Consumer Discretionary

Luan Luong, Sr. P.M.Kenny Sekhon, S.A.

Matt Seminara, InternMarissa Mendez, Intern

Adrian Chao, Intern11/21/2016

Sector Analysis• Unique analysis about the sector

Market Leaders

Source: Bloomberg ProfessionalICS > GICS > Member Companies by Market Cap.

Current Holdings

Source: Bloomberg ProfessionalPORT > Holdings> SIFPORT vs. BENCHMARK_SPY

Current HoldingsDescription

Original Purchase

Date

Price ( 11/20/1

6 )Purchase

Price Quantity Total Return

XLY 11/08/11 $81.20 $63.23 232 $14,669.36

+28.42%

Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (BWLD)

11/05/13 $166.40 $149.40$182.59$191.40

Avg. $173.95

23 (11/13)27 (12/14)19 (08/15)Total: 69

$12,002.55

-4.34%

Gentex Crop. (GNTX)

11/24/15 $18.01 $16.64 300 $4,992.00

+8.23%

GameStop Crop. (GME)

04/05/16 $23.46 $30.54 320 $9,772.80

-23.18%

New Oriental Education (EDU)

08/07/15 $50.20 $22.90 384 $8,793.60

+119.21%

Overweight by 1.35% (as of 11/20/16)

AlphaDescription Recommendati

onInterpretation Justification

XLY +2 Semi-Strong Buy • Hold XLY until interest rates normalize and political uncertainty clears

Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (BWLD)

0 Hold • Activist investor• Share buybacks• Relatively overvalued• Declining same store sales

Gentex Crop. (GNTX)

0 Hold/Watch • Dominant market share• Growth prospects• Relatively undervalued

GameStop Crop. (GME)

-3 Strong Sell • Lack of durable competitive advantage• Physical disc obsolescence • Declining same-store sales

New Oriental Education & Technology (EDU)

-2 Semi-Strong Sell • Political uncertainty• Long-term growth prospects

Disney (DIS) +1 Weak Buy • Well diversified entertainment company

• Durable competitive advantage• Return to growth FY2018

River ScoreTICKER DESCRIPTION PAST PRESENT FUTURE INTUITIONTECHNICAL RIVER

EDU NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION 0.80 0.43 0.01 0.50 0.33 0.41

GNTX GENTEX 0.76 0.67 0.89 0.50 0.33 0.63

BWLD BUFFALO WILD WINGS 0.67 0.37 1.74 0.20 0.17 0.63

CTB COOPER TIRE & RUBBER CO 0.68 0.77 0.01 0.30 0.50 0.45

EXPR EXPRESS INC 0.54 0.70 1.00 0.00 -0.33 0.38

TOL TOLL BROTHERS 0.38 0.70 0.01 0.10 0.67 0.37

CCL CARNIVAL CRUISE LINE 0.51 0.72 -0.04 0.50 0.00 0.34

DDS DILLARDS INC 0.60 0.73 -0.04 0.30 0.00 0.32

PHM PULTEGROUP INC 0.38 0.82 0.26 0.20 -0.33 0.26

TMHC TAYLOR MORRISO 0.40 0.77 -0.06 0.00 0.17 0.25

LEN LENNAR CORP 0.40 0.69 0.01 0.40 -0.33 0.23

DIS WALT DISNEY CO. 0.44 0.57 -0.90 1.00 0.00 0.22

LTRPA LIBERTY TRIPADVISOR 0.48 0.80 -0.06 0.10 -0.33 0.20

ODP OFFICE DEPOT INC 0.30 0.69 -0.03 0.20 -0.17 0.20

VIAB VIACOM 0.42 0.74 -0.06 0.00 -0.17 0.19

GME GAMESTOP 0.47 0.63 -0.68 0.00 -0.33 0.02

Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)

Key StatsLast Price $166.40Market Cap. $3.03BEV $3.07BEV/EBITDA 9.98FY Ends 12/27/1

5P/E 28.07PEG 1.32P/B 4.68BVPS 34.57P/S 1.53Div. Yield n/a52-wk High $172.9252-wk Low $122.25Sh. Out. 18.2MTotal Debt $100.68

MDebt/Equity 15.93Current Ratio

0.58

YTD Performance

News and Press ReleasesMarcato Capital Management LP Urges BWW to add relevant talent and overhaul how it makes capital allocation decisions.Buffalo Wild Wings to Introduce New Craft Beer from Lagunitas Brewing Company.BWW launches half-price wing Tuesdays nationwide.

