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This present moment Used to be The unimaginable future Stewart Brand The Clock of the Long Now

Introduction to Scenario Planning

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A workshop presentation on how to do scenario planning.

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Page 1: Introduction to Scenario Planning

This present moment

Used to be

The unimaginable future

Stewart Brand

The Clock of the Long Now

Page 2: Introduction to Scenario Planning

An Introduction to Scenario Planning

Foresight Methodologies Workshop

28 September 2003

Maree Conway

Page 3: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Who am I?– 25+ years as a manager in tertiary education institutions.– Internal re-structure at Swinburne in 1999 – appointed to

position of Director, Foresight, Planning and Review.– Foresight journey for both me and Swinburne.– Now strong interest in developing ways to embed foresight into

universities in particular, and organisations in general.– Practitioner focus – how to ensure outcomes of foresight are

relevant to staff, and can be used by them.

Welcome!

Page 4: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Suspend disbelief for a moment….• Imagine that you part of the senior executive

group at your institution – you are meeting to consider the future viability of your institution which has been affected negatively by the Nelson Reforms.

• In walks Universitas, the renowned and proven clairvoyant. She says:– You can ask me three questions about your future.

• What would those three questions be?

Before we start…

Page 5: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Overview• What is Foresight?• The Scenario Planning Process• Implementing Scenario Planning in

Organisations• Close

Welcome!

Page 6: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• An introduction to scenario planning within the broad context of foresight.

• Scenario planning is a foresight methodology – it helps make sense of an uncertain future.

• The focus is on making better decisions.• Additional references so you can explore the

methodology after the workshop.

Overview

Page 7: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• The world is more complex than that envisaged when many of our institutions were created, and those institutions are now creaking, facing significant new challenges and pressures.

• It is tough to be a manager in a time of such uncertainty.

• Decisions taken today will have effects years into the future, but in what sort of world?

• Never mind the future, it is increasingly difficult to discern trends and realities, and to make well-informed decisions today!

So, why do it?

Page 8: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• The future is not pre-determined or predicable.• If it were, there would be no point in taking

action today, because it would have no effect on the future.

• Full information about the future is never available.

• It makes sense to look for ways to understand the future to deal with uncertainty.

So why do it?

Page 9: Introduction to Scenario Planning

What is Foresight?What is Foresight?

Page 10: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• All our knowledge is about the past, but all our decisions are about the future.

• We create our future by what we do or don’t do today; it makes sense to try and understand as best we can what that future might be like before we act.

• Foresight is not prediction! It is about getting an idea about what plausible futures might look like.

• We are good at learning from the past; we need to learn from the future as well – we need to develop a ‘history of the future’ as we do a ‘history of the past’.

What is Foresight?

Page 11: Introduction to Scenario Planning

Why think about the future?

What we don’t know we don’t know What we

know we don’t know

What we know

Most of what we need to know to make good decisions today is outside our comprehension: we

don’t even know it’s there.

All our knowledge is about the past, but all our decisions are about the future.

Page 12: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Possible - “might” happen (future knowledge)

• Plausible – “could” happen (current knowledge)

• Probable - “likely to” happen (current trends)

• Preferable - “want to” happen (value judgements)

Types of Futures

Page 13: Introduction to Scenario Planning

Types of Futures

Time

Today

Possible

Plausible

Probable

Preferable

Scenario

“Wildcard”

Page 14: Introduction to Scenario Planning

Types of Futures

Time

Today

Plausible

Probable

(Trends)

(Deep Drivers)

Page 15: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• So, foresight, put simply, is an approach to thinking about the future which lets you:– free up your thinking beyond the here and now;– explore plausible futures (ie always more than one,

because “the” future is not pre-determined); and– think about implications for decision making today.

• Foresight is a way of thinking that enhances our understanding of our current – and plausible future – strategic operating environment(s).

What is Foresight?

