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The mobile and digital multi-channel landscape is changing so rapidly that I and my department create this review every 6 months. It contains recent and authoritative data from a variety of respected sources to help our clients plan and review their digital initiatives and how they fit into their board level digital and multi-channel strategy.
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M O B I L E L A N D S C A P E M O B I L E A N D D I G I T A L M U L T I - C H A N N E L
2 0 1 3 H 1
WHAT IS MOBILE & DIGITAL MULTI-CHANNEL ?
Channels
traditional + digital
face-to-face, telecall, mail, in-store
+ desktop, mobile, email, apps,
channel threading
Platforms
admin + fun + social
“the platforms that people use to trade with one another are far
richer than any single business could buiild” - Fjord trends 2013
connecting & sharing
CONNECTED CONSUMERS
Devices
desktop + mobile
full-screen smartphones
+ tablets, readers, laptops, desktops
TV boxes, gaming consoles, handhelds
multi-screening
SMS APP WEB FB TW INS YT MOBILE TABLET DESKTOP INSTORE
UNDERSTANDING THE RAPIDLY CHANGING
LANDSCAPE
Purpose: Assist clients to plan their strategic portfolio of digital investment initiatives.
How: Provide information on the mobile and digital multi-channel landscape to
assist decisions and investment trade-offs. Spot trends and tipping points.
Focus: Authoritative, accurate and recent information. UK based.
Insight. Our opinion on the trends.
In-scope: Identify key topics & trends.
Near-term tech trends.
Out-of-scope: Future-gazing trends.
Strategy review based on the trends,.. but we can help with that…
M O B I L E L A N D S C A P E R E C A P O F 2 0 1 2
DEVICE Smartphone penetration exceeded half the population for the first time at 51%.
OS Android breezed past Apple iOS and is heading towards 50% penetration.
TABLET Incredible growth, household penetration went from 2% to 11%.
.
RETAIL Mobile sales topped 15% of all e-commerce sales. Growth was 150% - 300%.
SOCIAL ‘instant sharing’ on mobile becomes largest digital growth activity
MOBILE DEVICES
What’s in people’s pockets?
Smartphone penetration powered ahead - now at nearly ⅔
Source: ComScore, MobiLens Dec 2011, Dec 2012;
• In UK and Spain, penetration has
continued to race ahead
• Penetration is now over 50% for
all these countries
• Average point change
is 12.5
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
56.5%
64.0% 65.8%
53.0% 52.6% 50.8%
53.8%
Dec-11
Dec-12
Source: ComScore MobiLens, Dec 2011, Dec 2012
OS UK 2012 OS UK 2011
Brands
36.6
47.7%
26.4
27.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
HP
Other Smartphone
Microsoft
Symbian
RIM
Apple
• iOS and Android now have 75% share
• Samsung is now the No.2 smartphone owned in the UK
• In 2011, the top 3 brands were: Apple, HTC and RIM
Operating Systems
UK smartphones: Android, led by Samsung, is overtaking iPhone
Apple 28%
Samsung 26% RIM
14%
HTC 14%
Nokia 8%
Sony 5%
Samsung devices are now leading global share
“Samsung has ended Nokia's 14-year reign, dethroning the Finnish company”
Source: ABI Research, Oct 2012;
Strategy Analytics; Mashable “Samsung Dethrones Nokia as Top Cellphone Brand in 2012, Beats Apple”, Dec 2012;
“The only other Android vendor to eek a profit in recent history is LG”
“Nokia’s pseudo-smartphone Asha line has sold better than expected in developing markets”
9
Smartphone penetration will continue, but can only now slow in the UK and lead markets
Increased usage will continue to deliver exponential growth in mobile and sales
as the ‘late majority’ consumers continue to use the power of their mobiles
Source: ComScore MobiLens, Oct 2012 (figures rounded)
10
TABLETS
And other devices…
Tablet adoption curve was steeper than analysts expected
Source: ITU, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Pew, US Census Bureau
Time to 10% penetration Time to maturity 40% penetration
? Tablet
• Tablets achieved 10% in 2011
• How long to will it take to reach 40%?
