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Innova&ngtheFutureTenMajorOpportunityAreasforInnova5on16November2016 Theworld’sleadingopenforesightprogram
FutureAgendaTheFutureAgendaistheworld’slargestopenforesightprogram.
Runasaglobaldialogueacrossallcon5nents,itaccessesmul5pleviewsofthenextdecadesowecanallbebeIerinformedandsofocusonands5mulateinnova5on.
TenInnova&onOpportuni&esOverthepastyearwehavesharedinsightsacrossmanycountriesandsectorsandhave
iden5fiedanddiscussedthebiggestinnova5onopportuni5esforthenextdecade.Herearethetop10basedonneedandpoten5alimpact.
Selec&onCriteriaWehavechosenthoseareasthatmeetthreecriteria:
beingglobal/mul5regionalinimpact,s5llrequiringsignificantprogressandhavingthepoten5altocreatenewvalue.
GlobalorMul&Regional
Impact
Poten&altoCreateNew
Value
S&llRequireSignificantProgress
ReducingAirPollu&onRisingairpollu5oninmanyci5esisalreadykillingpeople.Itwillbecome
avisiblecatalystforchangingmind-setsandpoliciesacrosshealth,energy,transporta5onandurbandesign.
ReducingAirPollu&onAirpollu5oncurrentlycauses5.5mprematuredeathseachyear.SuchisthescaleoftheproblemthattheOECDbelievesitwillbecomethebiggestcauseofpremature
death.Itisalreadyafocusfor5ghterregula5onandbehaviourchange.
AlreadyUnderway:• Regula5ontoreduceemissions
especiallyfromdieselvehicles.• Improvedmonitoringofairquality
andsharingofdataonkeymetrics.• Moreci5esmoreenforcinglow/
zeroemissionzones.• Policychangesonindustrialpollu5on
andenergyuseinChinaandIndia.• Educa5onprogrammesonair
pollu5onandrisktohealth.• Awarenessoflinkagetosmokingand
domes5ccookingfuelslikekerosene.
FutureInnova&onOpportuni&es:• Organisa5onsgloballywillcome
underincreasingpressuretoplaytheirpartinreducingairpollu5on.
• Integra5onofscrubbingtechnologieswithinven5la5onsystemsinbuildings/externalenvironments.
SomeEarlyExamples:NaturalAirPurifica5onExternalCleaningTowerMoreInforma&on:AirQuality(FutureAgenda)
ProvidingBasicSanita&onPoorsanita5oncon5nuestoimpactpublichealthandrestrictsocialprogress,
par5cularlyforwomen.Governmentsanddonororganisa5onspriori5semeasurement,educa5onandinnova5oninabidtodrivechange.
ProvidingBasicSanita&onFortypercentoftheworld’spopula5on,2.5bnpeople,s5llprac5ceopendefeca5onorlackadequatesanita5onfacili5es,andtheconsequences
canbedevasta5ngforhumanhealthaswellastheenvironment.
AlreadyUnderway:• Investmentininfrastructuretaking
placeacrossSEAsiaandAfrica• Shi]ingculturala^tudesinkey
regionstowardssanita5on• UN/WorldBanksupportforIndia’s
UniversalSanita5onIni5a5ves• Increasedglobalawarenessof
challengeas6thUNSDG• Overcomingtoiletaccessdeficiency
forgirlsinschools• Changingpoli5calcacheofsanita5on
policyinmul5plecountries
FutureInnova&onOpportuni&es:• Developingnon-seweredsanita5on
approachesandnewdeliverymodels• Developingtechnologiesthatleadto
radicalimprovementsinsanita5oninthedevelopingworld.
SomeEarlyExamples:SEISustainableSanita5onIni5a5veGatesFounda5on’sSanita5onprogramFecalsludgeby-productsatscaleMoreInforma&on:BasicSanita5on(FutureAgenda)
MinimisingFoodWaste30-50%ofourfoodiswastedeitherinthesupplychainorinconsump5onandcouldfeedanother3billion.Op5misingdistribu5onandstorageindevelopingcountriesandenablingbeIerconsumerinforma5oninotherscouldsolvethis.