Page 16: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• An attribute, competence or process that attempts to broaden the boundaries of perception by:– assessing the implications of present actions,

decisions etc.– detecting and avoiding problems before they occur

(early warning indicators)– considering the present implications of possible future

events (proactive strategy formulation)– envisioning aspects of desired futures (normative

scenarios)

What is Foresight?

Page 17: Introduction to Scenario Planning

Three inter-dependent but quite different elements:

• Strategic Thinking– exploration, intuitive, synthesising, creative, inductive,

disruptive, incomplete/ambiguous info; generating options

• Strategy Development– assessing options, examining choices, making decisions

and/or setting a destination or direction

• Strategic Planning– implementation, analytical, deductive, making it happen,

getting things done, pragmatic, “can do”; actions

Foresight, Strategy & Planning

Page 18: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Foresight is a strategic thinking process, not a strategic planning process.

• It’s about options not actions.• Asks the question: “what might we need to

do?” • not the questions: “what will we do?” or

“how will we do it?”

Foresight, Strategy & Planning

Page 19: Introduction to Scenario Planning

Inputs

Strategy

OutputsF

oresight

Expanded Perceptionsof Strategic Options

Strategy DevelopmentStrategic Planning

“Foresight Work”

Strategic Intelligence Scanning

Copyright © 2000 Joseph Voros

Page 20: Introduction to Scenario Planning

Inputs

Strategy

Outputs

Analysis

Interpretation

“what might we need to do?”

“what will we do?”“how will we do it?”

“what’s really happening?”

“what seems to be happening?”

things happening

Foresight

“what might happen?” Prospection

Copyright © 2000 Joseph Voros

Page 21: Introduction to Scenario Planning

Inputs

Strategy

Outputs

Analysis

Interpretation

Prospection

Foresight

Expanded Perceptionsof Strategic Options

Strategy DevelopmentStrategic Planning

Scenarios

“Deep” Drivers of Change(System Structure / Dynamics)

Trends, Issues, Themes

Strategic Intelligence Scanning,Near-Future Context

Foresight Process at Swinburne

Copyright © 2000 Joseph Voros

Page 22: Introduction to Scenario Planning

The Future as a Strategic Landscape

The ‘self’ journeys across the chessboard to the mountain, which lies in the medium term future

The strategic objective: • A compelling, relevant future• BHAG—“Big Hairy Audacious Goal” • A concrete, specific goal • A challenge, but achievable

The strategic environment: • Strategic implementation and tactics• Threats and opportunities• Actions of other strategic actors• Driving forces• Mapped and understood using scenarios

The purpose of the organization• A “future-focused role image” • Not completed or “used up”

Strategic identity:• Current reality• Self-knowledge• Strengths and weaknesses• Values• Preferences and experience

‘The Chessboard’— Issues and challenges we are likely to face

‘The Star’—Our enduring and guiding social role

‘The Mountain’—What we hope to achieve

‘The Self’—Our values and attributes as a strategic player

“Star, mountain, chessboard, self” image © 1999 Synthesys Strategic Consulting Ltd

Page 23: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Foresight is a normal capacity of the human mind.• Everyone thinks about the future every day, and plans

ways to deal with the uncertainty inherent in that future.– BUT, that thinking is usually unconscious, and usually stays within

the brain of each person.

• The challenge is to take it from being an implicit, unconscious process taking place in a single mind to being an explicit conscious process taking place in many minds– In other words, from implicit & unconscious to explicit &

conscious and from individual to collective.

• In organisations, this requires explicit foresight processes be created to support existing strategic processes.

Foresight in Organisations

Page 24: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Five levels to implement foresight:– Level 1: recognition of foresight as an innate human

capacity – every individual has the capacity for foresight– Level 2: immersion in foresight concepts – using

foresight concepts and ideas to generate a futures discourse

– Level 3: using foresight methodologies – use of key methods to make foresight “real”

– Level 4: creating organisational niches – permanent, purpose-built areas to focus foresight

– Level 5: foresight at the social level – where long-term thinking becomes the norm.