Company Profile• Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. owns, operates, and franchises casual dining restaurants. The

restaurants feature made to order menu items including New York Style chicken wings.• Founded in 1982, and headquartered in Minneapolis.• BWW’s specializes in 21 signature sauces, and an atmosphere that includes an extensive

multi-media system for watching sporting events.CEO and President: Sally Smith

Key Ratios: BWLD Buffalo

Wild Wings(BWLD)

Brinker International

(EAT)

Darden Restaurants

(DRI)Industry

(Restaurants)Last Price $166.40 $53.64 $72.84 n/aMarket Cap. $3.03B $2.66B $8.97B $1,1189.9BP/E 28.07 15.49 19.53 20.30PEG 1.32 1.28 1.54 1.34P/B 4.68 -- 4.95 4.06P/S 1.53 0.94 1.32 1.04Dividend Yield n/a 2.41% 2.91% 1.33%ROA 10.42% 12.68% 7.67% 4.50%ROE 16.23% -- 18.88% 13.78%Net Margin 5.27% 5.86% 5.73% 7.50%# of Restaurants 1,219 1,660 1,536 --

Key Ratios (Bloomberg): BWLD

Source: Bloomberg ProfessionalRV > Ticker > Custom Analysis

Headwinds Tailwinds• Same store sales down

• “We saw continued pressure on same-store sales this quarter, reflecting the current challenging restaurant environment. Same-store sales decreased 1.8% at company-owned restaurants and 1.6% at franchise locations.” (f2016, Q3 Results)

• Activist Investor• Marcato Capital Management LP has

acquired 5.2% stake in company. • Focused on redefining capital

allocation decisions to unlock shareholder value.

• 90% franchise model• Margin Pressure

• Lower Prices (Half-price wing Tuesdays)• Shifting Consumer Behavior

• “Buffalo Wild Wings is exploring delivery to meet the needs of fans who are choosing an in-home dining experience.”

• Postmates, UberEATS, DoorDash

• Share buyback• On August 16, 2016 BWW increased

repurchase program by $300 million, to a total of $375 million.

• To be financed with cash and debt.

• Highly reliant on chicken wing prices and sporting licenses

• “Chicken wing prices in 2015 averaged 18.1% higher than 2014.”

• Changing consumer tastes• High employee turnover and low net margin

industry

Qualitative Analysis: BWLD

Technical Analysis: BWLDGolden Cross:

050-Sma: 1

200-Sma: 1

Source: Bloomberg ProfessionalGP > Ticker > SIF Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis: BWLDBollinger Bands: -1

RSI: -1MACD: 0

Source: Bloomberg ProfessionalGP > Ticker > SIF Technical Analysis

BWLD Price TargetBWLD

GB Model $209.46Dividend Discount Model

$198.534

Analyst Estimates $162.78Market-Based $178.65Price Target (Average)

$187.36

Key StatsLast Price $23.46Market Cap. $2.44BEV $2.88BEV/EBITDA 3.53FY Ends 01/30/1

6P/E 6.19PEG 0.93P/B 1.13BVPS 20.68P/S 1.13Div. Yield 6.22%52-wk High $38.2352-wk Low $20.10Sh. Out. 103.98

MTotal Debt $813.50

MDebt/Equity 37.82Current Ratio

1.59

YTD Performance

News and Press ReleasesGME shares fall 11% after company reports disappointing preliminary earnings and same store sales decline of 6-7%

Company Profile• GameStop Corporation operates specialty electronic game and PC entertainment

software stores throughout the United States, Australia, Canada, and Europe. • The company stores sell new and used video game hardware, video game software, and

accessories, as well as PC entertainment software and related accessories and other merchandise.

• Founded in 1984, GameStop is headquartered in Grapevine, Texas, and operates in 14 countries.

CEO: J. Paul Raines

(GME)

GameStop (GME)GameStop

(GME)Best Buy

(BBY)Amazon.Com

(AMZN)Industry (Specialty

Retail)Last price $23.46 $44.76 $760.16 n/aMarket Cap. $2.44B $14.21B $361.20B $162.86BP/E 6.07 14.20 173.73 17.02PEG 0.71 1.07 1.20 3.93P/B 1.13 3.34 20.31 3.66P/S 0.27 0.37 2.80 1.00Dividend Yield 6.22% 4.40% -- 2.09%ROA 9.98% 7.40% 3.31% 8.24%ROE 19.30% 24.69% 13.93% 16.92%

GME: Relative Analysis

Source: Bloomberg ProfessionalRV > Ticker > Custom Analysis

Qualitative Analysis: GMEHeadwinds Tailwinds

• Same store sales down• Same store sales projected to be down 6-7% in

Q4, based on preliminary earnings report (GME will report earnings on 11/22/16).

