DCR Trendline January 2013 – Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report

““ “As we begin the New Year, our concentra� on this month lies upon closing up 2012 by

providing you a summary of the trends in temporary employment in 2012. TrendLine, this

month, provides you with ac� onable insights into the con� ngent staffi ng industry while

showcasing pivotal trending themes. With our ever-growing diverse range of sources, we

analyze con� ngent worker supply and demand to bring you predic� ve forecasts of wage trends

and market standing.

As always we start our edi� on with the DCR Na� onal Temp Wage Index, focusing

specifi cally on key forecasts for the fi rst quarter of 2013. Our fi rst feature ar� cle is a

highlightsoriented compara� ve analysis of 2012 trends in both temporary and private

employment. Pay par� cular a� en� on to the compara� ve employment index graphs, and

our insigh� ul conclusions regarding these categories. Con� nuing our a� en� on to the

year past, we provide you with a breakdown of the employment in the super sectors over

2012, including an analysis of one featured industry. We also follow-up our previous edi� on

ar� cles on online job searches with an analysis for Monster’s employment index of online job

pos� ngs.

We then shi� our focus to 2013 with a feature on hiring in the service sector (“Service

Sector Hiring to Hit Four-Year High”), and follow this analysis with projec� ons for employment

trends in the upcoming year. Look out for our forecasted projec� ons on the largest industries

to grow in terms of employment in the upcoming year. We con� nue this sec� on with a special

piece on youth employment with specifi c analysis and advice for gradua� ng college students

searching for employment.

Our fi nal piece this month explores the trend of unstructured data analysis. We discuss the

importance of using this valuable informa� on, and the challenges companies face as they try to

solve the mystery of this intricate data source. This ar� cle also features an internal case study

proving the value of unraveling the intricacies of unstructured complex data.

On a concluding note, the DCR Market Intelligence Editorial Staff , along with the en� re

worker-base of DCR Workforce, would like to extend our wishes for a happy holiday season with

con� nued peace, joy, and success in 2013!

Ammu WarrierAmmu Warrier, President

Inside this Issue

Note from the Editor

DCR National Temp Wage Index

Year in Review: A Comparative Look at the Temporary and Private Employment Trends in 2012

Super Sectors over the Year

Online Job Growth

Service-Sector Hiring to Hit FourYear High

Employment Projection in 2013

Focusing on Youth: Temporary Employment and Safeguards

Unstructured Data Analysis: From Mystery to Magic

Methodology

References

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

10

12

14

14

“In the next 12 months, com-

panies will re-imagine how

work gets done, who does it,

and what tools they use to ac-

complish the task. Workforce

changes that started during

the recession will intensify, in-

cluding off ering more fl exibil-

ity over where and when their

people work, and relying on

more con� ngent and contract

workers” ~Workforce.com

REPORT # 11 | January 2013

TRENDLINEContingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report

Note from the Editor

Trend Line: Con� ngent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 1

tensify, in-

ering more fl exibil-

ver where and when their


ession will intensify, in-

cluding off ering more fl exibil-

ver where and when their


the rec

cluding off

ity over where and when their


“

ers” ~Workforcwork

According to the Freelancers Union, nearly one in three American workers are freelancers,

contractors, or con� ngent workers. And 19 percent of them say that they have doubled

their income in the past year.

During the start of the year, we expect to fi nd temporary worker wages on the rela� vely higher side, which could drop

slightly towards the end of the fi rst quarter.

Forty-six percent of hiring managers and recruiters expect addi� onal hiring during the fi rst half of 2013 as compared

to the second half of 2012. Meanwhile, 44 percent of hiring managers and recruiters say that current economic

condi� ons are having no substan� al impact on their hiring plans.




ome in the pas



their income in the pas

DCR National Temp Wage Index

Low-wage industries like retail and hospitality are known to employ a high number of part-� me workers and are

preparing for the largest increase in costs, with 46 percent saying they’re expec� ng costs to increase by a minimum of

3%. The health care industry is in a similar situa� on, with 40 percent expec� ng that same increase in costs.

2012 was a strong year for temporary workers, as year-over-year, the number of temporary help jobs rose by

182,800 The United States added 18,000 Temp jobs in November with the jobless rate down to 7.7%. The temporary

penetra� on rate rose to 1.91% in November from 1.90% in October.

Meanwhile, in private employment, college-level employment, which is considered similar to professional employment,

remained at 3.8% (the same as last month), which dropped in October by 0.3% compared to September’s 4.1%. Hurricane

Sandy also did not substan� vly impact the na� onal employment and unemployment es� mates for November 2012.

