Material World 2025

i-25 White Paper

© The i-25 Team, July 2011 Page 1/15

Material World 2025 Visions, Challenges and Opportunities for Cross-Boundary Innovators

i-25 White Paper


Table OF Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.....................................................................................3

SUPER EFFICIENCY ENABLES MATERIAL WORLD 2025.................................................... 3

OPPORTUNITIES TO RE-INVENT TRADITIONAL INDUSTRIES ............................................. 3

OPPORTUNITIES TO INVENT NEW INDUSTRIES................................................................. 3

2. BACKGROUND....................................................................................................4

THE INCEPTION OF THE i-25 TEAM................................................................................... 4

MATERIAL WORLD 2025 WORKSHOP .................................................................................. 4

THE ONGOING ACTIVITIES OF THE i-25 TEAM .................................................................. 5

3. SHARED VISION OF MATERIAL WORLD 2025...............................................6

CONSTRAINTS DRIVE INNOVATION ................................................................................... 6

SUPER EFFICIENCY COMES TRUE .................................................................................... 7

4. RE-INVENT TRADITIONAL INDUSTRIES.......................................................8

SUSTAINING INNOVATION TOWARDS SUPER EFFICIENCY.................................................. 8

A CASE IN POINT: CRADLE-TO-CRADLE PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY.................................. 8

5. INVENT NEW INDUSTRIES............................................................................ 10

DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION TOWARDS SUPER EFFICIENCY................................................ 10

A CASE IN POINT: LEARNING FROM MOTHER NATURE ................................................... 10

6. EXPANDING HORIZONS.................................................................................. 12

HORIZONS FOR INNOVATION IN MANY DIFFERENT SECTORS.......................................... 12

HORIZONS FOR INNOVATION IN BOTH MATURE AND EMERGING ECONOMIES................. 13

7. CONCLUSION ................................................................................................... 15

i-25 White Paper


1. Executive Summary

Super Efficiency Enables Material World 2025

Material World 2025 means “super efficiency comes true”. That is the shared vision of the i-25

team, a group of visionaries that represents a diverse cross-section of both industries and

academia.

There will be many constraints in the path towards 2025. As population explodes and the

global economy expands, expect shortages of skilled labor, energy, material, water, and food,

to name but a few.

It is the shared view of the i-25 team that the human society will find a way to flourish. Indeed,

history shows that constraints are the mother of innovation. The human appetite for a better

quality of life, combined with the increasing constraints, will galvanize people and organizations

towards “innovate and prosper” opportunities.

The i-25 team envisions two major paths towards a super-efficient Material World 2025, which

are likely to surface in many different sectors within the next 15 years.

Opportunities to Re-invent Traditional Industries

The first path will be geared towards sustaining innovations that help transform traditional

industries. There is still significant room for improvement in traditional industries to make them

more efficient and waste free. To achieve super efficiency in traditional industries, life-cycle

transparency of key resources is essential. This includes tracking energy footprints, material

footprints, water footprints etc. over the entire supply chain. Standards and tools that facilitate

cross-boundary collaboration will become the key to facilitate sustaining innovation in

traditional industries.

Opportunities to Invent New Industries

The second path will be driven by the so-called disruptive innovations that create new

industries, which either replace or build on traditional industries. While it is difficult to predict

where and when disruptive innovations happen, dramatic efficiency improvements in those

areas where traditional industries are heavily dependent on limited resources are good

segment candidates. Since Mother Nature still holds many mysteries to be unlocked, expect to

find a wealth of insights leading to disruptive innovations.

i-25 White Paper


2. Background

The Inception of the i-25 Team

In 2010, Yokogawa created a set of future scenarios that described possible value pattern

shifts that might have a profound impact on the process industry within the next 15 years.

Yokogawa tested these scenarios with select visionaries in the European process industry

community in late 2010 and early 2011.

Upon receiving their positive feedback to these scenarios, Yokogawa decided to invite more

visionaries into this open and pre-competitive dialog about what may happen to the process

industries. The joint interest of the team is to stimulate each other and to be ahead of the curve,

preparing for and preempting discontinuous changes that might usher in new opportunities for

innovation.