Richard Slaughter

Implementing Foresight

Page 25: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Choose an appropriate method or two from each level.• Refine the “flow” of information leading from Inputs to

Strategy.• Aim for a deep foresight process.• Always Ask: Are our proposed strategic actions

‘wise’ when considered from a ‘future’ perspective?

• The Goal: to act with wisdom in the present — informed by a perspective from the future, not only the past.

Practical Strategic Foresight

Page 26: Introduction to Scenario Planning

Scenario PlanningScenario Planning

Page 27: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Scenarios are possible views of the world, described in narrative form (stories) that provide a context in which managers can make decisions.

• By seeing a range of possible worlds, decisions will be better informed, and a strategy based on this knowledge and insight will be more likely to succeed.

• Scenarios do not predict the future, but they do illuminate the drivers of change: understanding them can only help managers to take greater control of their situation.

Gill RinglandScenarios in Business, 2002

What are Scenarios?

Page 28: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• One of many foresight methodologies.• Well developed and tested across government,

business and education.• Provides structured process for people to start

‘consciously’ thinking about the longer-term future and possible implications for strategy today (ie navigating the ‘chessboard’).

• A creative and shared process that allows time for reflection about the organisation and its future.

Why Scenarios? (The ‘Chessboard’)

Page 29: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Scenarios strengthen a manager’s strategic management tool box:– traditional methods focus on the past– scenario planning focuses on the future

• Combining both the past and the future makes thinking about strategy stronger and promotes:– responsiveness– flexibility– competitive advantage

Why Scenarios?

Page 30: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Scenarios allow a shared view of the future to be developed, and then

• Provide the opportunity for an organisation to consider how it wants to position itself in that future.

Why Scenarios?

Page 31: Introduction to Scenario Planning

Distance into “the future”

Uncertainty

Predictability

F S H

Forecasting Scenario Planning “Hoping”

Why Scenarios? (Ranges of Usefulness)

t

U

Adapted from K. van der Heijden

Page 32: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Imagine you are back in your senior executive group meeting. Universitas, the clairvoyant, has left, promising to return soon with a detailed report on her findings.

• As a group, you are now considering what you think will be the most important, but uncertain, external forces (drivers of change) that will affect your institution over the next 10 years.

• What are the top 3 drivers of external change on your list?

Your turn…

Page 33: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Identify the focal question• Environmental scanning – internal and external• Selecting drivers of change and ranking• Building the scenario matrix• Developing the scenarios• Presenting the scenarios• Considering the strategic implications

The Scenario Planning Process

Page 34: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Identify the focal question• Environmental scanning – internal and external• Selecting drivers of change and ranking• Building the scenario matrix• Developing the scenarios• Presenting the scenarios• Considering the strategic implications

The Scenario Planning Process

Page 35: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Identify a focal area or issue – such as a decision or question that is critical to the future of your unit now.

• Useful foci often emerge from major challenges of today, or from questions such as “what one question would you ask a real psychic?”

• Choose a “horizon year” as the distance into the future that the scenarios will extend (at least 10 years):– allows suspension of disbelief (the “that won’t happen”

reaction);– will you be in the same job you are in today in 10 years?

The Focal Question

Page 36: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Identify the focal question• Environmental scanning – internal and external• Selecting drivers of change and ranking• Building the scenario matrix• Developing the scenarios• Presenting the scenarios• Considering the strategic implications

The Scenario Planning Process

Page 37: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• “Inventions have long since reached their limit, and I see no hope for future development”: Roman engineer Sextus Julius Frontinus, 1st Century AD

• “Heavier than air flying machines are not possible”: Lord Kelvin, President of the Royal Society, 1895

• “I think there is a world market for maybe 5 computers”: Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943

• “Space flight is hokum”: Astronomer Royal, 1956

• “Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau”: Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1929

Things Change ...