MinimisingFoodWasteBy2050theworldwillneed60%morecalorieseverydaytofeed9bnpeople.
Withconstraintsonlandsupply,moreefficientproduc5oncanonlypartlymeetthisdemandandhencethegrowingfocusonmimimisingfoodwaste.
AlreadyUnderway:• Increasedrefrigera5onofsupply
chainsindevelopingcountries• FAOinvestmentinnewfoodstorage
infrastructuresystems• Improvedawarenessofsellby/use
beforedatesonsupermarketfoods• Smart,ac5veandintelligent
packagingandlabeling• Foodsharingandreuseprogrammes
ac5ngwithfoodsafetyguidelines• Anaerobicdiges5onrepurposing
foodasenergyandagriculturalproducts
FutureInnova&onOpportuni&es:• Cellularagriculturetoreproduce
healthyfoodinthelab• Safecircularfoodsupply/resupply
systemsandnetworksincludingshopsandrestaurants
SomeEarlyExamples:CellularAgricultureCopiaFoodRecoveryHierarchyMoreInforma&on:FoodWaste(FutureAgenda)
DeliveringAffordableHealthcareTheescala5ngcostofhealthcareisfurtherstressedbytheneedtosupporttheoldandthechronicallyill.Spending20%ofGDPonhealthcareisseenasunsustainablesoharddecisionsaretakenaroundbudgetsandpriori5es.
DeliveringAffordableHealthcareIntheWest80%ofhealthcarespendisassociatedwiththelast2yearsoflifebut70%oftheglobalpopula5oniswithoutaccesstodecenthealthcare.
Redesigninghealthcaresystemsforlowercostisthereforeacommonneed.
AlreadyUnderway:• Investmentinmorepreventa5ve
healthcarebusinessmodels• Bespokedrugsandpersonalised
medicinesbasedongenomics• Introduc5onofmicro-health
insuranceinkeyregions• Adop5onanddevelopmentof
pa5entco-paysystems• Genetherapyandgeneedi5ngto
avoidfuturediseasedevelopment• Developmentofrobo5ccarersand
beIerendoflifeprovision
FutureInnova&onOpportuni&es:• Newprotocolstokeeppa5entsout
ofhospitalsun5laslateaspossible.• Pa5ent-centricbusinessmodelsthat
deliverqualitycareatlowercostsSomeEarlyExamples:CarermarketplacesNarayanaHealthcareGrandAidesMoreInforma&on:CareintheCommunity(FutureAgenda)AffordableHealthcare(FutureAgenda)
Educa&onRevolu&onBroaderaccesstoimprovededuca5onactsasamajorcatalystfor
empowerment,sustainedeconomicgrowth,overcominginequalityandreducingconflict.Weneedaneduca5onsystemfitforthedigitalrevolu5on.
Educa&onRevolu&on Althoughtechnologycanhelpimproveeduca5onitisnotasilverbulletalone.Therealityforthenextdecadewillprobablybeahybridofface-to-faceandonline
learningwheredigitalconnec5vityenableadifferentapproachtoteaching.
AlreadyUnderway:• Wideradop5onofMOOCS(Massive
onlineopencourses)globally• Developingofcon5nuouslearning
plaiormsbeyondschoolyears.• Commonstandardsbeingagreed
acrossdifferentschools/systems.• Renewedindustryleadershipinco-
designingeduca5onformats• Significantprivatesectorinvestment
inneweduca5onalplaiorms• Inclusiveandqualityeduca5onforall
andlifelonglearningaUNSDG
FutureInnova&onOpportuni&es:• Decouplingdependencyonfully
trainedteachersandsoenablinghigherstudentra5os.
• Developingcrediblesystemsthatparentswillbewillingtoallowchildrentofollow.
SomeEarlyExamples:Teachersascoaches/mentorsKahnAcademyMoreInforma&on:Educa5onRevolu5on(FutureAgenda)
TrueValueofCleanWaterAswaterstressimpacts40%oftheworld,wewillhavetopaythetruevalueforthiskeyresource.Inamorewater-consciousworld,thecostofwaterisrecognised,fullwaterfootprintsaremeasuredandcompaniessignificantlyreduceconsump5on.