Material World 2025 Workshop

On July 4th and 5th, 2011, the extended visionary team met for two days to explore the Material

World scenario. This is a world where accelerated innovations in both products and processes

enable a sustainable society while creating new sources of wealth for the process industries.

Material World

A Whole New World

Let it Be & Lazy Days

High-value new materials dominate the world economy

Energy and ICT Services dominate the world economy

Oil & Gas still fuel the world economy while industries undergo a tremendous structural change

Strong Commitment for Green Earth

No Global Consensus

Tangible Products Retain their Value

Intangible Offerings acquire new Value

i-25 White Paper


The Ongoing Activities of the i-25 Team

We named the visionary team “i-25”, which is an acronym for “Innovation in 2025”. The i-25

team wishes to continue an open, pre-competitive, and cross-boundary dialog to stimulate

innovative thinking. Publishing this white paper is the first result from the meeting for sharing

with interested parties.

i-25 White Paper


3. Shared Vision of Material World 2025

Constraints Drive Innovation

For this vision to become a reality, a perfect storm of “constraints driving innovation” will have

to change the landscape of various industries.

From the mega trends, it is likely that we will face an explosive growth in population over the

next 15 years, which in turn will push up the global demands for energy, material, water, food,

and other necessities of the industrialized society. Meanwhile, under this scenario, global

awareness for sustainability will have reached sufficient levels forcing global consensus on

policies and regulations.

As a result, two often-conflicting yet complementary forces will be unleashed: the force of

disruptive innovations spearheaded by bold start-ups and the force of sustainable innovations

perfected by big incumbent companies. New innovative industries will emerge while traditional

industries will also re-invent themselves to capture the new values created in Material World

2025.

i-25 White Paper


Super Efficiency Comes True

Material World 2025 means, “super efficiency comes true”. It is a world that has successfully

overcome the multiple shortage constraints of energy, material, water etc. -- not by lowering our

quality of life, but by innovating our way out of the constraints.

It is a world where there is no waste in the industrial supply chain. “100% conversion to value”

has become the reality. Furthermore, the majority of the products used daily in our society are

built on the “cradle-to-cradle” concept, enabling close to 100% recycling. Measuring the energy

efficiency of these recycling materials and products requires the establishment of a new

reference index; ‘carbon footprint’ is one example.

This movement changes not only industry but also individuals and society. Every person

understands that they play a key role in the sustainable world, such as recycling waste material

or products in the home. In addition, society establishes the infrastructure for recycling and

cooperates closely with industry to complete the value chain of recycling in an economical way.

As we have learned from history, innovative technologies have opened the door to new worlds

and improved our quality of life: innovative technologies and ideas lead us to the Material

World.

100% Conversion To Value

100% Recycling

Sustainable Sources ofMaterial, Water, Energy

Transparent & Collaborative

Industry Supply Chain

Sustainable Lifestyles & Consumer Behavior

An Image of Super Efficiency

i-25 White Paper


4. Reinvent Traditional Industries

Sustaining Innovation Towards Super Efficiency

The i-25 team believes that the first place to look for innovative opportunities, to usher in super

efficiency, is traditional industries. Traditional industries, especially heavy process industries,

are very conservative in nature and are not the natural candidate for innovation. Shortages of

materials, energy, water, skilled workforce, etc. are already a very real and pressing issue in

traditional industries. The i-25 team views these constraints as a long-overdue wake-up call --

the biggest potential driver of innovation that can evolve traditional industries into the backbone

of a prosperous “Material World 2025”.

It is the shared view of the i-25 team that there is an opportunity for improvement in traditional

industries to make them more efficient and waste-free. The barrier for further improvement is

not necessarily technologies as there are already many technologies available that can help

transform traditional industries. What the i-25 team identified as major barriers to innovation in

traditional industries are, among others, risk-averse conservatism, standards and regulations

perpetuating “the way it has always been done here”, and lack of cross-boundary

collaborations. Conversely, if open innovation can become the norm in traditional industries, it

could start a chain reaction that may propel the most conservative sectors into the leaders of

sustaining innovation.

A Case in Point: Cradle-to-Cradle Production Efficiency

Since the conservatism of traditional industries is not a single company’s making, the i-25 team

focused on the challenge of cross-boundary collaboration. The recurrent theme here was the

Cradle-to-Cradle concept1 as promoted by Michael Braungart, a path towards zero-waste

supply chain. It means creating an overall supply chain that enables 100% conversion to value,

encompassing 100% recycling back to feedstock. For this Cradle-to-Cradle concept to become

a reality, it requires more than technologies alone.