Page 38: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• “We don’t like their sound, and guitar music is on the

way out”: Decca Recording Co. rejecting The Beatles, 1962. • “640K [of RAM] ought to be enough for anybody”: Bill

Gates, 1981 • “The fact that conflicts with other countries [producing

civilian casualties] have been conducted away from the U.S. homeland can be considered one of the more fortunate aspects of the American experience”: Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) for the US Dept of Defence, 2001

Things Change ...

Page 39: Introduction to Scenario Planning

Inputs

Strategy

Outputs

Analysis

Interpretation

“what might we need to do?”

“what will we do?”“how will we do it?”

“what’s really happening?”

“what seems to be happening?”

things happening

Foresight

Copyright © 2000 Joseph Voros

Page 40: Introduction to Scenario Planning

Interpretation

Foresight

“Deep” Drivers of Change(System Dynamics/Structure)

What’s Really Happening?

Copyright © 2000 Joseph Voros

Page 41: Introduction to Scenario Planning

Levels of Structure

Events

Patterns, Trends

System Structure

News Items

Recurring Themes

Underlying “Drivers”

“Core” Human Intelligences

Mental Models

Thinking Systems

Mindsets, Worldviews, Metaphors, Myths

Copyright © 2001 Joseph Voros

Page 42: Introduction to Scenario Planning

Levels of Structure

Events

Patterns, Trends

System Structure

News Items

Recurring Themes

Underlying “Drivers”

“Core” Human Intelligences

Mental Models

Thinking Systems

Mindsets, Worldviews, Metaphors, Myths

Copyright © 2001 Joseph Voros

Page 43: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• The Interpretation step means the Prospection step is better informed (in this case, the scenarios you will develop).

• So, look beneath the events, news items, themes and trends for the deep drivers of change.

What’s Really Happening?

Page 44: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Social• Technological• Economic• Environmental • Political

Major Drivers of Change

Page 45: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Globalisation– cheap travel & instant transfer of

information/communications, trans-national commerce, student diversity

• Economics– massification of education in OECD– percentage of population in post-compulsory education rising– rising funding costs to government

• Technology– internet, online instruction, e-commerce, cost and complexity

of science• The ‘knowledge project’ itself is changing

– from dualist objectivism to participatory worldviews

Major Drivers of Change

Page 46: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Identify the focal question• Environmental scanning – internal and external• Selecting drivers of change and ranking• Building the scenario matrix• Developing the scenarios• Presenting the scenarios• Considering the strategic implications

The Scenario Planning Process

Page 47: Introduction to Scenario Planning

Impact-Uncertainty Classification

Impact

UncertaintyLow Moderate High

Low

Mod

High

Page 48: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• “Low” means we are reasonably certain that it will play out or continue in ways that are fairly well understood– eg. population

• “High” means that we have no clear idea which of a number of plausible ways it might go– eg. government legislation and policy

• “Mod” means “somewhere in between”

What is “Uncertainty”?

Page 49: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Identify the focal question• Environmental scanning – internal and external• Selecting drivers of change and ranking• Building the scenario matrix• Developing the scenarios• Presenting the scenarios• Considering the strategic implications

The Scenario Planning Process

Page 50: Introduction to Scenario Planning

Impact-Uncertainty Classification

Impact

UncertaintyLow Moderate High

Low

Mod

High

Critical Scenario Drivers

Important Scenario Drivers

Critical Planning Issues

Important Planning Issues

Important Planning Issues

Important Scenario Drivers

Monitor & re-assessMonitor Monitor

Page 51: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• High Impact, Low Uncertainty = “predetermined elements (or trends)”– should be present in every scenario

• High Impact, High Uncertainty = “critical uncertainty” – choose the two most uncertain of these to create the

scenario matrix

• And the “blue drivers”?– include in your scenarios if you like, & if it makes sense

to, particularly if you think that they will be significant in the future.

Building the Scenario Matrix

Page 52: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Take your 3 key internal issues (the clairvoyant questions) and your 3 most important but uncertain drivers of external change.

