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Excerpt from Grey Food Trends Study "Holistic Food". Focussing on the effect of the recession on consumer behaviour, the food industry and grocery stores. February 2009.
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GREY Food Trends 2009
GREY Food Trends
Holistic Food
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Questions that we would like to discuss with you
• Does your brand capitalize on the potential of current trends?
• How do you handle the increasing demand for innovation?
• How do you handle the consequences from a change in target group segmentation?
• How can you deal with the increasing time limitation and mobility of the consumers?
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Outlook 2009 The "Credit Crunch Cuisine"
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Recession trends 2009
1. The food industry defies the crisis
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Grocery retail sales rise despite recession
Verdict Research UK Forecast 2009: Retail: -0.6% Retail Food: +3.3%
Asda Stores Ltd: 9 new stores, 7000 new jobs
Tesco 200 new stores, 10 000 new jobs
Sainsbury: 5000 New Jobs
Aldi: One new store per week
Source: twnetwork.de, Jan 2009
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Food and household products resist the recession
Premier Foods sales: +10% in the second half of 2008
Largest British food producer
Source: The Guardian 2008
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Recessions trends 2009
1. The food industry defies the crisis 2. Consumers cut on restaurant spendings
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The situation is getting serious
British pubs have lowest beer sales since the “Great Depression”
Beer sales in supermarkets and kiosks rise by 4%
Source: British Beer Barometer 2008
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Restaurants pay the price
Technomic foodservice consultancy Forecast USA:
Fullservice Restaurants: -6,0%
Quick Service Restaurants: +/- 0
Source: Penton Business Media 2009
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Recession trends 2009
1. The food industry defies the crisis 2. Going out becomes an opportunity for savings3. Consumers retreat to their homes
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Staying in is the new going out
Lovefilm DVD Rental has 40% more members since summer 2007
Source: The Observer, Jan 2009
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Success of premium ready meals as a restaurant substitution
Source: The Observer, Jan 2009, Technioom 2009
Waitrose "As good as going out", sales: +30% in 2008
Ready meals growth USA 2008: +6%
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Commuters are learning to prepare a lunchbox
Source: timesonline.co.uk, Sept 2008
Tupperware lunch box : +40% Sandwich bag sales: +34% Thermos flask sales : +100%
Sainsbury‘s sales numbers year to year Sept 2008
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Recession trends 2009
1. The food industry defies the crisis 2. Going out becomes an opportunity for savings3. Consumers retreat to their homes4. Consumers seek savings without compromising
on quality
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Two phases of the credit crunch down grade
„In past times it served as a restaurant substitute when consumers were under spending pressure, but increasingly the mainstream supermarkets compete effectively on premium ranges"
Sir Stuart RoseExecutive Chairman, Waitrose
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Spectacular success of Marks & Spencer "Dine for Two for 10 Pounds" promotional campaign
Copy of the campaign by Waitrose: Plus bottle of wine on top
Private premium labels under increasing price pressure
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Mainstream private labels were starting the price battle
"Feed Your Family For a Fiver” campaign by Sainsbury's discount chain.
Weekly planner sends online recipes with cheap meal suggestions.
Large sales increase after each recipe suggestion: e.g. +300% sausage sales
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Recession trends 2009
1. The food industry defies the crisis 2. Going out becomes an opportunity for savings3. Consumers Retreat to their Homes4. Consumer seek savings without compromising on quality5. The better world has to wait for better times
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Consumers replace premium fruit juices by premium private labels
Innocent Smoothies Sales: -20% between April 2008 and Sept 2008
Main competitor PJ Smoothies lost even more.
Source: Drink Business Review, Dez 2008
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„Deep greens“ stay loyal to organic, „Light Greens“ change sides
UK organic Nov 2008: +2% year to Year (Nov 2007 +16%)
U.S. organic Dec 2008: +5,8% year to year (Dec 2007 +27%)
German organic Dec 2008: +10% year to year (Dec 2007 +14%)
Source: BOLW, Nielsen in Reuters News Jan 2009
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Local production becomes more relevant than organic
Consumers who prefer locally produced food, almost doubled in the last year to 27%.
Consumer who are preferring organic decreases from 24% (Jan 2008) to 19% (Jan 2009)
IGD Shopper Trends 2009
Source: Igd.com, Jan 2009
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Recessions trends 2009
1. The food industry defies the crisis 2. Going out becomes an opportunity for savings3. Consumers retreat to their homes4. Consumer seek savings without compromising on quality5. The better world has to wait for better times6. In bad times consumers turn to nostalgic worlds
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Success Formula for 2009: comfort, nostalgia and humor
Grocery Magazine Top 14 Food Brands 2008
"Brands that offer comfort and nostalgia thrive in a tough climate as well as brands that have humour.“
Claire Nuttall, Grocery Magazine
Source: Grocery Magazine Top Brands 2008
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Revival of nostalgic 1980s food brands
.
