TRENDS

2016THE INSIGHT POINT

This year’s 8 trendsT1. Extreme PolarityT2. Neo-celebritiesT3. New majoritiesT4. Flexible working patternsT5. Legally illegalT6. Post-humanT7. Single vs familyT8. Simple survival

TRENDS

2016THE INSIGHT POINT

Class of 2016.As is often the case, many of the trends that we identify for this coming year are a natural progression of those that had been identified in previous years. In 2015 we spoke of the bipolarity resulting from this new “cold war”, which is a suitable term to describe all the developments that have transpired throughout the year, including terrorism, nuclear agreements and the US Presidential candidacy campaigns. Likewise, we witnessed the power of citizens in demanding transparency and authenticity, which unfolded in the scandals that took place within some of the world’s most established companies and institutions.

In 2015 we came to understand what it means to live without intermediaries when we changed the way in which we watch television and started to look for content through other direct means like never before. We saw many examples of this world in which crossing the boundaries has become increasingly difficult. The subject of transgenderism and its eruption on the public agenda was perhaps one of the clearest examples. The popularity of online course platforms - which according to some sources grew by 50% in some countries such as India - has gone to show us just how eager people are in looking for training and “coaching” facilities.

However, perhaps what was most evident for all of us was the speed with which we have felt technology leap forward; advances in virtual reality or predictive algorithms have helped us understand how great we can be as human beings when we see the world from the screen of our cell phone.

In 2016 many of these same themes will continue to be prominent. I hope that this report will be of as much use for individuals as for the ad brands. And as its primary aim, I hope that it manages to bring together and make more digestible all the cultural factors that will shape our world during this coming year.

T1. Extreme polarityThe bipolarity in the world which is debated between extremes will continue to be very present over the course of this year. The US Presidential election campaign and its ideological extremes will extend across the world. We will see how many people - especially among the youth - will continue to shout out this word which troubles many and fills others with indignation: inequality.The interesting thing about the opposing ideologies in 2016 is that they will go to show how such polarity can be incredibly flexible. Concepts such as “terrorism”, “corruption” and “immigration”, for example, will be used in many countries as a form of drawing lines between “them” and “us”. We will see less and less use of the old, traditional and run-down concepts of left and right. New players (such as Trump and Putin) are showing that nothing is written in stone and the ideological axes of today are but made of plasticine.

However, while the axes may move and the leaders may change, this year will be one where we belong to either one side or the other. It will be very difficult for anybody to call themselves “independent” or define their position as being in the “center”. The issue of immigration and refugees - primarily in Europe and the USA - will take up a significant slot on the agenda. Those for and against will use every means of communication to persuade public opinion to adopt their positions, even offering their homes to accommodate them.

The whole notion of inequality will continue to bring about protests and campaigns of varying sizes. While people will go all out to gather funds in Indiegogo to save Greece, others will express their outrage at the disproportionate amount of power that many have and the limited access that other have. They will challenge businesses and their excesses. While for many corporations this might seem like a matter of little importance, reality will show them just how important it is, as this is a clear affront to the millennials.

Another issue that will raise many debates will be that of corruption - both on public and private levels. It will veto governments and will affect candidates. However, it will also be revealed within some large corporations with resulting high-profile purges, such as with FIFA, and will extend to other sports-related institutions - more so for being a year of the Olympic Games in Brazil, a country where corruption has been an ongoing issue on the public agenda.

And lastly, the decision of the United Kingdom to leave or remain within the European Union, border controls between countries, constitution-changing referendums and public reactions to terrorist attacks, will all strengthen the idea of needing to be on either one side or the other of ideological poles. It is a year in which people will need to takes sides even against their own will.

FOR BRANDS: In a polarized world perhaps the biggest mistake that any ad brand could make is not to take a side. This doesn’t mean that they ought to take sides in their countries against political and economic matters. It means that the ad brands should have an ideology, a point of view and be committed to it. The time of neutral impartiality of the ad brands is over. In response to a terrorist attack or the approval of gay marriage, people will be watching the ad brands to see what their views are. Ad brands without salt or pepper will be relegated to the corner of extreme irrelevance..