• Plot them on your impact-uncertainty matrix.• Pick two from the upper right hand corner.

Your turn…

Page 53: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Choose two drivers that are most uncertain and most critical in terms of impact on your organisation.

Building the Scenario Matrix

Critical Uncertainty 1

Critical Uncertainty 2

Page 54: Introduction to Scenario Planning

World 2 World 1

World 3 World 4

Critical Uncertainty 1

Critical Uncertainty 2

Building the Scenario Matrix

Page 55: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Identify the focal question• Environmental scanning – internal and external• Selecting drivers of change and ranking• Building the scenario matrix• Developing the scenarios• Presenting the scenarios• Considering the strategic implications

The Scenario Planning Process

Page 56: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• In a scenario workshop, small groups would ‘flesh out’ each world. The requirements for this step are to suspend disbelief, trust your intuition, look for plausibility, surprises and novel elements.

• Scenarios must be internally consistent and plausible – they have to make sense to the people creating them, and to the people in the organisation who will read them.

Developing the Scenarios

Page 57: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Build your scenario matrix….

and• Consider what your worlds might look like….

Your turn…

Page 58: Introduction to Scenario Planning

Developing the ScenariosWhat is the world like in your scenario

in 2013?

• How did your world develop? Stand in 2013 and look back over the major events that have occurred; list the events. Developing the timeline in 5 year intervals saves time, but you can also simply prepare a list of the events you think created your world.

 Would your organisation exist in 2013?

• What do you look like? Are you physical or virtual? Global? Specialist? Major characteristics of your customers? What do staff do?

Title of Scenario• Be creative! Imagine a title that

describes the essence of your world, and that is memorable.

Narrative – the scenario story• Write up a paragraph or two to

describe your world (skip this if you are running out of time).

 Presentation• Decide how you will present your

scenario to the rest of the group. You’ll have about five minutes, so focus on the key elements of your world as they relate to tertiary institutions.

Page 59: Introduction to Scenario Planning

In a real-life project:• The first set of scenarios usually needs further

development and refinement.• Occurs over time, and is designed to make the

scenarios understandable to the organisation (to deal with the fact that most staff won’t be directly involved in their development).

Further Development

Page 60: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Identify the focal question• Environmental scanning – internal and external• Selecting drivers of change and ranking• Building the scenario matrix• Developing the scenarios• Considering the strategic implications

The Scenario Planning Process

Page 61: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• The Scenarios are not the only purpose of the exercise!– the resulting “freeing up” of thinking while creating

them is!

• Expanding understanding of what options might be available in the long term:– shifts frame of reference 10-20 years out.– examining implications for the services provided by

your unit in each of the scenario worlds– looking to see what your unit would need to do to

stay viable

From Scenarios to Strategy

Page 62: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Main Uses for Scenarios

– A common language for “strategic conversations” - ongoing future-oriented discussions

– Risk Assessment - specific decision

– Strategy Evaluation - existing strategy

– Strategy Development - new strategy

From Scenarios to Strategy

Page 63: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Scenarios provide ‘clues’ about what might be important drivers of change in the future, and how those drivers might interact and affect the organisation.

• Aim is to identify strategies that are robust across all scenarios, given what we know about how the future might develop.

• Also, to identify ‘early warning indicators’ that events in the scenarios are happening – how will we respond?

• Within the context of the focal question….

From Scenarios to Strategy

Page 64: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Robust - Perform well over the full range of scenarios considered - “Blue Chip”

• Flexible - Keep options open and / or wait for as long as possible before committing - “Hedging”

• Multiple Coverage - Pursue multiple strategies simultaneously until future becomes clear - “Scattergun”

• Gambling - Select one strategy which works very well, but in only one or two scenarios - “Bet the Farm”

Approaches to Strategy

Page 65: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• In the absence of well-developed set of scenarios, single-point forecasting and / or a reluctance to allow uncertainty (ie. the “predict and control” mentality) leads to a (usually unconscious) projection of an “official” future, which is the one assumed to be coming ...