In difficult times successful food brands embody the comfort of mother's kitchen table
Birds Eye Potato Waffles +67%Baked beans + 32%Fish fingers + 29%
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Longing for homeland and familiarity
.Source: Grocery Magazine Top Brands 2008
Walker crisps has been part of British snack culture for generations
2008-2009 sales growth by 9.5%
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British tradition offers orientation to UK consumers
Hovis Bread is positioned as part of British history
13% sales growth in 2008
Source: The Guardian 2008
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Recession trends 2009
1. The food industry defies the crisis 2. Going out becomes an opportunity for savings3. Consumers retreat to their homes4. Consumer seek savings without compromising on quality5. The better world has to wait for better times6. In bad times consumers escape in nostalgic retro worlds7. Consumers are looking for comfort in “good mood food”
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Rescession food has to balance moods and feelings
UK chocolate sales rise by 42% (Aug 2008 to Nov 2008)
Source: The Sun, Nov 2008
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The end of lifestyle advertising and comeback of sentimentality
“Open Happiness” replaces “Coke Side of Life”
Focus on basic product line in US.
Coke wants to offer a small time out from the sorrows of the recession.
Source: Associated Press Jan 2009
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How to navigate a food brand through the recession?
In a climate of crisis, food brands have to offer an immaterial value to a sentimental consumer who is longing for security, simplicity and comfort.
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Bon Appetit!
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BibliographyFOOD TREND STUDIES
An appetit of change – Food & Beverage 2012, Deloitte, 2207;http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/cda/doc/content/An%20appetite%20for%20chang.pdf
Branchenbild - Ernährungsgewohnheiten und –trends , Gruner + Jahr Marktanalyse, 2006;http://www.guj.de/
Consumers‘ Choice ’07 – Wellfood trend drives food markets, BVE in Kooperation mit der Gfk, 2007; http://www.bveonline.de/presseservice/veroeffentlichungen/consumers_choice2007/
Ernährungstrends , Axel Springer AG, 2005;http://www.mediapilot.de/images/20050531/Ernaehrungstrends_05.pdf
Food and beverage 2012, Deloitte, 2008;http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/cda/doc/content/Food%20and%20beverage%202012_web.pdf
Food Styles , Anja Kirig Mag. Hanni Rützler, Zukunfts Institut, 2007;http://www.zukunftsinstitut.de/verlag/studien_detail.php?nr=60
Food Trends 2000 , Grey, 1994
Food-Trends 2005 – Basisdaten für Kommunikationsstrategien , Hubert Burda, 2005;
Food Trends 2015: Mit „MehrWert in die Zukunft“ , BBE, 2008; http://www.bbe-retail-experts.com
Food Trends und Verbraucherverhalten vor dem Hintergrund gesellschaftlicher Entwicklung am Beispiel der Kartoffel, CMA, 2006; http://www.smul.sachsen.de/de/wu/Landwirtschaft/download/Sulzer_CMA_Nossen_2006.pdf
Food-Trends - Trends und Entwicklungen in den Bereichen Food und Ernährungsverhalten“ , GIM Argo, 2004;http://www.gimargo.de/index/modul/portal/kernwert/print_aktuelles_de/block/catalogue_1/show/0/search//cmd/catalogue_details/field/6
„Nationale Verzehrs Studie II“ , Bundesforschungsinstitut für Ernährung und Lebensmittel, 2008http://www.bmelv.de/DE/03-Ernaehrung/04-Forschung/NationaleVerzehrsstudie/NVS2__node.html
Produktvielfalt und –information - Entwicklungen und Trends im Lebensmittelangebot“, Gfk im Auftrag von BLL, 2008;http://www.bll.de/download/themen/naehrwertinformation.html/20080415_gfk_broschuere/
Trendstudie Food – Gesellschaftlicher Wandel und seine Wirkung auf den Foodbereich , ZMP in Kooperation mit CMA, 2006;http://www.zmp.de/shop/mafo_inland/trendstudie_Food_k671.asp
What’s Hot around the Globe: Insights on Growth in Food & Beverages , ACNielsen, 2004;http://www2.acnielsen.com/reports/documents/2004_whatshot_food-bev.pdf
HEALTH
Connecting the dots between food and health, The Coca-Cola Company, 2008;http://www.coke.net
The top ten – Functional Food Trends , A. Elizabeth Sloan, 2008;http://members.ift.org/NR/rdonlyres/504BC1ED-53DC-4A67-88A7-EC560ACF28BE/0/0406topten.pdf
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Organic Food
