Virtual Worlds Bauhinia July09

IMMERSIVE 3D “VIRTUAL WORLDS”

prepared for “Friends of Bauhinia”

16 July 2009, Hong Kong

Claus Nehmzow

1Monday, 20 July 2009

© Alcus International Ltd. 2009

3D “Virtual Worlds” and their applications

• Virtual Worlds-What are virtual worlds-Applications in business, education and public sector

• Illustration of use for public policy consultation• Technology and Implementation• Costs, benefits, risks


VIRTUAL WORLDS



Virtual world: a real-time, shared experience

InteractiveAnonymous

Co-PresencePresence

Spatial



Virtual worlds continue to attract investment and a growing number of consumers

• Virtual worlds today have more than 300 million users - ... with 70% younger than 18 - 1 billion users predicted for 2012

• $919 million invested in virtual world companies for 12 month prior Oct ’08 - $1 billion prior to Oct ‘07 (Virtual Worlds Management)

• Virtual goods represent a US$1.5 billion market- ... $40 million per month virtual goods traded in Second Life

alone

Source: KZero, July 2008, Park Associates: Oct ’08, Strategic Analysis, Oct ’08, Virtual Worlds Management, In-Stat, Nov ’08, Virtual Greats



Age 8Age 30+

StardollMeez

Second Life15m

Mycosm

FootballSuperstars

LEGO Universe

Cars

IMVU

20m

vSide

vMTV 3mThere

Near

Robot Galaxy

Franktown

Club PonyPals

sMeet

Vizwoz

Habbo100m

Gaia

13m

Kaneva

Action Allstars

7m

goSupermodel

Whyville 3m

Home

PoptropicaWebcarzz

My Animal Family

Cyber Town

Moshi Monsters

Chapatiz

Webkinz

Handipoints1m

Club Penguin

45m

Twinity

19m

2m

Utherverse 2m

Black Mamba

Hello Kitty

HiPiHi GeoSimPhilly Amazing

Worlds

Xivio

Vivaty

Whirled

Barbie Girls

Chobots

Empire of Sports

Kiwi Heroes

6m

Frenzoo

Woogiworld

Jumpstart

Konstruction Zone

2m Buildabearville

20m

15m

SportsBLOX

My Mini Life

ERepublic

1m

Activeworlds 1m

Chugginton

SmallWorlds

Kidstudio

Live or open beta

In development/private betaCopyright K Zero 2008

Permission required prior to republishing

Launched in

vLES

Onverse

iheartland

Medikidz

Interzone

Kidscom

Lively

1.5m

No data shown for worlds under 1m registered accounts. Includes estimates.

www.kzero.co.uk21m

KooDooZ

SceneCaster 2m

Virtual Tweens

Planet CazmoGrockit

Digital DollhouseNeopets

Massively Me

10Vox

Oddcast

Green

Spineworld

MinyanLand

ClubCooee

1m

EGO

Visitoons

1.5mWeblin

24mWeeWorld Taatu

Muxlim

Rocketon

Age 5

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

Yoggurt

Ourworld

Faketown

Closed/closing

Age 20

Age 25 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005

2005

2006

2007

2008

Age 15

2009

Age 13

Age 102005 2006 2007 2008 2009Dizzywood

Coke Studio

Virtual Worlds Registered Accounts Q4 2008


http://www.kzero.co.uk

http://www.kzero.co.uk

© Alcus International Ltd. 2009 Source: OECD, ITU, Wikipedia, Alcus analysis

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

115.4

9.8

83 USA

Canada

Americas

7.7

Brazil

MexicoArgentina

##: broadband subscribers (millions)

10

Chile3.41.5

Europe

23 Germany

U.K.17.6

France18.3

Italy11.6Spain9.4

Netherlands5.9PolandSwedenBelgium

SwitzerlandDenmarkPortugalAustriaFinlandNorwayIrelandGreece

109.4

23.6

Mill

ions

of s

ubsc

riber

s (n

on-m

obile

)

24%

28%

broadband per 100 people

29%

28%

19%20%36%

24%

31%

29%

27%

5%

29%

7%

0.6%

25%

23% 1.5%

BICV: substantial growth potential?

Broadband is big and growing in Asia

Asia

30.6 Japan

Taiwan

6.8

China

Korea

SingaporeHong Hong Vietnam

88

15

157.2

IndiaAustralia6.2

5.54.2 NZ



Mobile phone usage in Asia exceeds the rest of the world and is still growing

744

292 USA/CAN

mobiles (millions)

Americas

Brazil

ColumbiaArgentina

Source: OECD, ITU, Wikipedia, Alcus analysis

151

Venezuela

250

500

750

Mill

ions

of M

obile

s

75

4741

Mexico

27other Latin America90 Europe

107 Germany

U.K.76

France

89 Italy

58

5041

PortugalGreece

537

SpainPoland

Netherlands20151467 other Europe

130%

mobiles per 100 people

150%

124%

116%47%

29%

53%

60%

88%

78%

124%

70%

116%89%96%

82%

122%

86%

79%76%

86%

Asia

347 India

Thailand

110

China

Indonesia

Korea, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Taiwan, Australia, HK, Sri Lanka, Sg, NZ, ...