Year in Review: A Comparative Look at the Temporary and Private Employment Trends in 2012

Temporary Employment Index

Private Employment Index

Comparison in Employment Index (Jan 2009 to Nov 2012)

Facts and Figures – A Comparison of Temporary and Private Workforce Trends


Trend

Number of months with a positive change in employment (Jan 2009 – Nov 2012):

Number of months with a negative change in employment (Jan 2009 – Nov 2012):

Total employment created in 2012

Average employment growth per month in 2012

Temporary

36

11

187,300

17,027

Private

14

33

169,700

154,272.70

Comparing the indexes of both

categories of employment, it

is interes� ng to observe that

temporary employment, using

January 2010 as a reference point,

immediately began to rise, while

private employment only started

to see some improvement in May

2012.

Out of the 47 months from Jan

2009 to Nov 2012, temporary

employment has shown posi� ve

increment during 36 months,

whereas total private job has had a

posi� ve increment in employment

for 33 months.

Finally, we really see the strength

of the temporary employments

with temporary jobs increasing

by 30.39 index points above the

reference, whereas private job

could only make .82 index points

above reference.

Super Sectors Over the Year


During the last year, Professional and Busi-

ness Services have shown a maximum

growth of 3.04 index points followed by Lei-

sure and Hospitality at 2.27 index points and

Transporta� on and Warehousing by 2.09 in-

dex point.

Temporary Help Services falls as a part of

Professional and Business Services, which

has had a remarkable growth trend with a

higher change in index points than total pri-

vate jobs together. The sector also shows the

maximum months of posi� ve increment in

employment over the last four years.

Industries showing a no� ceable increment

in November 2012 are Retail Trade (53,000),

Professional and Business Services (43,000),

and Health Care (20,000)

The Employment Service industry - mostly includes temporary help services, employment placements agencies, execu� ve search services and

professional employer organiza� ons - rose by 3,800 jobs with a total employment of 3.21 million.

Temporary nurses in healthcare services

proved to be a lifesaver for 1.3 million pa-

� ents across California, Florida, New Jersey,

and Pennsylvania, in more than 600 hospi-

tals. This trend also contradicts the myth

that “poor pa� ent outcomes once believed

associated with the hiring of supplemen-

tal nurses in hospitals” (study published by

Health Services Research) is actually caused

by poor working condi� ons within those

hospitals.

According to this new study by researchers

at the University Of Pennsylvania School Of

Nursing, the American Staffi ng Associa� on

emphasized the importance of temporary

nurses for the industry and pa� ent care

“Our study showed these nurses could be lifesavers…Hiring temporary nurses can alleviate shortages that could produce

higher pa� ent mortality.” ~Linda Aiken, lead researcher and professor of sociology and nursing

Super Sector Change in Employment (year-over-year)

Online Posting Year-over-Year and Index

Online staffi ng brought in a new set of workers, which was not previously possible, either technically or economically.

As per a survey, 71% of the respondent want to engage more online workers, whereas the remainder either preferred to stay at the

same level or less. Out of those that wish to onboard more online workers, 61% of the survey respondent plan to increase their spend

by 50% or more.

Online staffi ng triggered investments by the companies. Total es� mated global spend in 2009 was $250 million (approx.), whereas

2012 total investment increased around four � mes to $1 billion.

Online Job Growth


In Percentage

(Source: Monster.com via Staffi ng Industry Report Webinar – December 2012)

(Source: Monster.com via Staffi ng Industry Report Webinar – December 2012)

170 12%

160 10%

1508%

1406%

1304%

120

2%110

0%170

According to a na� onal employment report released by the Society for Human Resources a Management, hiring in the service

sector is expected to hit an all � me high since the last four years.

43.3 percent of service sector companies will hire while 9.3 percent will reduce their workforce, resul� ng in a net increase of 34

percent. This shows an increment of 21.8 percent compare to December 2011.

Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector is expected to slightly reduce their hiring for the fi rst � me in the last fi ve months. However,

a net of 25.3 percent of manufacturers plan to add jobs in December 2012. That compares to a net increase of 29.1 percent in

December 2011.

Service-Sector Hiring to Hit Four-Year High


(Source: December 2012 SHRM LINE Report)

The Engineering industry is expected to grow by 5%, Finance and Accoun� ng by 7%, and Legal by 2%.

It’s important to remember more than 1.3 million private sector jobs have been created this year and business condi� ons point to

con� nued modest job growth,” said Scot Melland, chairman, president and CEO of Dice Holdings.