• This approach is functionally equivalent to (and an unconscious form of) the Gambling / “Bet the Farm” approach

“Bet the Farm” is the common default

Page 66: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• The scenarios can help you to imagine the consequences of different choices of decision / strategy in each of the different scenario “worlds” …

• … without having to live with the consequences of a wrong decision or strategy for the rest of your life!

• Which of the types of decision / strategy do you want to develop in the real world?

From Scenarios to Decision / Strategy

Page 67: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Identify the focal question• Environmental scanning – internal and external• Selecting drivers of change and ranking• Building the scenario matrix• Developing the scenarios• Considering the strategic implications• AND, ONE MORE!!AND, ONE MORE!!

The Scenario Planning Process

Page 68: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• “Wild Cards” are low-probability, very-high-impact events that are– wide in scope and directly affect the human condition

– potentially disruptive (negatively and/or positively)

– intrinsically beyond the control of any single institution, group or individual

– rapidly moving

• eg: asteroid impact; stock market collapse; terrorist attack; disrupted water, gas or electricity supply; etc

Suddenly, the World Changes ...

Page 69: Introduction to Scenario Planning

Types of Futures

Time

Today

Possible

Plausible

Probable

Preferable

Scenario

“Wildcard”

Page 70: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• If you don’t think about Wild Cards before they happen, then all of the value in thinking about them is lost (“horse has bolted / stable door”). – If we accept that there will be Wild Cards in the near

future, then the only effective defence is to begin to systematically think about them now, and examine their implications.

Suddenly, the World Changes ...

Page 71: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Does your organisation’s existing strategy stand up to all of the future worlds presented in these scenarios?

• What rationale would you have for pursuing various strategic options in each scenario? What can you influence?

• What early indicators will we monitor?• After considering the strategic implications of the

scenarios, what actions might we recommend?• Deciding on an implementation plan.

Using Scenario Outputs

Page 72: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Given your scenario worlds, and your brief exploration about how those worlds might have developed over time,

• And, remembering your focal question,• What are the implications of your scenarios for

your institution today?– Would you still be in business? In what business?– Who are your customers and what do they want?– Where are the gaps in your knowledge? What do you

need to know more about?

Your turn

Page 73: Introduction to Scenario Planning

Implementing Scenario PlanningImplementing Scenario Planning

In OrganisationsIn Organisations

Page 74: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Implementing scenario planning is exciting for those who do it – it changes the way you think.

• Need open minds, tolerance for ambiguity and ‘fishing expeditions’.

• Commitment to understanding the future better.• Implementation has to take place within broad

foresight framework – scenario planning is a tool to help improve thinking about the future, not an end in itself.

Implementing Scenario Planning

Page 75: Introduction to Scenario Planning

Implementation

From To

Command and control Empowerment

Structured life Unstructured life

Importance of size Need for speed

Predictability Uncertainty

Clarity Ambiguity

Slow change Rapid change and obsolescence

Reliance on processes Reliance on people

Hierarchical or managed organisations Alliances and coalitions

Avoiding risk Managing risk

Organisations are changing …

Traditional strategic planning processes are no longer enough!

Page 76: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• When the power of the external environment is great –when the forces at work on an organisation require ‘outside-in’ thinking.

• When the organisation needs a shared context; shared vision; shared forward view.

• When functional teams need to collaborate – working together on scenarios may held current working relationships.

When to implement

Page 77: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Stage 1: Clarify your aims: why are you doing this?

• Stage 2: Engage stakeholders – very important – spend time on this until you have ‘buy-in’

• Stage 3: Understand the organisation• Stage 4: Timing of scenario projects• Stage 5: Developing scenarios• Stage 6: Communicating the scenarios• Stage 7: Using the scenarios in planning and

policy development

How to implement

Page 78: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Why are you doing this?– Introduce foresight into the organisation as strategic

management tool?– Inform strategic thinking and decision-making?– Test existing strategies?– A one-off strategic exercise?