First, it requires a pro-innovation business eco-system that promotes rapid diffusion of

innovations. The conservative sectors may be able to learn the best practices of "fast

innovation from the success of the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector. "2

The ICT sector, thanks to digitalization, has introduced a wide variety of new technologies.

Digital circuits replaced analog circuits and digital circuits further transformed into software.

1 Michael Braungart, “Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things”, 2002 2 Kouichi Ogawa, “Business Model Innovation for Standardization”, 2009

i-25 White Paper


Standards defined module interfaces and assured interoperability, enabling any given company

to quickly and easily harness the state-of-the-art innovations. The i-25 team believes that

pro-innovation standards will play a key role in replicating this open innovation model in the

more conservative sectors.

The second major requirement is the

transparency of the entire supply chain.

The traditional industries can benefit

from: 1) Efficiency metrics that are

consistent over the supply chain and

2) Lifecycle traceability tools that can

track such sustainability metrics as

energy footprint, material footprint,

water footprint, etc. over the life-cycle

of a given end product. To reiterate,

cross-boundary collaborations to put

consistent metrics and tools in place

will be the key. Furthermore, as the

amount of data needed to calculate and visualize these key metrics will be overwhelming,

advanced visualization, and modeling mechanisms will be a necessity. The ICT sector provides

an interesting concept called big data3. It is a concept to handle the wealth of data coming from

the so-called ubiquitous computing environment, where sensors are embedded everywhere in

our society. The big data concept aims at getting real value out of this huge repository of data

by automated algorisms that support and/or eliminate the need for human decision-making,

thereby reducing information overload.

The third major requirement is the supportive mindset in company management, policy makers,

and end consumers. The i-25 team firmly believes a worldwide commitment to continuous

investments in education and human capital is necessary to enable the reinvention and

revitalization of the traditional industries.

3 “Big data: the next frontier for innovation, competition, and productivity”, McKinsey Global Institute, May 2011, http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/big_data/index.asp

Visualization, Tracking &

Decision Support

Standards & Inter-Operability

Cradle-to-Cradle Production Efficiency

Pro-Innovation Business Eco-System

Transparency of the Entire Supply Chain

Supportive Mindset in Management, Policy

Makers and End Consumers

Education, Human Capital

i-25 White Paper


5. Invent New Industries

Disruptive Innovation towards Super Efficiency

While sustaining innovations in the traditional industries will go a long way for a prosperous

Material World 2025, the i-25 team sees exciting new opportunities for disruptive innovations at

the same time. Disruptive innovations often arise outside the traditional industries, creating

previously unknown categories that could either replace or complement the traditional

industries.

By their very nature, it is hard to “predict” disruptive innovations, but they would certainly be

most welcome in those segments where traditional industries are heavily dependent on limited

resources. If disruptive innovations allow us to harness the power of biochemical reactions, for

example, we could envision a “biochemical complex” that applies biochemical reactions to the

production of bulk material. For that reason, it may be possible to replace and/or supplement

synthetic chemical processing with less hazardous and more sustainable methods of

production.

A Case in Point: Learning from Mother Nature

One may not need to look too far to gain new insights that stimulate disruptive innovation.

Mother Nature provides us with many examples of super-efficiency in biochemical processes,

which could suggest two paths toward disruptive innovations. One path is finding novel ways to

utilize organic materials we see in abundance around us, while the other is learning from exotic

natural environment discoveries found in new frontiers such as deep sea and space.

Utilization of organic materials can have multiplying effects on sustainability. Organic materials

are lighter and more resilient. Discovery of new applications for organic materials will allow the

industry to replace heavier and difficult-to-handle materials with metals that are lighter, safer,

and easier to manage.

We see emergent/potential applications of organic materials in areas such as:

Light elastic, high-tension, fibers that allow safe and more fuel-efficient transportation

replacing steel and aluminum in automobiles, aircraft, and trains

Organic Electroluminescence (EL) devices that could replace LEDs, electric bulbs,

and fluorescent tubes for lighting

Fully organic batteries based on electron-rich organic membranes, replacing metals

such as Mn, Pb, or Ni-Cd in batteries. The combination of organic film battery and

i-25 White Paper


organic EL film could give birth to a wide variety of new household appliances

Learning from exotic natural environments will take time due to their prohibiting locations, but

once unlocked, their potential to stimulate new applications and industries could be enormous.