T2. Neo-celebritiesThis year just might be the year in which the concept of celebrity is redefined forever. In 2016 there will be more talk than ever about personal marketing. Individuals will be judged as brands in themselves. From the ratings we receive each time we stay at a place on Airbnb, to the actual influence our content of traditional communication means has on others. Perhaps it was the Youtubers who showed us that there other ways you can become a celebrity. Their only prop was an idea and the ability to create content that truly connected with an audience. In 2016 we will see more influencers on social networks becoming public stars who launch their own books or even create their own products. It is worth noting the likes of DBP (Digital Brand Products), a platform that enables bloggers to create and launch their own products by capitalizing on their power of influence.

Trendwatching uses the term SIP (Socially Important People), which shows us the impact that individuals’ social influence will have. There are numerous examples, such as: The platform Victorious, which allows the new YouTube stars to connect with their fans by creating their own app, or using one such as Fansino, an app for artists to manage their relationship with fans.

According to recent figures released by Google, there are about 18,000 Youtubers who have over 100,000 subscribers to their channels, a level that names them as real outstanding winners of content. We will see new series, programs and spaces on traditional media based on the talent of these new stars.

Personal “branding” will become a concept that is more and more democratic. As long as users are making the most of “sharing economy” platforms such as Uber and Airbnb, they will be creating a social and reputational capital that will carry an undeniable value. Brands will rate users, something which will replace the concept of “the customer is always right”, to the extent that customers will become brand names themselves. We will see examples like the sandwich and cafe chain Pret-a-manger in the United Kingdom, which offers its employees a budget from which they can reward customers that they consider to be friendly or behave in a more likeable manner.

On the other hand, more will also be expected from traditional celebrities than just the usual scandals and revelations about their personal and business affairs. There will be social pressure on the new “unicorns” to follow in the example of Zuckerberg in dedicating large portions of their fortunes to the social good.

FOR BRANDS: Will be talking more about local content. The main reason will be due to the increase of ad blocking systems, particularly so in cell phones. Brands will intensify their search for spaces where their products and services can appear in a neutral way. It could be that the new content celebrities may well become the most interesting means for performing these searches

T3. New majoritiesYear 2016 is the year of “the others”. The so-called “minorities” are the new majority. It is the year of the woman, of the sexually diverse, of the African American, of the elderly, of the disabled and of the immigrants. Nobody will want to be left out of the new majority groupings. Many will end up convincing themselves that the demographic variables are unable to reflect reality accurately. Indeed very soon the two most powerful individuals in the world may be women: Hillary Clinton (in the event that she be elected as the first female president of the USA) and Angela Merkel. Moreover, it could also be the first year in history that a woman gets to fill the role of Secretary-General of the United Nations. To this end, the promotional campaigns and movements are on the increase.

With regard to sexual diversity, LSN Global is talking about the neutrality of gender and predicts that we will see more in the way of retail spaces such as in the Selfridges chain that have one section in which there are no gender distinctions. This connects in a very direct way with the general sentiment of society. In a study published by YouGov in the United Kingdom, only half of the questionnaires of people aged between 18 and 24 years defined themselves as 100% heterosexual. The subject of transgender will continue to gain more relevant ground between the sea of letters LGBTI.

Now, if there is one group among those normally excluded that will show what they’re made of in 2016, it will be the elderly and their surprising popularity thanks to the initiatives that enable them to access tools of connectivity. One example is Teeniors, a start-up idea that aims to connect youth with adults in order to aid the latter in accessing technology.

Thanks to this connectivity, we will hear about Shirley Curry, a woman gamer of 80 years old with over 100,000 subscribers on YouTube, and Helen Ruth van Winkle with 1.7 million followers on Instagram at her 86 years of age. And so Iris Apfel - who in 2015 had one of the most popular documentaries of the year - will not be alone in proving that age has no correlation with leadership in the world of fashion, entertainment or technology.