TrueValueofCleanWaterWhilethetotalvolumeofwaterontheplanetremainsconstant,increasing
demanddrivesthevalueofcleanwaterup.Alreadypricedat$15perlitreinsomeareas,moreinvestmentinpreserving/cleaningpotablewaterisapriorityformany.
AlreadyUnderway:• BeIermanagingwatersupply/
demandinareasofwaterstress• Usinglesswaterpercapitaand
reducingproducts’waterfootprints• Lowercostdesalina5oninvestment
inkeyloca5onslikeSingapore• Applica5onofdataanaly5csto
measure/createsmartwatergrids• Interna5onalcollabora5ononshared
watercatchmentprogrammes• Growingawarenessofwatersecurity
forci5esalongsidefoodandenergy
FutureInnova&onOpportuni&es:• Takingchemicalpollutants-
especiallyhydrocarbons-outofwaterusedbyindustry
• Lowenergydesalina5ontechnologiestoimproveaccessbeyondtherichestna5ons
SomeEarlyExamples:HyfluxTakaduMoreInforma&on:FullCost(FutureAgenda)
Suppor&ngWorkingLongerPeoplearehavingtoworkforlongertosupportlongerre5rements.
Flexibleworkingprac5cesandpoliciesareemerging,butsomeemployerscon5nuetoremainambivalentaboutolderworkers.
Suppor&ngWorkingLongerAsre5rementfor30yearsbasedonworkingfor40becomesimpossible,
moreorgnsai5onsandnetworksseektoretainexperiencedemployeeswithinthemixthroughmoreflexibleapproachestoworkandvaluecrea5on
AlreadyUnderway:• Shi]sinofficialre5rementagesfor
statepensionsinseveralcountries• Growthofgig-economyproviding
newplaiormsforolderworkers• Supportforthirdcareertrainingand
con5nuouslearningprogrammes• Wideruseofco-workingspacesand
hubsinmanyci5es• Businesscrea5onbyolderadults
increased60%from1996to2012• Subsidiesofupto75%foremploying
olderworkersinSweden
FutureInnova&onOpportuni&es:• Marketplacesforskilledknowledge
workersextendintowidereconomy• VCandbroadersocialinvestment
vehiclesforolderentrepreneursSomeEarlyExamples:BMWYourEncore.comAgewellGlobalMoreInforma&on:WorkingLonger(FutureAgenda)Organisa5on3.0(FutureAgenda)Agelessness(FutureAgenda)
BuildingDataMarketplacesDataisacurrency,ithasavalueandaprice,andthereforerequiresamarketplace.Anecosystemfortradingdataisemergingandanything
thatisinforma5onisrepresentedinanewdatamarketplace.
BuildingDataMarketplacesAsmanyseektocaptureasmuchdataaspossible,mostorganisa5onslack
ac5onablemethodstotapinto,mone5ze,andstrategicallyexploitthisnewvalue.Notonlyiscoredatavalueunclearbutaccessvs.ownershipisconfusingformany.
AlreadyUnderway:• Bilateraltradingofdatabetween
brandsandtechnologyplaiorms• Establishednormsforselling
aggregatedcustomerdata• Localiseddatamarketplaceswithin
specificindustriesandregions• Growthinreal-5meanaly5csandthe
enablingofwiderdynamicpricing• Plaiormstoexertcontrolonand
createvaluefromindividualiden5ty• Strengtheninginterna5onal
frameworksonpersonalprivacy
FutureInnova&onOpportuni&es:• Crea5ngtheprotocolsthatcan
underpincredibleglobalplaiorms• Trea5ngpersonaldataasaproduct
withinaprivacymarketplaceSomeEarlyExamples:DatacoupDigiMeMoreInforma&on:IncreasingValueofDataDataOwnership(FutureAgenda)Crea5nganIoTMarketplace(McKinsey)
Inves&nginNature’sCapitalIntheAnthropocene,humankindispresidingoverthe
Earth'ssixthmajorex5nc5on.Butasbiodiversitydeclines,naturebecomesincreasinglyvaluedandvaluable.
