definition:

• Geoprospective aims at anticipating the plausible

futures of territories, rather at large scale:

- using methods which take into account the spatial

dynamics through models,

- performing simulations and spatialising scenarii of


- performing simulations and spatialising scenarii of

evolution,

- working interactively with groups of actors

concerned by the problem to be solved.

In the Geoprospective process what matters is not so much

the event generating the change that how the space will

react to this event.

• Geoprospective was

created by researchers

working in spatial

modelling or

environmental

modelling,

Geoprospective


• so, three branches exist

: territorial prospective

and environmental

prospective, and spatial

forecast linked to

geoprospective.

2. Methodologies and models

• Nowadays, the geoprospective approach is not still

formalised.

• Each branch keeps using its methods and tools.


• For example, in environmental prospective, the

spatialised scenarii are based on a 3 steps process : 1)

building a knowledge basis, 2) choosing prospective

scenarii and performing spatially explicit simulations, 3)

validating outputs dealing with actors.

• The role devoted to space is varying

according to the goal of the modelling:

Methodologies and models

• Spatially explicit

modelling (CA, MSA,

spatio-morphological


spatio-morphological

model) : to project

land-use change

(Houet, Hubert-Moy,

Cheylan, Lajoie)




• Graphic modelling, to

draw spatial dynamics

in order to confront the


in order to confront the

multiple points of view

on a question and to

generate debate about

future changes

(Lardon & Piveteau

2008)




• Participatory modelling : Companion modelling.

Spatial modelling is considered as a mediator to

understand perceptions and behaviors of actors


understand perceptions and behaviors of actors

(Bécu 2006, Etienne 2011) :




• Anticipating the change

by crossing objective

data and subjective


data and subjective

knowledge about space

(its value, its stakes)

• Ex. Reactivity to change

indicator

(Loubier, Voiron-Canicio)

3. Discussion and perspectives

Summary :

• The goal of Geoprospective is anticipating, by

simulations, the plausible spatial changes of territorial

systems; focusing on spatial change but always taking

into account the role of the various actors (present and

future), their adaptability.


future), their adaptability.

• Geoprospective differs from geomatics or spatial

modelling ; both are tools used in some parts of the

process.

Discussion and perspectives

Geoprospective deals with complex systems

behaviorsSpatial system

Social system

ChangeInternal and external


Spatial structures

trajectories resources

adaptability

Filters

practicesmental

representations

Constraints, path dependence

Discussion and perspectives

The challenge is fourfold :

i) Better integrating the role of space and the role of actors

at each step of the prospective process, their interaction

and retroaction,

ii) Integrating the multi-scale factors of land cover


ii) Integrating the multi-scale factors of land cover

evolution,

iii) Better linking quantitative and qualitative data into the

spatial models

iv) co-building simulations with actors and communicating

results not only towards decision makers but also

towards civil society.


Thank you

Business

Voiron-Canicio - Input2012