• Diversifying portfolio• GameStop owns 900 Sprint Mobile

stores, 76 Simply Mac stores, and publishes Game Informer (2.5 million subscribers).

• Physical video game obsolescence• With a digital download, most games allow you

to pre-load titles ahead of release, so you don’t have to muck through that on launch day.

• Digital revenue continues to climb as more and more players download games from PSN and XBL directly (and of course PC players have been doing this for years).

• Relatively undervalued• Lower price-ratios relative to peers

with higher dividend payout, if sustainable.

• Lack of a durable competitive advantage• Fierce competition from Amazon, Wal-Mart, and

BestBuy.

• Upcoming holiday season

Technical Analysis: GMEDeath Cross: -1

50-Sma: -1200-Sma: -1

Source: Bloomberg ProfessionalGP > Ticker > SIF Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis: GMEBollinger Bands: 0

RSI: 0MACD: 1

Source: Bloomberg ProfessionalGP > Ticker > SIF Technical Analysis

Price Target: GMEGME

GB Model $17.95Dividend Discount Model

$35.362

Analyst Estimates $27.20Market-Based $69.16Price Target (Average)

$26.84

We decided to throw this model out due to an “irrationally exuberant” price target generated.

Key StatsLast Price $98.24Market Cap. $157.88

BEV $171.88

BEV/EBITDA 10.18FY Ends 10/01/1

6P/E 17.14PEG 1.59P/B 3.63BVPS 27.04P/S 2.84Div. Yield 1.45%52-wk High $120.6552-wk Low $86.25Sh. Out. 1.61BTotal Debt $20.17BDebt/Equity 42.62Current Ratio

1.01

YTD Performance

News and Press ReleasesDisney results disappoint as cable revenue declines, but shares up 3% after CEO offers upbeat outlook.Bob Iger says “we've taken a more bullish position on the future of ESPN's sub-base.”Disney: ‘Avatar’ Land Will Open in Orlando in Summer of 2017

Company Profile• The Walt Disney Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an entertainment

company worldwide.• The company operates broadcast and cable television networks, domestic television

stations, and radio networks and stations; and is involved in the television production and television distribution operations.

• Its cable networks include ESPN, Disney Channels, and ABC Family, as well as UTV/Bindass and Hungama.

• Other ventures include: Theme parks, film studio, cruise line, life stage plays, sale of merchandise through retail stores, and interactive media platforms, among others.

• Disney was founded in 1923 and is based in Burbank, California.CEO: Robert “Bob” Iger

(DIS)

Disney: Entertainment ConglomerateCable Networks Studio Entertainment• ESPN (80%) • Walt Disney Pictures• Disney Channels (100%) • Pixar• The Disney Channels (over 100 channels in 34 languages and

163 countries) • Marvel• ABC Family/Freeform (100%) • Lucasfilm• ABC Family produces original live-action programming. • Touchstone• Hungama/UTV/Bindass Indian programming • UTV (India)• A&E (50%) • Hungama (India)• A&E, History, Lifetime Interactive and RetailBroadcasting • Disney Music Group• The Company also has a 33% interest in Hulu LLC (Hulu) • Disney Theatrical Group• 50% effective interest in Fusion Media Networks LLC (Fusion) • Consumer ProductsParks and Resorts • Interactive: console and mobile games• Walt Disney Resort in Florida• Disney Resort in California• Aulani, a Disney Resort & Spa in Hawaii• Disney Cruise Line• Disneyland Paris (81%)• Disneyland Hong Kong Resort (47%)• Shanghai Disney Resort (43%)• Hotel and other Resort Facilities

Disney: Revenue by SegmentRevenue (in billions) Percent of Total

Media Networks 23.689 41.7%Parks and Resorts 16.974 29.9%Studio Entertainment 9.441 16.6%Consumer Products 5.528 9.7%Interactive Media 1.174 2.1%Total 56.806 100.0%

Disney: Revenue by Geography

GeographyRevenue (in billions)

Percent of Total

US and Canada 40.32 76.9%Europe 6.507 12.4%Asia Pacific 3.958 7.5%Latin America 1.68 3.2%Total 52.465 100.0%

Qualitative Analysis: DisneyHeadwinds Tailwinds

Cord-cutting/Cord-shaving• Adverse impact to ESPN.