For example, we normally live in an ecosystem of moderate temperature and pressure with

solar energy and photosynthesis from chlorophyll. Ocean science in the 20th century

discovered an incredible deep-water hydrothermal vent, where biological communities exist at

very high temperatures and pressures in a nearly supercritical condition. The food chain, in

these areas, started from chemosynthetic bacteria living on sulfur compounds such as

hydrogen sulfide. A study of the biochemistry and DNA sequence of such microbes could

provide the possibility of innovative energy and food creation as well as the utilization of

deep-water materials such as rare metals and other valuable chemicals. Other environments

that are worth looking into include supercritical state of materials and microgravity in space.

For biochemical processes and organic materials to become an integral part of the industrial

supply chain, new measurement and analysis technologies need to be developed. Sensing

solutions must be ready for accurate in-vivo or in-situ measurement of biochemical processes.

Some of these new instruments must be able to operate under extreme conditions, helping to

unlock the mysteries of the exotic environment.

Accurate In-Vivo / In-Situ Measurement of Biochemical Processes

i-25 White Paper


6. Expanding Horizons

During the short time the i-25 team was together, they envisioned many different possible

scenarios across mature and emerging economies and across many different sectors of the

economy, but were only able to explore a limited number to any depth. Below is a summary of

other possibilities to expand the horizons and open up several more opportunities for 2025.

Horizons for Innovation in Many Different Sectors

The i-25 team envisioned many opportunities for both disruptive and sustaining innovations in

many sectors such as manufacturing, healthcare, agriculture, water supply, energy supply, and

transportation that go well beyond the process industries. Many of the challenges and wishes

identified during the workshop imply that similar sets of innovation will happen all over the

supply chain and infrastructure of our society.

Manufacturing Healthcare Food, Water & Agriculture

Transportation & Mobility

Energy & Material

Invent

New

Industries

Disruptive

Innovation

Towards

Super

Efficiency

-Biochemical production processes doing away with synthetic processes

-Cloud-based healthcare services & wearable devices doing away with intrusive health checks

-Accelerated photosynthesis doing away with chemical fertilizers

-Full-sensory communications doing away with physical travel

-Untapped energy & material sources such as hydrothermal vents

Re-invent

Traditional

Industries

Sustaining

Innovation

Towards

Super

Efficiency

-Cradle-to-cradle efficiency & transparency via introduction of cross-industry standards and tracking tools

-Faster scale-up and less time to market of new drugs via full usage of modeling technologies

-Sea farming as an alternative food source

-More efficient desalination

-Smart ground transportation more accessible and safer than cars

-Alternative hydrocarbon energy & material sources such as shale gas

Manufacturing Healthcare Food, Water & Agriculture

Transportation & Mobility

Energy & Material

Invent

New

Industries

Disruptive

Innovation

Towards

Super

Efficiency

-Biochemical production processes doing away with synthetic processes

-Cloud-based healthcare services & wearable devices doing away with intrusive health checks

-Accelerated photosynthesis doing away with chemical fertilizers

-Full-sensory communications doing away with physical travel

-Untapped energy & material sources such as hydrothermal vents

Re-invent

Traditional

Industries

Sustaining

Innovation

Towards

Super

Efficiency

-Cradle-to-cradle efficiency & transparency via introduction of cross-industry standards and tracking tools

-Faster scale-up and less time to market of new drugs via full usage of modeling technologies

-Sea farming as an alternative food source

-More efficient desalination

-Smart ground transportation more accessible and safer than cars

-Alternative hydrocarbon energy & material sources such as shale gas

The i-25 team postulated that full sensory communication with sensors located in processes,

transportation systems and even shopping malls communicating directly with you will enable

better remote operations, improved awareness and safety and reduced travel requirements.

The team admitted though that technology was not ready yet for this but could be emerging in

the 2025 timeframe. As the global population continues to expand and with added technology

improvements, the team sees the extraction of ever greater resources from the sea beyond

deep sea oil drilling. With the continuing depletion of fish and other seafood, the team views

i-25 White Paper


sea-farming as an important source of food in the future.

