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Miloš Milošević, Nordeus
Early Churn Prediction With Personalized Interventions
in Mobile Social Games
ABOUT ME
Data scientist at
Main focus:
• Data pipelines
• Machine learning
ABOUT
• Award winning gaming company
• Offices in London, Dublin and Belgrade
• Creators of
AGENDA
IDENTIFY- Predict early churners using machine learning
TARGET- Construct a personalized message for every churner
EARLY CHURN
• What is it?
• Why is its reduction important?
• Can we predict it and how?
When to engage the
prediction algorithm
WE TRIED 3 THINGS
FEATURES
• Best model -
Gradient Boosting Trees
• Model we use -
Logistic Regression
MODELS
• Optimize backend
• Target churners
• Stay prediction
And what do we do then?
Messages need to be
meaningful, otherwise...
TARGETING
TARGETING
What kind of notifications work well on what type of user?
How to find the perfect match?
Use the user’s first day activity to create meaningful
personalized notifications.
USER SEGMENTATION
EXAMPLES
OUR RESULTS – DAY 1 RETENTION
OUR RESULTS – DAY 3 RETENTION
OUR RESULTS – DAY 7 RETENTION
CONCLUSION
• Everyone can do early churn prediction
• Target with care