Tablet ownership doubled - from 9% to an amazing 19%
Source: Ofcom International Communications Market Report, Dec 2012, data Sep 2012, Oct 2011
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
UK Fra Ger Ita USA Esp Aus
19%
15%
10%
23%
20%
24% 24%
2011
2012
• Growth is now proving to
be more rapid in some
countries than others
• Spain and Australia lead
the way in rapid adoption
of tablets and readers
It’s no longer all about the iPad
Source: YouGov UK,“Tablet ownership and behaviour”, 28th-31rst December 2012
• One year ago, iPad share in the UK was estimated at about 75%
• Kindle Fire is now the top tablet reported for gifting
48.1%
263.0%
26.8%
402.5%
-27.7%
77.4%
4Q12/4Q11 Growth in Tablets – global data
Globally Apple leads, huge growth from Samsung and Asus
Source: International Data Corporation (IDC), January 2013
• Close to 53 million tablets
were sold worldwide in Q4
2012, a 75% increase YoY.
• From Q4 2011 to the same
period in 2012, Samsung
and Asus had the biggest
growth but Apple is still in
the lead.
• Tablets sold globally in Q4
– 22.9 million iPads
– 7.9 million Samsung
– 3.1 million Asus
Apple
Samsung
Amazon
Asus
Nook
Others
Tablets are predicted to sell 60% as many units as PCs by 2015
Source: Guardian, IDC and Gartner PC v Tablet forecast to 2015; European
Technographics, Consumer Technology Online Survey, Q4 2012, 1530 european adults
• Apple's iPad is forecast to still
have almost half the tablet
market by 2015
“Compared to Italy and Spain, where tablets are more likely to be used
outside the home, eMarketer believes tablet usage is more akin to PC usage
in the UK and Germany, where the devices are often used at home.”
1
6
The tablet is not confined to one room in the house, it is well shared and well liked
Tablets are used for email, gaming and levels of shopping are twice that of smartphone
Tablets can empower better conversion rate through touchable and swipe-able content
Multi-screening consumer behaviour - both sequential and simultaneous
17
CONSUMER
BEHAVIOUR Multi-screening
Source: This section contains US Data
1
8
• Consumers are reporting greater usage
of almost all digital communication tools
• The greatest increases are reported in – email
– social
– text
• There are one or two major variations by
country, notably ‘voice’ growth in
Germany and ‘IM’ growth in Spain
• Other data shows there are massive
variations in preferred channels by age
WhatsApp pushed a record-breaking 18 billion messages on December 31
st
Source: Ofcom International Communications Market Report, Dec 2012, data Sep 2012
We are all communicating more, in digital
1
9
Multi-screening is the new normal
• Consumers’ time is now spread between devices – simultaneous and sequential
• Google research found 90% of people move between devices to accomplish a goal
Source: Google, The new multi-screen world: understanding cross-platform consumer behaviour, USA, August 2012
Smartphones are the most frequent simultaneous usage device
Source: Google, The new multi-screen world: understanding cross-platform consumer behaviour, US, August 2012
Nielson TV and tablet, simultaneous use, selected countries including UK, April 2012
• 78% of UK TV viewers also simultaneously use a smartphone in a typical day
• 80% of UK tablet owners do the same (but as yet, fewer owners)
2
0
2
1
While watching TV, people browse the net and communicate
• Two thirds of the UK
population already browse
the net while watching TV
• Almost 40% are second
screening in relation to the
programme they’re watching
- browse
- chat
- share
- participate
o
o
o
o
o
o
d i g
i t
a
l
Source: Deloitte/GfK all respondents, UK nationally representative, Jun 2012
2
2
Our different devices have different role emphasis
Keep us productive
and informed
Keep us
connected Keep us
entertained
Source: Google, The new multi-screen world: understanding cross-platform consumer behaviour, USA, August 2012
One in five shop on their smartphone - barriers still exist
Source: Adobe, 2013 Digital Publishing Report: Retail Apps & Buying Habits, US data, January 2013
• Twice as many tablet owners reported shopping on their tablet versus mobile device
• The survey showed 67% of tablet and smart phone shoppers only use apps for their
favourite stores
2
4
Consumers often take a digital multi-channel path to purchase
Source: Google, The new multi-screen world: understanding cross-platform consumer behaviour, US, August 2012
• When shopping, sequential multiscreening and channel threading is commonplace