We will also hear a lot of noise about the topic of African Americans. The African American Museum will be inaugurated at the National Mall in Washington, and they’re hoping that President Obama will be able to open it before leaving office. The debate will continue on racial injustices and abuse by authorities, as well as the restrictions in access to opportunities.

It would seem that there is a global movement towards searching for non-traditional profiles. For many it will be skills in art or design that are the most sought-after characteristics in candidates for positions of employment in areas traditionally related to engineering or economics. As a driving force in innovation, diversity will make companies have to strengthen their policies on equal opportunities. It is for all these reasons that being part of the traditional minorities will sooner mean being part of the new majority.

FOR BRANDS: Ad brands will need to understand that to view the life of consumers based on stages such as adolescence, university, marriage, parenthood, retirement, etc., is no longer relevant. Ad brands that understand there are no set pathways for living life and instead hand the power over to their customers so that they may draw out their paths in life their own way, will earn a space in their hearts and in their pockets.

T4. Flexible working patterns Working at the office in the morning, doing freelance in the afternoon and being an Uber driver in the evenings is the new 9 to 5. This does not necessarily mean that people will be working more hours. But most definitely they will work differently. Concepts such as permanent employment positions or job security will need to be reinvented in a world where each individual independently manages their own employment. Those who think that the biggest revolution of Uber is in urban transportation will see how wrong they were in 2016. Uber has shown that using the family car and investing a few hours in the week can make a significant difference to their overall income. Few may be aware that 60% of Uber drivers in the USA have an official job and 50% work less than 10 hours per week. This is the big revolution in flexible working patterns, which many are now calling the “gig economy“, taking the term used by the likes of musicians referring to one-off jobs.

The flexible working patterns will even affect the traditional companies. Employees of Uniqlo in Tokyo, for example, can now choose to work 40 hours over 4 days instead of 5 days. This allows people to have an extra day to study, to be with their family, or indeed to work as an Uber driver and thereby supplement their household income.

The “salary” will also be made up from projects that the new entrepreneurs will seek to finance through Kickstarter or some other “crowdsourcing” platform. Shoes such as Shiftwear will generate earnings for all those who want to sell their designs to users who can transform their “look” without having to buy additional pairs. And so it is that creative work - linked to the generation of intellectual property, and referred to as the Orange Economy by its authors - will be a development of increasing value, driving legislation for its promotion and protection especially for countries in Latin America.

The driving force behind the revolution in working patterns can be clearly attributed to the millennials, who are determined to dispose of the idea that they are workers without ethics. In 2016 many companies will finally understand that it is not a matter of compromising the interests of the company, but rather that they themselves are the company and it is that company to which they will be eternally loyal. The most important skill to have will be the ability to reinvent oneself, and what one does will be defined by the particular place and time of the moment: Here where I am right now, what can I offer of value (a delivery, a record, a transport), something that completely changes the rigid working patterns that we have always been accustomed to.

FOR BRANDS: The new way of working will also entail a deeper questioning of the reason for working, i.e. the purpose of earning and having the money. Last year we saw some protests that demonstrated the discontentment with the whole buying and accumulation of things. The manufacturers that understand this change in consumer patterns and manage to reinvent themselves as companies that offer services instead of just products will gain access to very interesting opportunities and business models.

T5. Legally IllegalSooner than later, the world is starting to put question marks on many of the matters that not so long ago were unquestionable truths of legality. The flagship in this subject area is that of drugs, but is beginning to extend to other fields. If something is done with conviction and with respect from others, why the hell should it be stigmatized as “illegal”?