634

141

1,742

Pakistan

Japan

7988

70 VietnamPhilippines68

205

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750



Private and public sector organizations are using virtual worlds for serious business

•recruiting•training

•developer partner network management

•b2b marketing

•internal collaboration

•IT training

•Internal sales conferences

•collaboration

•surgeon training, operating theatre

•conferences

•design collaboration

•academic education•conferences

•consumer marketing

•cruise missile launch training

•recruiting•training

•health care seminars

•Recruiting•b2b marketing, conferences



Hong Kong: “Frenzoo”, youth fashion world, incubated by Cyberport/SERAP

• Teenage girl fashion consumers• Skype founders invested in 2007• Incubated/based in Hong Kong but

global reach

25 Million Users

10 Million Users

30 Million Users

Fashion3D Avatars

• 1st to market• Proven biz model• Unique technology

3D Fashion World



Singapore is aggressively investing in building 3D virtual world capabilities

• Singapore Issues Tender For Youth Olympics Aug 2010, Educational Virtual World

• Interactive, user generated content, games/activities• Extensible beyond games• Part of a larger investment fund

Source: Virtual World news, Singapore government RFP, March 2009



Obama used virtual worlds to encourage live (!) discussions of his Ghana speech• Broadcasted into Second Life and

Metaplace

• Avatars gather to watch and discuss

• Virtual panelists: musician and activist, D.N.A.,, Ambassador Kenton Keith, and African historian Professor Tim Burke.

• Embedded into Facebook, Twitter, digg, etc.

Source: Draxtor Despres, Rikomatik.com, July 2009


http://www.ashongventures.com/

http://www.ashongventures.com/

http://www.meridian.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=48/





Cigna has launched a virtual healthcare pilot, integrating web...• Custom brand experience

• Registration easy and simple

• Consistent branding, visual language, graphic design

• Circular, extensible design

• Emphasis on human interaction



... virtual seminar, social community, interactive learning, and games

Source: Cigna, vielife



IBM, Intel, Sony, Lenovo, Sun are using virtual worlds for sales & training

• IBM- $320,000 savings on $80k inv.- >200 participants• Sony Electronics- replaced 15 city tour- 50% savings• Lenovo - training 15-20% of sales force- from 25 to 40% conversion• Intel - $265,000 savings on 35k inv.- 150 participants

Source: Nortel, ThinkBalm, VentureBeat, January 2009, BM/Linden Lab case study, March 2009


POTENTIAL USE FOR PUBLIC

CONSULTATION



Today’s public consultation example: West Kowloon redevelopment

• Website, online “discussion” boards, “multi-media”• Low res pictures of small models• Discussion events in Hong Kong venues



Website and discussion forums: one way communication, some dialogue



“Multi-Media”: pictures of officials



Pictures: poorly representing the true future experience



Live discussions in Hong Kong venues



Future consultation including a virtual world

• Real-time dialogue between officials and citizens, “embedded” in relevant media

• Experience in midst of a much more realistic simulated environment

• Easily accessible: young people, handicapped

• Contest and competitions possible

• International reach


TECHNOLOGY AND IMPLEMENTATION



There are multiple technical platforms out there to support business virtual worlds

• “Second Life” by Linden Lab (Public, TeenGrid, “Nebraska”)• “Olive” by Forterra• Open Sim, open source• “Wonderland” by Sun, open source • “Lucid” by HK Polytechnic University• Protosphere• Qwaq• Game engine combinations, eg Unity• others



A virtual world experience should be integrated into wider “Web 2.0”(PC & mobile)

Virtual World


COSTS, BENEFITS, RISKS



Cost varies widely, but one can start small

• Cost components include -Design & implementation- Software licenses, hardware hosting-Web and other integration

• Easily extended and scaled, starting with prototypes and pilots and scaling up to full production systems



Risks are both real and perceived

• Monitor and censor transient, real-time verbal “content”/conversations

• Too much openness• Security



Business usage increases significantly, mostly for training, meetings, conferences

• Business users expect significant economic value in 2009 (based on previous success experience)

• Immersive meetings, internal and external, training

Source: ThinkBalm Immersive Internet Business Value Study, Q2 2009

~30%: US$50k to <1mio



Benefits stem from cost savings, broader marketing reach, and higher effectiveness

• Cost savings: reduced travel and time savings, no need for physical venues

• Better reach: “Generation Y”• Effectiveness: better results through virtual world

characteristics• Other benefits include- inclusiveness- health benefits, risk mitigation