• 67% reported they start a shopping activity on one device and continue on another
• Mobile is the most common starting point for shopping activity
2
5
Sequential paths - more start on a smartphone than anywhere
Source: Google, The new multi-screen world: understanding cross-platform consumer behaviour, US, August 2012
• Based on the type of task at hand and the role of each device
• Consumers primarily rely on search, rather than links or URLs to switch device
2
6
Sequential paths are based on the task and role of device
Source: Google, The new multi-screen world: understanding cross-platform consumer behaviour, US, August 2012
• On tablet the most common starting point is for shopping and travel
• Consumers rely on search, rather than use links or URLs to switch device
2
7
Mobilise your paths-to-purchase and common consumer pathways
Deliver the best brand experience across ALL of the digital channels, platforms, devices
used in common consumer pathways – requires board-level support for innovation
Analysis of effective marketing spend demands improved channel attribution
28
m-COMMERCE
In a challenging economy
High Street slowdown as the fear of triple dip looms
Source: ONS Retail Sales statistical bulletin, Dec 2012
• The growth of 0.3% in December
2012 was the lowest YoY growth
in a December since 1998
However e-Commerce is still growing steadily
Source: ONS, Dec 2012
• In December 2012, eCommerce
was 10.6% of all retail sales
• UK eCommerce has grown
steadily at around 8-10% per
year
• IMRG/Capgemini forecast that it
will grow by 12% in 2013
• Many pure ecommerce e-tailers
are still growing rapidly
Spend per buyer is already highest in the UK
Source: eMarketer, Jan 2013
• Online customer spend in the UK
is the highest of any country
• Average B2C ecommerce sales
per person in the UK rose to
$3,585 per person or £2341
in 2012, up 8.5% against 2011
32
Mobile traffic and mobile sales grew massively
IMRG e-retail sales index
• Mobile sales in 2012 were up 304% • Conversion rate on mobile devices doubled from 1.3% Jan 2011 to 2.6% in Jan 2012
• 42% of consumers reported browsing the internet whilst watching TV over Christmas
from their tablet (19%) and smartphone (26%)
IBM Digital Analytics Benchmark
• Mobile sales in 2012 were up 200%+ • Mobile traffic Dec 2012 was 24.2% of online traffic
• Sales Dec 2012 was 20.3% of all online sales
• iPad traffic in November tripled year-on-year
Source: IMRG e-retail sales index 2012
IBM Digital Analytics, UK Online Retail Christmas Shopping Recap Report 2012
• iPad exceeded both Android and the iPhone generating online traffic to retail sites in the festive run-up
• Android and iPhone traffic grew YoY by 30.2% and 35.3%, respectively,
• iPad traffic tripled. 300% YoY.
• In November, the iPad accounted for 11% of all online traffic in the retail benchmarking study
Tablets generated more online traffic than smartphones at Christmas
Source: IBM, UK Online Retail Christmas Shopping Recap Report 2012; : IBM, Black Friday Report 2012;
34
Conversion rates vary – devices with different role emphasis
Source: Richrelevance, Mobile Shopping on Boxing Day 2012 (analysis of 322 million shopping sessions in UK-based retail sites)
• Desktops delivered the highest conversion
• Despite having a lower conversion rate,
iPhones produced a bigger AOV
• Apple devices deliver higher AOV than non-
Apple devices, however, their share of
mobile sales dropped
• According to the IMRG/CapGemini, mobile
conversion rate has doubled in a year from
1.3% in Jan 2012 to 2.6% in Jan 2013
Mobile and instore - 2 worlds connected
Source: comScore MobiLens UK, Oct 2012
IBM Institute for Business Value, 2012
GroupMNext Aug 2012
• Whist there is much concern from
some quarters about ‘showrooming’,
a global IBM study with 26,000
consumers found 80% of shoppers
made their purchases in-store.
• More worrying is that 35% of those
would contemplate buying the same
item online next time…
• A WPP study in the US found that if
the price difference in-store vs. online
was greater than
$5 or 2.5%, most
customers would
leave.
36
Don’t worry about arguments for defence, or channel- switched sales, focus on the opportunity
Incremental revenue in this context means simply this:
grow digital faster than competitors
37
SOCIAL
“Today there’s no argument, Facebook is a mobile company…
...it allows us to reach more people, and we’ll be able to make more
money for each minute people spend with us on their mobile devices.”