Stage 1: Clarify your aims

Page 79: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Identify who will drive the process.• Who needs to be consulted internally and externally?• Take the time to engage these stakeholders so they are

familiar with the process, its aims and expected outcomes.

• Address concerns about value of scenarios and how they will be used in decision-making/planning.– Subjective tool, but allows discussion and challenges to

assumptions and judgements made during this process.

Stage 2: Engage Stakeholders

Page 80: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Is the organisation seeking input on future directions, or the development of a shared vision to underpin decisions?

• Can the outputs be used in a strategic planning round, or decision making?

• Is the organisation facing specific challenges?– Chaotic external environment – what are emerging patterns?– Critical decisions to be made, including choices between new

areas of activity – how to decide?– Business plans not being met – are the assumptions still valid?– Change in traditional markets threatens services?

Stage 3: Timing is everything

Page 81: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Can the project be resourced?• Who might oppose the project?• Who needs to be convinced of its value?• Who can you work with to apply the scenarios in

the organisation?• What will be the scope of the project, including

what time frame – what will work for the organisation?

• Who will be involved in the project?

Stage 4: Understand the Organisation

Page 82: Introduction to Scenario Planning

Stage 4: Understand the Organisation

Fence-Sitters RATS

- can smell the cheese, but jump ship; they have good organisational diagnostics

Pragmatists

Ideologues

Get ItDon’t Get It

Bridge Builders FROGS

- get it, and can use the system, very rare

Laggards VULTURES

- don’t bother, they are looking for you to fail

True Believers LEMMINGS

PITCH MESSAGE HERE

Adapted from Andy Hines, 2002

Page 83: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Look at other scenarios first– Get some idea of what’s involved– You may be able to use those scenarios as a starting

point to save time

• Process needs to be tailored for each project.• Spend time on familiarising participants with

future thinking.• The process itself can take one day, or six

months!• Decide whether to use external facilitators.

Stage 5: Developing Scenarios

Page 84: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Who is the target audience?• Who are decision makers and who are

influencers?• Who will benefit and who will lose under each

scenario? How can their needs be met?• What channel can be used to reach the target

audience?• What events are critical in the time sequence?• What are the success criteria – what do we stop?

Stage 6: Communicating the Scenarios

Page 85: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Scenarios are only valuable if they are used by the organisation – it is the use of the scenarios not their existence which is important.

• To use the scenarios you have to pay attention to dissemination tools and techniques.

• You need people willing to test the scenarios in a real life situation.

• Use the scenarios to identify emerging trends and discontinuities – early indicators of change.

• Use the scenarios to develop awareness of challenges facing the organisation.

Stage 7: Using the scenarios

Page 86: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Every organisation is different.• The process needs to be contextualised – use

existing scenarios with great care and recognise they will need to be adapted for the organisation.

• Take heed of organisational culture and processes.

• This will take time, and a lot of energy and persistence.

But, remember…

Page 87: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Believing what we want to believe and not paying attention• The tyranny of the present• Asking the right question: what will force us to think

differently?• Overestimating ability to control the future• The need to present a point of view• The unreliability of experts & the value of innocent eyes• Not taking the time needed to do a good analysis• Assumptions and the illusion of certainty

Gill Ringland,

Scenarios in Business, 2002

Watch out for…

Page 88: Introduction to Scenario Planning

CloseClose

Page 89: Introduction to Scenario Planning

• Thank you for your time, energy and insights!• We hope the process has been useful, eye-

opening and mind-expanding for you, and will be valuable for your future planning!

• Complete the evaluation and tell us what you think.

• Enjoy your strategic conversations!

Thank You!

Page 90: Introduction to Scenario Planning

We shall not cease from exploration And the end of all our exploring Will be to arrive where we started And know the place for the first time.

Little Gidding VFour Quartets

T.S. Eliot (1943)

Future and Present