Skinny bundles and DTC• ESPN streaming bundles in 2017.• BAMTech acquisition.

Margin Pressure• Rising licensing costs (NBA)• Costs to broadcast NBA events will rise to

$600 million in 2017.

Analyst Upgrades• Upgraded to buy by Deutsche Bank on

improved outlook with PT: $112.• Upgraded by JP Morgan.

Political Uncertainty• Candidate Trump (trade war with China)

/President Trump (pragmatic).

Analysts predict increase in theme park attendance• Increasing Parks and Resorts attendance

with addition of Shanghai Disney.Terror risk• Visitors at Disney Paris remain low due to

recent terrorist attacks.

Synergies within operating segments• Merchandise, theme park rides, and

interactive media often see sales increases after a blockbuster film, such as Frozen.

Key person risk• The firm’s stock rose 335% between CEO Bob

Iger’s appointment in March 2005 and one year ago, when the stock peaked at $120 a share.

Return to growth in FY2018.• Management believes FY 2017 will be an

anomaly to earnings, and expects the company to return to growth in FY 2018.

Disney Weighed Ratio Analysis

Segment P/EWeighted

Average P/BWeighted

Average ROAWeighted

Average ROEWeighted

AverageMedia & Studio (58.3%)TWX 16.44 2.89 18.7% 18.7%FOX 15.03 3.74 7.0% 20.0%VIAB 10.38 3.54 6.4% 36.8%CBS 15.38 4.92 6.8% 29.1%

Industry Average 14.3 8.3 3.8 2.2 9.7% 5.7% 26.2% 15.2%Theme Parks (29.9%)SIX 43.16 37.34 4.4% 29.9%FUN 19.75 32.08 7.7% 137.7%

Industry Average 31.5 9.4 34.7 10.4 6.0% 1.8% 83.8% 25.1%Interactive Content (2.10%)EA 29.85 6.53 19.5% 37.1%TTWO 101.43 7.16 0.1% 0.5%ATVI 34.06 3.24 5.0% 9.7%

Industry Average 55.1 1.2 5.6 0.1 8.2% 0.2% 15.8% 0.3%Consumer Products (9.70%)Mattel Inc. 25.1 4.38 5.4% 14.5%Hasbro 20.23 6.07 11.2% 32.5%

Industry Average 22.7 2.2 5.2 0.5 8.3% 0.8% 23.5% 2.3%Weighted Average 21.1 13.2 8.5% 42.9%

Relative Analysis (Bloomberg): Disney

Source: Bloomberg ProfessionalRV > Ticker > Custom Analysis

Technical Analysis: DISDeath Cross: -1

50-Sma: 1200-Sma: 1

Source: Bloomberg ProfessionalGP > Ticker > SIF Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis: DIS

Bollinger Bands: -1

RSI: 0MACD: 0

Source: Bloomberg ProfessionalGP > Ticker > SIF Technical Analysis

Price Target: DISDIS

GB Model $59.83Dividend Discount Model

$77.323

Analyst Estimates $107.35Market-Based $179.04Price Target (Average)

$105.89

Key StatsLast Price $18.01Market Cap. $5.16BEV $4.668BEV/EBITDA 7.8FY Ends 12/2015P/E 15.0PEG 1.3P/B 2.78BVPS 6.48P/S 3.13Div. Yield 1.94%52-wk High $18.3052-wk Low $12.93Sh. Out. 286.5MTotal Debt $426.2

MDebt/Equity 13.5%Current Ratio

7.51

YTD Performance

News and Press ReleasesGNTX reports Q3 2016 earnings with revenues increasing 10% and net income up 18%.Gentex Corporation announces increase in quarterly cash dividend rate.GNTX to unveil an intelligent rear vision system that uses a rearward-facing camera and mirror-integrated video display to optimize a vehicle's rearward view.

Company Profile• Gentex Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets products that use electro-optic

technology. The company’s product lines include automatic-dimming rearview mirrors and fire protection products.

• Gentex’s Night Vision Safety Mirror automatically darkens to the degree required to eliminate rearview headlight glare. The company sells its products around the world.

• Founded in Michigan, in 1974; today Gentex ships to 26 OEMs, and its products and are on over 470 different types of vehicles.