Mark Zuckerberg
Social media reach
• Potential reach via popular
platforms is high
• Facebook is the clear leader
• Penetration (and hours spent)
is starting to reduce for the
first time in established
territories - ‘Facebook fatigue’
53% 52%
45%
18% 18%
3%
23%
33%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
US
A
Turk
ey
UK
Fra
nce
Germ
any
Italy
Spain
Pola
nd
Ru
ssia
Ne
therla
nd
s
Ro
man
ia
Pen
etr
ati
on
%
Us
ers
in
millio
ns
Reach of selected Social networking tools in selected countries
Linked In
FB Pen
LI Pen
Tw Pen
Source: Social Bakers; Semiocast
Social stats - mobile versus online
• Facebook continues to dominate with
mobile users exceeding web in 2012
• Google+ shows the largest growth for
any Social platform (but users are
being created automatically)
• Twitter has the fastest growing mobile
user base worldwide
• Instagram (now owned by Facebook)
was mobile app based, but recently
released a desktop version
• Pinterest has a massive gender bias
with 80% of users female
• Other new tools emerge - Vine is the
latest social tool - easy to
watch short-form video
0
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
600,000,000
700,000,000
Facebook Google+ Twitter Instagram Pintrest
Web
Mobile
Global unique monthly users
Source: Global web index 20th Jan 2013
What do people do on mobile social - instant sharing
Pinterest drives more referral traffic than Google+, YouTube and LinkedIn COMBINED (but less than Facebook)
66% of mobile-first Twitter users tweet whilst watching TV
And they’re 63% more likely to click on links and follow more brands
than non mobile twitter users
Instagram: 40m photos a day, 8,500 likes and 1,000 comments per second
YouTube: 3 hours of video is uploaded per minute via mobile devices
Facebook Messenger 56.7m active mobile users – But that’s
way behind the several hundred million WhatsApp is estimated
to have
Source: Mashable June 2012; Tune in with Twitter Jan 2013; Instagram Jan 2013; YouTube Blog
Social discovery is about to get better
The way people search the web is changing and companies such as Facebook, Amazon
and Apple are positioning themselves from their own unique vantage point to try and steal a
march on Google.
Google Now is predictive, it ’anticipates your next move’ based on behavioural data,
direct consumer input, time of day, geo-location and environment.
Amazon handles more product-related searches than any other company, provides
high quality crowd-sourced results and even offers (manual) image based search.
Apple’s iPhone-based voice search Siri is improving with each software version.
Facebook’s social graph data is being released for public search (beta underway)
to help apply knowledge of what your friends like to your searches.
Facebook has started to leverage their reach on mobile
• Facebook revenues were up 40% in Q4 compared to the
previous year with mobile at $306m, double the previous
quarter
• On average, ‘page post ads’ in the feed had a 14%
higher ROI and generated a 45 times higher click-
through rate than standard marketplace ad’s
• Mobile ads had a 1.9% higher click rates and 46% lower
CPCs than those on the desktop version
Source: New York Times
43
Social is the new water cooler - it’s where people hangout and share stuff
Mobile is the device that acts as the glue between digital channels and the consumer
Social is the platform that can do the same
Ad spend is set to explode in this area - but a mobile-specific approach is required
as targeting capabilities and formats are evolving rapidly
44
- Exponential growth
- New formats on mobile
- Calls to action from TV, Outdoor, Print for ‘multi-screen’
MOBILE
ADVERTISING
£0.00
£1.00
£2.00
£3.00
£4.00
£5.00
£6.00
£7.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
£4.10 £4.78
£5.45 £6.00
£6.66
Digital advertising spend defies media budget cutbacks
Source: eMarketer, Nov 2012; Advertising Association/Warc, Expenditure Report, Jan 2013
UK Digital Ad Spending, 2010-2014
£ billions
• Whilst digital ad spend is still increasing, other channels have been reduced
• TV and Radio are predicted to be on the increase with budgets in 2013
• TV in particular is becoming increasingly digitally ‘connected’
• 2012 has seen brands explore Facebook calls to action in the end-frame
And mobile ad spending experienced exponential growth
Source: eMarketer projections against IAB UK/PwC data, Nov 2012; eMarketer, Dec 2012;
£0
£200
£400
£600
£800
£1,000
£1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
£83.00
£203.20
£447.00
£737.60
£1,143.30
UK Mobile Ad Spending, 2010-2014
£ millions
Ads on phones and tablets now account for
an estimated 8.2% of all UK digital ad
spending in 2012
Advertisers spent $36.35 per mobile
internet user in the UK in 2012, higher
than any other market worldwide
Mobile ad spend is growing in both Search and Display
Source: eMarketer, Nov 2012; July 2012
£0.00
£200.00
£400.00
£600.00
£800.00
£1,000.00
£1,200.00
£1,400.00
£1,600.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK Mobile Ad Spending, by Format, 2010-11 and projection to 2016
£ millions
Search Display
A survey with entreprise-level clients
found that the clickthrough rate was
highest on smartphones
48
Display: Where is the inventory?