U.S. unemployment will stay close to the current 7.9 percent rate in 2013 but gradually decline to 7.2 percent by the end of 2014,

according to the UCLA Anderson Forecast’s fourth and fi nal quarterly report of 2012.

The outlook predicts that the U.S. gross domes� c product will grow at less than a 2 percent annual rate through mid-2013. A" er that,

the forecast expects growth to pick up and exceed 3 percent for most of 2014 with housing ac� vity leading the way. By the end of

the forecast period, infl a� on is expected to be above the 2 percent target, bringing an end to the zero-interest-rate policy that has

been in place since late 2008.


2013 Major Industries Contributing to Employment


2013 Major Industries Contributing to Employment

(Source: UCLA Anderson Forecast and Staffi ng Industry Analysts)

According to Ma� Ferguson, the CEO of CareerBuilder, the “U.S. will produce the most jobs in 2013 is likely to follow growth pa� erns

of the last few years”, especially that of 2012 onwards.

Professionals such as so� ware developers and computer analysts in IT-related jobs, and sales representa� ves in wholesale, along

with scien� fi c trade posi� ons are likely to see an improvement. People with technical degrees, such as mechanical or industrial

engineering and logis� cs, are also expected to see a posi� ve trend for employment.

As per an economic panel and forecast, the U.S. economy output will slowly rise from 1.9% to 3% by the fourth quarter of 2013.

Growth in employment is expected at a steady rate.


Employment Outlook in 2013

Projection: Top 10 Industry to Grow (Employment) in 2013


Top 10 Industry (month-over-month) growth in Employment (2010-2012)



Professional and technical services

Temporary help services

Employment services

Food services and drinking places

Accommoda� on and food services

Health care

Administra� ve and support services

Administra� ve and waste services

Health care and social assistance

Educa� on and health services

In spite of a few challenges emerging from the recovering economy, a few sectors will con� nue to boom, such as contract and

temporary help services and the service sector. As per the Na� onal Restaurant Associa� ons (NRA) Restaurant Industry Forecast for

2013, America’s over 980,000 restaurants are expected to have record sales in 2013 with a close to 4% increase from 2012. This will

con� nue to be one of the largest job creators in its segment, which is close to 13.1 million workers engaged in 2013.

The Department of Labor (DOL) had a budget request in FY 2013 of $12 billion in discre� onary budget authority and 17,419 full-� me

equivalent employees (FTEs). This request is to support the Secretary of Labor’s vision of “good jobs for everyone”, as discussed in

detail in the DOL’s Strategic Plan. The Plan is an outline of the DOL’s strategic and outcome goals over fi scal years 2011 to 2016

WHD Safeguards the Young / Minor employee

Youth Employment 2012: Facts and Figures

Holiday Bring Increase in Temporary EmploymentFor many retailers, the holiday shopping season is a “make or break” period that can defi ne their bo� om lines for the en� re year.

Temporary and part-� me employment spikes as retailers and other businesses increase staffi ng to accommodate their seasonal

increase in business.

Many students experience an increase both in their free � me and their need for extra cash around the holidays. As many retailers

have an increased need for seasonal/ part-� me help at that same � me, many employers will fi ll their seasonal and/or part-� me

posi� ons with young workers. It is o� en a good fi t for both par� es.

The Department of Labor’s Wage and Hour Division (WHD) aims to promote and enforce compliance with labor standards,

par� cularly as it relates to child labor. Youths aged 14 and 15 can be employed outside of school hours in a variety of

non-manufacturing and non-hazardous jobs for limited periods of � me and under specifi ed condi� ons. Any work not specifi cally

permi� ed, as per the DOL’s child labor regula� ons, is prohibited. Those aged 16 or 17 can be employed for an unlimited range of

hours in any occupa� on except for those deemed hazardous by the Secretary of Labor.

According to the Bureau of Labor Standards, the youth labor force (16 to 24 year olds working or ac� vely looking for jobs) had

employment reaching 19.5 million in July 2012. The labor force par� cipa� on rate for all youth in July 2012 was at 60.5%



College graduates, despite an improving

economy and job market, have an uphill climb

towards fi nding employment post-gradua� on.

According to the Economics Policy Ins� tute,

almost 50% of recent college graduates are

unemployed or underemployed. And per a

July 2012 Wall Street Journal Ar� cle, young

graduates face the bleakest odds amongst all

job seekers with a real unemployment rate

around 17%.

However, Forbes Magazine, along with

several career consultants, encourage collage

students to target temporary employment as

an avenue for a career. With temporary jobs

increasing for nine consecu� ve quarters, it is

a legi� mate strategy to pursue.