Inves&nginNature’sCapitalLeveragingprivatecapitalforconserva5ongrowsalongsidegovernment
investmentstohavegreaterimpact.Businessesstarttopaythetruecostoftheresourcestheyuseandsocompensatefortheirnega5veimpactonsociety.
AlreadyUnderway:• Corporateenvironmental,socialand
governancebecomingmorefocused• Triple-boIomlineaccoun5ng
frameworkalignedtocreatevalue• 3P(people,planet,profit)strong
footholdinTheNetherlands• IntegratedRepor5ng(IIRC)approach
beingadoptedbyleadingcompanies• NatureConservancygrowingin
influenceinUSandinterna5onally• Impactsofclimatechangeaccepted
andimplica5onsbeingwidelyshared
FutureInnova&onOpportuni&es:• Fundsfocusedonimpactinvestment
innature• Crea5onofplaiormsthataid
transparencyoncorporateac5vi5es.SomeEarlyExamples:NaturevestNetPosi5veProjectTrucostMoreInforma&on:Nature’sCapital(FutureAgenda)FullCost(FutureAgenda)ESG(Wikipedia)
GovernanceofMachinesAutoma5onspreadsbeyondtradingandmanagingsystemicrisk.Asweapproachtechnologysingularity,autonomousrobotsand
smarteralgorithmsmakeethicaljudgmentsthatimpactlifeordeath.
GovernanceofMachinesAsAIanddeeplearningbecomemoreembeddedintheworld,concernisgrowingaboutwhoisaccountableforthedecisionsmade.Astechnologyracesaheadwhosetstherulesisbecomingapriorityconcernformany.
AlreadyUnderway:• Widespreadembracingofthebig
datatrendacrossmanysectors• Notablear5ficialintelligencemoves
towardssingularity• Technologyfirmsinvestmentsin
machinelearning/deeplearning• AItakingoverkeymiddleclassjobs
suchaslawyersandaccountants• EricSchmidtbelievestheTuringtest
willbepassedin2018• AIexpertscalledforautonomous
dronedevelopmenttostop
FutureInnova&onOpportuni&es:• Societyneedstodevelopwaysof
dealingwiththeethicsofrobo5cs• Collabora5onbetweenengineers,
ethicists,lawyersandpolicymakersSomeEarlyExamples:Self-determiningmachinesNaoRobotMITMoralMachineMoreInforma&on:EthicalMachines(FutureAgenda)Threelawsofrobo5cs(Asimov)
SustainableDevelopmentGoalsSevenofthesealignstronglywiththeUNSustainableDevelopmentGoalsandhighlightareasthathavebeenrecognisedassignificantforsome5mebutwhicharealsogoingtobeevermoreimportanttoaddressinthefuture
JoinUsinMovingThingsForwardWearenowhelpingtochoreographseveralpartnershipstotakeaselec5onofthese
top10opportunityareasforward.Todothisweneedyourinputandsupport.Letusknowwhicharemostimportantandwhyandhowyoumaywanttohelp.
MoreInforma&onandInsights
www.futureagenda.org hIp://tmiltd.com/products/future-agendahIp://www.slideshare.net/futureagenda2
FutureAgendainNumbersThefirstFutureAgendaprogrammeengagedawiderangeofviewsin25countries.FutureAgenda2.0doubledtheface-to-faceinterac5on
andsignificantlyraisedonlinesharing,debateanddiscussion.
FutureAgenda1.01HOST16TOPICS25COUNTRIES50WORKSHOPS1500ORGANISATIONS
FutureAgenda2.050HOSTS24TOPICS35COUNTRIES120WORKSHOPS5000ORGANISATIONS
FutureAgenda2.0TopicsTherecentFutureAgendaprogramtookplaceduring2015
andaddressed24keytopicsvia120eventsin45ci5esin35countriesacross5con5nents–allconductedinpartnershipwith50corehosts.
Ci5es
Educa5on
Learning
Transport
Collabora5on
Energy
Loyalty
Travel
Company
Faith
Payments
Water
Connec5vity
Food
Privacy
Wealth
Currency
Government
Resources
Work
Ageing
Data
Health
Trade
FutureAgenda84BrookStreetLondonW1K5EH+442030088141futureagenda.org
Theworld’sleadingopenforesightprogram
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www.futureagenda.org