The clearest example of this tendency is the one provided for us by marijuana, which in 2016 will consolidate its course of medicinal and recreational uses far from the world of criminality and illegality. We will start to see the first brands of cannabis that “come out of the closet” and begin to gain status and a reputation among its users as well as non-users. It will be an important topic of conversation with services such as Bund and Breakfast, a type of Airbnb service offering friendly places of accommodation with the consumption of marijuana.

The subject will begin to extend to other drugs which will go marching through the front door to establish their place - without any taboos - within the corporate world. Such is the case with very small quantities of LSD, which are increasingly being accepted at technology companies in Silicon Valley as a form of inspiration and to help employees keep up with the demanding pace of work.

The notion of legality is being redefined by criteria established by the individual. People will feel that their actions - provided that they do not involve any type of “injustice” unto to others - are “legal” regardless of what the law says. We will start to see this take place when individuals may choose to use services of shared economies even though they are not regulated or even if they are explicitly prohibited by law. We will see the proliferation of services such as Go-Jek in Indonesia making the unofficial or shadow economy “official” with services such as moto-taxi, cleaning and errand-running, among others.

What happened at the end of 2015 with the Chinese artist Ai Weiwei and the Lego company, goes to show that people are ready to impose their own law. When Lego refused to provide the pieces for an artwork that it considered be political in its content, hundreds of people from all over the world offered the building block to the artist so that he may complete it.

Finally, the act of reinventing the concept of legality will also be taken up by bitcoin and the cryptocurrencies, which will banish all association with any illegality, even being recognized now by various legislations, and will go on to inspire alternative forms of control and organization with the use of blockchain technology. The shift from central banks to multiple participants or nodes that share information will be mirrored in many other scenarios. We are entering a world based on cutting out the middleman, which little by little will also mean having to redefine the role of the state, and thereby the definition of what is permitted and what is illegal.

FOR BRANDS: This year we will see a growing interest in people wanting to exercise the role that has traditionally been filled by the state in dealing with corporations: to inspect, to denounce and “sanction” the brands that do not comply with the standards of care for suppliers, society and the environment. It is for this reason that the ad brands who hand over more power to citizens will be rewarded. Actions such as those followed by Everlane in leaving it up to the consumer as to how much they pay for the products, will continue to spark interest and admiration among the population.

T6. Post-humanThe contention between what’s human and what’s technology is finally at an end. Human beings are enhanced with technology, sometimes together with it, sometimes instead of it. From the aid of an app on our cell phone or with the supporting use of a robot, machines help us to feel that real life has no boundaries.In 2016 we will hear a great deal about robots and Virtual Personal Assistants (VPAs) - two themes that will help us understand to a large extent just how our interaction with the world will be. From the ability to guess what our probable destination is or to predict what application we will use at any given moment, the virtual personal assistants - such as Siri on the iPhone - will begin to manage our relationship with the world around us, aiming to work in our favor, for example: Taking advantage of a special offer, analyzing the product that is most suitable for us, or even responding to calls for us.

Technology - and virtual reality in particular - make us better human beings with applications such as NYTVR created by the New York Times, which demonstrates how when you have an immersive experience that merits publication in the news, this 360-degree filming technology renders a much better sense of the surroundings and the events being filmed. Another example is

Cerevrum, a Canadian company that offers virtual reality products designed to enable people to acquire improved memory, faster perception and enhanced “multi-tasking” skills. There will also be tools that enable adolescents to become better drivers, such as with the virtual reality experience launched by Toyota a year ago.

To empower human beings’ capabilities will begin from the first years of infancy. Cognitoys is a toy in development which uses IBM’s Watson artificial intelligence technology to interact with children, posing as a tutor who is able to resolve their questions, follow their conversation and teach them vocabulary or mathematics. It is interesting to note that it is no longer a screen, nor even an application for iPad; it is a small dinosaur, and all the interaction is carried out through voice. But technology can also do what we humans cannot do or prefer not to do. At the recent DARPA event, where prizes are awarded for robots that will change the future of the world, it was shown how a robot can do a much better job than any human could in the face of natural disasters.