Biomilch bei McDonald’s & Co. , Julia Leendertse, Handelsblatt, 05.08.2007, Seite 5;http://www.engels-kerzen.de/Infos/handelsblatt-August07.pdf
Bio-Nahrungsmittel , Dialego AG, 2006http://www2.dialego.de/uploads/media/051027DD_Bio-Nahrungsmittel_02.pdf
Bio+pro , Zielgruppen für den Biolebensmittelmarkt, ISOE, 2003http://orgprints.org/4554/02/4554-02OE330-2003-biopro-praesentation.pdf
Zwischen Discount und Premium: Gerät Bio zwischen die Fronten? , Prof. Dr. Achim Spiller, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen , 2007;http://www.uni-goettingen.de/de/34022.html
CONVENIENCE/ CHILLED FOOD
Chilled Food im Außer-Haus-MarktErfolgsplattform für regionalen Handel und Verwender, CMA, 2005;
Convenience: Tante Emma kehrt zurück , akzente 02/07, McKinsey&Company, 2007;http://www.mckinsey.de/downloads/publikation/akzente/2007/akzente_0702_tanteemma.pdf
Globaler Trend , Nielsen Consumer Insighths, 2007;http://www2.acnielsen.com/insights/index.shtml
Communication
Heißgetränke – Bericht über Kommunikation in Internetforen, Burder Community Network;http://www.burda.de/hps/upload/hxmedia/hbmi/HBohqrXx.pdf
Innovation der Medien, IBM, 2008;http://www-05.ibm.com/de/pressroom/downloads/medienstudie-2008.pdf
Neue Marktsicht , ACNielsen Consumer Insights, 2007;http://de.nielsen.com/pubs/documents/ACNielsenConsumerInsightsAusgabe2_2007.pdf
The future of advertising is now, strategy+business issue 43, 2008;http://www.strategy-business.com/press/16635507/06204
Trust in Advertising , ACNielsen, 2007http://www2.acnielsen.com/reports/documents/TrustinAdvertisingOct07.pdf
Word of Mouth – Basic Training“, Womma, 2006;http://www.womma.org/wombat/presentations/womma_wombat_carson.pdf
Consumer
Changing Lifestyles – Changing Marketplace - The UK Experience, TNS, 2006;
Der gesellschaftliche Wandel generiert neue Zielgruppen , AWA, 2008;http://www.awa-online.de/main.php?selection=95&rubrik=0
Der Konsum muss endlich kommen , GfK Consumer Index, 2007;http://www.gfk.com/imperia/md/content/ps_de/consumerindex/ci_09-2007.pdf
Karma-Kapitalismus - Werte statt Preise , Trendbüro, 2007;http://www.trendbuero.de/index.php?f_tag=karma%20kapitalismus
Greendotcom , Zukunftsinstitut, 2008;http://www.zukunftsinstitut.de/verlag/medien_detail.php?nr=23
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Greenstyle report - Die Zielgruppe der LOHAS verstehen , Burda Research & Development, 2007;www.hbm-marcom.de/hps/upload/hxmedia/hbmi/HXMEDIA19831media_file.pdf
Karma-Kapitalismus - Werte statt Preise , Trendbüro, 2007;http://www.trendbuero.de/index.php?f_tag=karma%20kapitalismus
LOHAS - Lifestyle of Health and Sustainability , Ernst&Young, 2007; http://www.ey.com/Global/assets.nsf/Germany/Studie_RCP_LOHAS_2007/$file/Studie_RCP_LOHAS_2007.pdf
Megatrend Nachhaltigkeit - Marktpotenziale von LOHAS & Co. , Universität Hohenheim, 2008;https://umho.uni-hohenheim.de
Tracing the Future of Consumption - The Fragmentation of Societies and its Implications for Business Strategies , Deutsche Bank AG, 2007;http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000207933.pdf
Von der Ich-AG zur modernen „Über-Ich“-Gesellschaft - Chancen und Grenzen der neuen Werte- und Ethik-Trends“ , rheingold, 2008;www.bve-online.de/download/download/vortrag_loenneker/
POS
Der Shopper 2006 am POS , IRI, 2006;http://www.procarton.de/download/633fd5d8e9f5ec7720b1ad512614a143/iri-studie.pdf
Shopper Marketing: Capturing a Shopper’s Mind, Heart and Wallet , Deloitte, 2007;http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/cda/doc/content/us_cpg_ShopperMarketingStudy_2007opt.pdf
Universen - 2007 Handel und Verbraucher in Deutschland , Nielsen, 2007;http://de.nielsen.com/site/documents/Universen07.pdf
PRODUCT INNOVATIONEN
Die Milliarden-Chance der Marke. Erfahrungswerte erfolgreicher Innovationen, Serviceplan, 2006; http://wirkstoff.tv/fileadmin/user/daten/wirkungstag-pdf/Haller.pdf
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Contact
Alessandro PanellaHead of Strategic Planning
Grey Worldwide GmbHPlatz der Ideen 140476 Düsseldorf
T +49.211.3807-444M [email protected]
Sebastian BrunnerStrategic Planner
Grey Worldwide GmbHPlatz der Ideen 140476 Düsseldorf
T +49.211.3807-7614F [email protected]
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Copyright
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GREY Worldwide GmbH
Platz der Ideen 1 | D-40476 Düsseldorf | T +49 211 3807-0 | F +49 211 3807-367 | [email protected] | www.grey.de