Even hotspots for young workers, such as Silicon Valley, project employment growth to be made up primarily of contract or

lower-salary opportuni� es. Dr. Bonnie Snyder, author and college/career consultant, points to temporary labor as the one hopeful

point of the disappoint college job reports, and advices unemployed college graduate to seek opportuni� es with local temporary

agencies. She states that “temporary work can be like a paid internship…if you do a good job, it’s likely that the employer will seek

ways to try to keep you on.” Members of the class of 2012 have stated fi nding success by using internships and work-study programs

not just as resume boosters but also gateways to permanent jobs.

“Employers remain hesitant to add permanent employees due to uncertainty about the current strength of the economy and

future economic condi� ons, including impeding tax increases and spending cuts expected to take eff ect in January 2013. In � mes

like these, businesses are being much more strategic in sourcing addi� onal talent and maintaining workforce fl exibility” ~Richard

Wahlquist, CEO of ASA


Prospects Bleak for Recent College Grads




• Sen� ment analysis

• Mul� -Dimension Scaling

• Word Frequency

• Document classifi ca� on

• Intelligent spam fi lter

• Trend Detec� on

• Social Network Analysis

• Mul� lingual text mining

• Anomaly detec� on

• Live stream analysis

• Big data and mul� ple sources

• Clustering

Quick winning applications to start with in Unstructured Data Analysis

Applications for steady users of text mining

Compe� ng on analy� cs has spawned poster-boys in the tech boom. Agile, early adopter of new technologies, companies that

embraced innova� on and technology stood tall above the compe� � on. Moore’s law ensured processing came easy, cheaper and

faster. So" ware costs came down and more and more open source so" ware con� nues to make analy� cs even more exci� ng. In the

new fron� er that excites innova� ve companies, unstructured data analysis has been most prominent. The fi eld is o" en referred to

by many similar and equivalent, but some� mes misquoted sciences - Natural Language Processing, Computa� onal Linguis� cs, or

text/web mining are but a few. In this ar� cle, we unravel the mystery and power of unstructured data analysis so that managers can

implement and use to their advantage.

An enterprise generates unstructured data in mul� ple forms and formats.. Emails, contracts, policies, standard opera� ng

procedures, mee� ng minutes, sharepoint and shared drive documents, presenta� ons, consul� ng reports, audit reports, archives,

invoices, customer feedback – the list is endless. Structured data is in form of tables, which most of us know of through

spreadsheet packages like Excel. Many of us can “play” around with structured data using our excel skills but need the company’s

analy� cs person to analyze customer feedback from mul� ple customers. We need addi� onal skills and tools to wade through the

maze. Meanwhile, companies cannot aff ord to ignore cri� cal data in text form, but they don’t possess the capacity to analyze

data beyond the immediate purpose for which it is generated.

What is Unstructured Data in a Firm?

The challenge is steep but then we have come a long way. As men� oned earlier, processing power, bandwidth and big data making huge storage and processing power once available only to na� ons and biggest corporate, are now available to lay users at a pi� ance. Growing research in the area is encouraging adop� on in an increasing number of areas. Open source tools are available and sophis� cated add-ons to these are updated frequently. Many of the popular analysis and sta� s� cal packages have a text mining add-on or op� on too, and many of these are very sophis� cated at that.

In a pilot done by DCR Workforce, candidate profi les were used to do machine learning and “train” the algorithm to grasp features from a test data of resumes of candidates applying for a technical job posi� on. Subsequently, a" er valida� on of classifi ca� on of candidates into Accept/Reject categories, the algorithm was run on fresh resumes. A further improvement and larger database to improve outcomes resulted in a score each for all unseen resumes. Recruiters now could review profi les and shortlist for interview in a decreasing order of priority of profi les. Valuable hours were saved for recruiters, and metrics like resumes read per candidate selected and resumes maintained, shortlisted, selec� vity ra� o- all showed signifi cant improvement.

As you can imagine, many big data sources are unstructured, resul� ng in the analysis of unstructured data to emerge as a popular topic for managers in a whole array of industries. Industry leaders are star� ng to recognize the importance of unraveling this valuable informa� on with appropriate informa� on extrac� on into a manageable size and format. Having this valuable insight into the “big picture” rather than a simple sample set will allow companies to make key decisions substan� al to enhancing business performance. The mystery of unstructured data can truly turn into a magical formula for companies in all sectors.

Next month, we con� nue our examina� on of u� lizing unstructured data, par� cularly the methods for extrac� on. Look out for an interes� ng follow-up ar� cle in which we discuss another applica� on of text mining using customer feedback data.