If there is anything that characterizes our relationship with technology it will be the term “frictionless”, which is used to describe a life in which we will live in connected environments that allow us to “navigate” seamlessly between screens and objects with no barriers at all. We will hear about the famous start-up Magic Leap and its visual device that “superimposes” images onto the real world. Another interesting example is the technology found in “constructive creativity”, a process for designing changing rooms that translate body movements into design patterns. More and better applications will show us that the cell phone, the computer, the house, the car and the refrigerator are all located in one single cloud where they can talk with one another much more than we could ever imagine.

FOR BRANDS: Immersive experiences will become a difficult challenge for ad brands that continue to view their relationship with the consumer as one of fragmented stages (the product, the point of sale, the social networks, the transaction, etc.). At the start of 2015 a very inspiring example can be taken from the Japanese company Cup Noodles, which created a video to accompany the consumption of its product. The interaction - today with a video but tomorrow with elements of augmented reality - raises the question for ad brands about the ability to create integrated experiences that go can demonstrate a “frictionless” environment is already a real possibility.

T7. Single vs familyTo be alone or not to be alone? To go from one to the other is easy enough with the complicity of the world we now live in and with the technology available. The question concerning relationships and the family will be raised in 2016 with greater force than ever before. Beyond the boom of applications for searching for a partner seen over the past years, there is now the added desire to get the best of both worlds: the single life and the family life.Much has already been said about the relation between the new generations and living with a partner, with tendencies such as the millennials postponing marriage and being able to opt for new alternatives in leading a single life. And for all of those who have not yet managed to resolve this dilemma, there are new arrangements appearing such as residencies and dormitories, which far from being a phenomenon of university life, are starting to gain popularity in numerous cities across the world. Just as we had seen in the development of “co-working” places in previous years. The term used now is “co-living“ and accommodates all types of work patterns and lifestyles.

Some platforms such as Trendwatching talk of “Party of One”. Figures show that is the USA reservations at restaurants for one single person have increased by 62% in the last two years, according to Opentable. This upsurge in numbers of people eating alone as well as traveling alone has created an increase in many publications and websites for tourists. In Tokyo there is the Book and Bed website that offers accommodation where tourists can “sleep” alongside extensive bookshelves. The millennials appear to be interested in “solo travel“ as their way of exploring the world.

Up to this point it would seem that the world is inevitably heading towards one for single people. But as it happens we now discover that marriage is recovering its relevance in society. The book “The New I Do“, published just over a year ago and rated as one of the books of the year by Amazon, invites the skeptics, the realists and the rebels to come together and redefine marriage. Companies such as Unilever have made efforts in encouraging families to grow. A few years ago, this company of mass-consumption products launched the video “Why Bring a Child to this World“ with the aim of encouraging the fearful to reconsider the idea of having a child. And figures show that Google searches related to having a child have tripled over the last 5 years.

However, the choice of having children is not necessarily linked directly with the choice of living with a partner. In this world that celebrates the single life, there are applications and services such as SupportPay that help people to develop a “co-parenting” arrangement which facilitates the bringing up and maintenance of the children. As new family and co-parenting arrangements are appearing, as too are ways of adopting children supported by the law. And so, anybody who wants to be single or accompanied can be sure to find a mobile app that helps them attain it.

FOR BRANDS: If at one time consumers applauded initiatives from ad brands that were bold enough to show non-conventional families in their advertisements, nowadays they regard this as the norm and it is a big error for any ad brands that do not understand or do not recognize this, as they are showing that they are out of touch with reality. There are still markets in which ad brands can differentiate themselves by showing their recognition of these new families. Primarily in developing countries, ad brands have a great opportunity to show that their publicity reflects the diversity of real life and far from the usual stereotypes..