• Top destinations for UK users are Social and Music, Video and Media; however the
UK seems to lag behind the rest of the world in games and electronics
• The art and science of targeting is different on mobile, as cookies are restriced
Source: The state of mobile advertising, Opera, Oct. 2012
Display: Best time to advertise to consumers
Source: Velti Media
• Time of day can be a crucial
element in ad targeting for
mobile
• Different device types reflect
different behavioural patterns
• Factors such as time of day
and day of week show
different spikes of activity
Ad responses by time of day
Mobile Search
• Google has a 95% share of the mobile search market and they pay Apple in the
region of $1bn a year to be the default search on iOS devices
• Google collects 57 percent of mobile ad revenue in the United States, while
Facebook, its nearest competitor, gets just 9 percent
• Google are no longer doing “mobile only” ads – by launching “Enhanced
Campaigns”, all campaigns must now target tablet/desktop only or all devices
(mobile + tablet/desktop)
• Other companies are vying with Google to provide more value, more
seamlessly or reduced friction on mobile devices:
– For example, it’s easier and faster to book a table using the OpenTable app
than it is to search for a restaurant on Google using a mobile browser, click
on the link and then make a reservation
– Even faster is asking Apple’s Siri to book a table for you
Source: http://www.google.co.uk/adwords/enhancedcampaigns
51
Calls to action from traditional media are changing…
o o
• Become a ‘fan’ to stay in touch • Buy in multiple digital channels • Enter online
52
User behaviour on mobile is different to online – it’s less contextual
Mobile ‘downtime’ and ‘free-time’ activities have higher CTR’s than task-oriented utility services
Test, test, test to find out the most successful creative, best channel and time of day
Consider popular second screening channels & platforms as calls to action
53
WHAT’S COMING?
Technologies and consumer conventions nearing tipping point in 2013
What to watch in 2013
Payment methods – ‘Contactless’ cards , NFC phones and mobile wallets;
Reduced friction payments and pre-filled details via payment & authentication
systems
Handsets – Samsung will continue to storm ahead.
Windows Phone is still slow for now, BB10 also slow
Tablets – Cheaper Android alternatives will boost volume
of sales to ‘early majority’ level of penetration
Source: Mashable June 2012; Tune in with Twitter Jan 2013; Instagram Jan 2013; YouTube Blog
Connected consumer experiences – as brands start
to drive earned and owned media harder, and
paid advertising becomes increasingly ‘connected’
Appscriptions – With over 13,000 health apps in the Apple app store,
medicine is a trend in mobile (Trendwatching)
What to watch in 2013
Multi-screening applications – with seamless transition between different
devices eg Amazon films and books; gaming and television
formats with increased multi-screening
Local TV – Will emerge across the UK, is expected to be on air by Q3 2013 on
Freeview channel 8 and channel 17 on Sky in almost 20 cities
Screen size – Rising on all devices, with other innovations to
come from watches to fold-out screens
The battle for the 3rd place – with Apple iOS and Samsung Google
jointly taking such huge share, the battle is on for 3rd place.
Several OS for mobile will be launched during 2013; e.g. Firefox
“Mobile moments” – Consumers will try to maximise absolutely every
moment through their mobiles, “urban lifestyles mean that no amount of
(micro) time will be too fleeting” (Trendwatching)
56
T H A N K S
For a confidential discussion about how Velti technologies can drive connected customer experiences...
visit Velti.com
Simon Green – Strategic Planning Director [email protected]
Matt Bowden – Strategic Planner
Ana Verissimo – Planner