In many ways text is like data, but it is important to keep in mind that text is not data. Even in the ways that text mimics data, it is not

readily so and needs some massaging and “structuring” to mold it into a shape fi t for analysis.

To understand the challenge of unstructured data, think back to grade school. How diff erent were the subjects Mathema� cs and

English in school for you? Solving the puzzle really boils down to playing English by the rules of mathema� cs and sta� s� cs while s� ll

trea� ng it as English; and therein lies the challenge. In other words, one needs to convert text to numbers so that powerful algo-

rithms can be applied for meaningful analyses.

Text data has rules of syntax, grammar and expression, resul� ng in the same content being able to carry diff erent meanings.

How true! is not the same as How is it true? The interpreta� on is also domain-sensi� ve. So, the same text could acquire diff erent

meanings when used in media and entertainment or in say, medical research. Likewise, there are dialect-specifi c or culture-specifi c

nuances, sarcasm and emo� ons that alter meaning that must be inferred from context than mere words. All of this complicates

analysis.

Complica� on in analysis has its own secondary problems too. One needs powerful algorithms, unique training of machine to a

model, since most text mining applica� ons are context-specifi c and then it needs large scale processing. In fact, all serious users of

text mining know the latest buzzword, “big data”, very quickly.

Another challenge is in terms of achieved accuracy levels in using predic� ve analy� cs or algorithms in classifying text data. O" en a

60-70% accuracy is the best achievable. It may s� ll be an asset compared to not using text mining, because it possibly took seconds

and one is at least not worse off by using it. But addressing this issue appears op� mis� c due to recent improvements in research,

accessibility and computa� onal powers.


Challenge of Unstructured Data

The Good News

A Case Study: Recruitment Streamlining through Algorithm Based Candidate Profi le Classifi cation

Going Forward


Methodology


References:h! p://social.dol.gov/blog/� s-the-season-of-holiday-hiring/

h! ps://staffi ngindustry.com

h! p://www.dol.gov/dol/budget/2013/bib.htm#.UMpa23Pjnhs

The DCR Wage Index is developed to assess the rela� ve movements of temporary wage rates in the U.S. economy. The

wage rates for temporary workers or con� ngent workforce are based on payments made by staffi ng fi rms to these

workers based upon hours worked. Data collected from sources such as Bureau of Labor Standards (BLS) and other

government sites as well as an internal pool of staffi ng companies and consultants, is aggregated and classifi ed based

on regions and skill categories, to arrive at an aggregate index.

The baseline for the index is set at 100 for January 2007. Index value for a par� cular month indicates rela� ve wages with

the said baseline and is representa� ve in terms of direc� on and scale of change. Five years of data has been included

to observe seasonal pa! erns and dis� nguish seasonality from long-term wage movements. The data and the model has

been further refi ned over last six months.

DCR Wage Index combines the exhaus� ve data from BLS with prac� cal and more recent developments and data from

on-fi eld consultants and clients, to provide � mely near-term indica� ons of trends and consistent long-term ac� onable

and objec� ve informa� on.

Source Data

DCR Work Index uses mul� ple economic variables to ensure the robustness of its forecasts and cross-valida� on

of trends.

Key data sources and parameters of interest included and infl uencing the index are:

Unemployment data

Gross Domes� c Product

Prime rate of interest

New and seasonal Job openings

Non Form employment

Job Opening

All Export

All Import

Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees Total Private

Aggregate consultant data on job market parameters

About DCR Workforce


DCR Workforce is an award winning, best-in-class service provider for con� ngent workforce and services

procurement management. Our proprietary SaaS pla! orm (SMART TRACK) assists in providing customizable VMS

and MSP Solu� ons to manage, procure and analyze your talent with complete transparency, real-� me control, high

performance and decision-enabling business intelligence.

DCR Workforce serves global clientele including several Fortune 1000 companies. Customers realize greater

effi ciencies; spend control, improved workforce quality and 100% compliance with our services.

For more informa� on about DCR Workforce and its Forecas� ng Toolkit (Rate, Demand, Supply and Intelligence)

including Best Prac� ce Portal, visit dcrworkforce.com

For more informa� on call +1-888-DCR-4VMS or visit www.dcrworkforce.com

Public Rela� ons:

Debra Bergevine

508-380-4039

7815 NW Beacon Square Blvd. #224 Boca Raton, FL 33487

[email protected] | [email protected] | marke� [email protected]

www.dcrworkforce.com | blog.dcrworkforce.com

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© 2012 DCR Workforce, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DCR Workforce and Smart Track are Registered Trademarks. CCO — 082912

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