In 2025, most major cities could follow the lead of Singapore and London and virtually eliminate

the need for cars. It is possible by 2025 the USA will develop a nationwide transportation

system not built solely on air transportation. In any case, the i-25 team wants reliable,

affordable, and safe transportation by 2025. We see moves in that direction now with small

electric powered urban vehicles. As these become ubiquitous, we will see easy methods of

recharging them at charging sites while taking a coffee break and catching up on e-mail.

Life expectancy has improved significantly in the past quarter century and the i-25 team sees

the health and medical sector continuing that trend. New materials will help with the

development of less intrusive sensing devices and medical treatments. Wearable monitors –

maybe even as part of the wristwatch – will allow a daily check on our health via cloud based

applications linked to our doctor’s office and local hospital. Someday personal medicines will

address problems that have yet to occur.

Maybe the biggest issue in this energy hungry world – the team asked as a final question “How

do we exploit completely new energy sources such as space, hydrothermal vents and so on.

While this will not be an issue in the 2025 horizon, as hydrocarbon based energy will still be

available, new materials will not only allow us to obtain more oil from each well and to get

access to new sources such as shale gas, they will also allow us to harness energy sources

from previously unknown areas such as thermal vents in volcanoes. As space travel and

exploration also become a part of daily life and journeys to the moon and beyond become

routine, the team sees the ability to harness energy from space as something that will start to

grow.

Horizons for Innovation in both Mature and Emerging Economies

The i-25 team thinks that while the mature economies of the USA, Western Europe, and Japan

will remain stable and possibly even decline from a technology point of view, the booming

BRICS economies of Brazil , Russia, India and China will drive innovation to maintain their

growth in the use and re-use of key natural resources. In addition, the Next 11 economies

including Korea, Pakistan, and Vietnam will start to put additional demands on these limited

resources such as energy, water, and food. How will they get the energy they need such as

light, water, food, and mobility?

The i-25 team sees the ability to efficiently and cleanly generate, transmit, and store energy

and to supply safe and clean water to all as a key part of the BRICS and Next 11 economies

i-25 White Paper


future growth. The Material World will deliver new chemicals and biochemicals that allow these

resources to last longer, be re-used, or recycled. As water becomes the ‘new oil’ it will create

renewed interest in desalination technology, which allows desalination of seawater locally or in

people’s homes. Small local power generation systems, based on new very high efficiency jet

engine turbine technology, will allow people in remote areas to have light and power at

reasonable cost.

There are some common themes that run through these expanded horizons. Limitations to vital

resources such as water and energy will drive us to investigate re-use and recovery

technologies, as well as more sophisticated exploration techniques.

Several members of the i-25 team envision ‘humanity’ reappearing as employers and

managers start to treat human resources as ‘human’ again. Due to the shortage of skilled

people, rewarding and challenging jobs will become available again as companies strive to

keep their valuable people.

This also opens up another facet of 2025 – predictive healthcare using sensors that can predict

medical conditions before they happen and tailor pharmaceuticals to address individual needs.

According to the i-25 team there will be breakthrough improvements in existing technologies

through better risk management and more accurate simulation technologies. These,

breakthroughs will encourage a culture of innovation and re-invention supported by politicians

who have a good knowledge of science and engineering.

i-25 White Paper


7. Conclusion

It is the i-25 team’s shared conclusion that the key enabler of a prosperous “Material World

2025” is cross-boundary collaboration among visionary people and organizations.

Be it sustaining innovations that redefine traditional industries or disruptive innovations that

usher in new industries, no single company or organization can lay the necessary groundwork.

Pro-innovation people and organizations need to work together to help the industry embrace

new standards, new performance metrics, new mindsets, and new ecosystems that are

conducive to innovation.

The i-25 team desires to maintain and expand its open, pre-competitive, and cross-boundary

dialog for the future. Both face-to-face workshops and online networking allows the i-25 team to

keep identifying new challenges.

Since this is an open group of visionaries, new visionaries are welcome who are willing to

contribute to such a cross-boundary dialog. For more information about the i-25 team, please

contact Dr. Maurice Wilkins at [email protected]