T8. Simple survivalThe complexity of algorithms and the accumulation of vast volumes of data reach a point where people become so overwhelmed and consequently look for what’s simple, basic and local. All the warnings about the impact of climate changes are starting to become much more than just far-off predictions, and are finally making many understand that the survival of the planet will force us to simplify out lifestyles. The world continues to point to three big enemies: Complicated things, processed things and complex things. We will see a struggle against everything that implies any falseness. From applications such as BeMe - which creates images and videos that cannot be touched up or have any filters applied to them, nor be reviewed before sending them - to the recent legislation in France that requires for public images of models that have been touched up with Photoshop to have this declared.

What is natural, however, is not opposed to technology. To the contrary, perhaps the most interesting thing about all this authenticity that we will see in 2016 is that the handcraft and rustic perspective is being left behind. Technology is helping us to find alternatives to chemicals, both in foods and in areas of health. The toothbrush designed by Kosho Ueshima uses nanotechnology to avoid the need to use the (increasingly) questionable toothpastes. We will use technology to diagnose what is going on inside our body without involving complex procedures, but rather will save us from making further visits to the doctor or from needing medical treatments for more advanced conditions.

We will also see preference for simple options in the area of nutrition and beauty. More people will be looking for meat substitutes because of the impact it has on their health and on the environment. Age-old foods such as the lúcuma, or eggfruit, will be used to supplement the super foods such as quinoa or amaranth. With regard to beauty, there are many brands such as the British Liha, which are breaking away from processed products and instead look for traditional Yoruba methods to produce their products.

We will hear about simple pleasures. To put your cell phone on flight mode or sleep like a baby are the new luxury comforts. We will see more and more people turning to simple ways of disconnecting such as coloring books. Some as a therapeutic aid such as the mandalas, others as a way of taking a break and getting away from all the technology.

The benefits to be found in going local will be another form of rewarding ourselves with simplicity. The relevance of global brands will be put to the test among communities. It’s worth mentioning the case of the community stores of Nike, whose mission is to build and empower the local communities in various cities across the USA through the means of sports activities. Tourists will look to discover the essence of each neighborhood. It is for this reason that city marketing strategies will also now focus on marketing of the particular city areas. We will see guidebooks for travelers who want to discover the flavors and essences of each local neighborhood - yet another proof of how the concepts of proximity, authenticity and simplicity are key to the kind of world we want to live in.

FOR BRANDS: Perhaps the biggest opportunity is in the simplification of processes that are currently lengthy and complicated. The question is: Can the relationship with your ad brand be so simple that it can all be put down to the touch of a button? The best examples of this are the “Dash Button” from Amazon, which now allows a purchase order to be made automatically for over 20 products without using any form of screen, and the famous idea of The Switch created by Netflix, which enables the television to be switched on, lights to be lowered and dinner to be ordered with the touch of a single button.

SourcesThe compilation of trends included here is the result of capture, filtering and evaluation of many direct and indirect sources. Among them worth mentioning:

www.iconoculture.com www.trendhunter.com www.thecoolhunter.net www.trendoriginal.com www.trendwatching.com www.buzzfeed.com www.lsnglobal.com www.sparksandhoney.comwww.economist.com www.forrester.comwww.springwise.com www.time.comwww.npr.orgwww.huffingtonpost.com www.psfk.comwww.emarketer.comwww.thefuturescompany.comwww.leonardo1452.comwww.coolhuntermx.comwww.trendcentral.com www.techspot.comwww.trendland.comwww.wired.comwww.digitaltrends.comwww.brandchannel.comwww.hbr.com TREN

DS

2016THE INSIGHT POINT

About the authorJuan IsazaVice President of Strategic Planning at DDB Latina, the DDB Worldwide division that includes Latin America, Spain and the US Hispanic market.He writes regularly for his blog www.juanisaza.com and is a lecturer in various academic and business in areas such as marketing, advertising, social networking and trends. He lives and works in Miami.

Reports from previous years are available on www.slideshare.net/juanisaza

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Design and graphic edition: Rafael Medina - Brandia (www.brandia.com.mx)

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TRENDS

2016THE INSIGHT POINT