CEO: Fred Bauer

(GNTX)

Metric GENTEX(GNTX)

CONTINENTAL (CON)

KOITO MANUFACTURI

NGIndustry (Auto

Parts)

Last price 18.01 169.75 18.01 --Market Cap. 5.16B 33.95B 5.16B 717.81BP/E 15.01 12.76 17.10 24.45PEG 1.3 2.3 -- 1.04

P/B 2.78 2.58 3.22 3.67P/S 3.13 0.85 1.16 2.06Dividend Yield 1.94% -- -- 1.74%ROA 15.85% 7.77% 9.64% 7.15%ROE 19.69% 20.97% 19.60% 16.87%

Relative Analysis: GNTX

Relative Analysis (Bloomberg): GNTX

Source: Bloomberg ProfessionalRV > Ticker > Custom Analysis

Qualitative Analysis: GNTXHeadwinds TailwindsRegulated Industry• While OEMs, such as Tesla and BMW, push to

replace side-view mirrors with cameras, NHTSA rules requiring mirrors stands in their way.

• For its part, Gentex has developed camera-based systems such as the full-display rearview mirror, though side-view mirrors are still 30% of its production.

• It took the U.S. six years to finalize back-up camera rules, indicating some time may be on Gentex's side.

Growth Opportunities• Demand for interior auto-dimming car

mirrors in China is expected to rise 9-10% on a compound annual basis through 2025, based on Just-auto data.

• China currently accounts for about 5% of Gentex's revenue.

Dominant Market Share• Gentex is the largest maker of auto-dimming

car mirrors, holding a 91% market share.Valuation• Higher operating efficiency relative to

industry, and lower PE ratio

Technical Analysis: GNTX

Golden Cross: 150-Sma: 1

200-Sma: 1

Source: Bloomberg Professional GP > Ticker > SIF Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis: GNTX

Bollinger BandsScore: 0 (hold signal)Stock price in the middle of bands

Bollinger Bands: -1RSI: -1MACD: 0

Source: Bloomberg Professional GP > Ticker > SIF Technical Analysis

Price Target: GNTX

GNTXGB Model $20.46Dividend Discount Model

16.274

Analyst Estimates 18.29Market-Based $19.47Price Target (Average)

$18.62

Key StatsLast Price $50.20Market Cap. $7.91BEV $6.173BEV/EBITDA 20.78FY Ends 5/31/20

17P/E 33.64PEG 1.49P/B 5.15BVPS 9.75P/S 5.07Div. Yield n.a.52-wk High $53.3852-wk Low $27.40Sh. Out. 157.5MTotal Debt $0Debt/Equity 0%Current Ratio

2.14

YTD Performance

News and Press ReleasesEDU PT raised at SWS Research to $65.57 from %65.57, implies 29.9% upside

Company Profile• New Oriental Education & Technology Group, Inc. offers educational services. The

company offers foreign language training, test preparation courses for admissions and assessment tests in the United States, the PRC and Commonwealth countries, primary and secondary school education, development and distribution of educational content, software and other technology, and online training.

• Since their founding in 1993, New Oriental has had over 26.6 million student enrollments• As of August 31, 2016, EDU had a network of 67 schools, 771 learning centers and 20

bookstores.CEO: Michael Yu

(EDU)

Highlights• EDU is a market leader in China’s education market

• Profiting from a renewed focus on after-school courses geared toward kindergarten-through-12th grade students

• Chinese consumer spending on language training and test preparation is expected to reach $91 billion, a 7.4 percent increase

Turnaround plan• Last year, EDU lost out to peers such as TAL Education

Group• With company’s turnaround plan, student enrollment surged

more than 30 percent in the three months from the same period last year, an 18 percent increase

• Putting sales on track to reach a record $1.45 billion in 2016• EDU stock has soared 63 percent in the past 12 months

Revenue and Gross Profit Growth

Source: Bloomberg ProfessionalFA > Ticker > Revenue Chart

Revenue by Services

Source: Bloomberg ProfessionalFA > Ticker > Revenue by Services Chart

Relative ValuationNEW ORIENTAL

EDUCATION(EDU)

TAL EDUCATION GROUP

INDUSTRY(EDUCATIONAL

SERVICES)Last Price $50.20 $74.02 --Market Cap. $7.91B $5.99B 172.82BP/E 33.64 72.12 29.89PEG 1.49 1.35 1.62P/B 5.15 13.70 5.00P/S 5.07 7.62 3.61Dividend Yield -- -- 1.23%ROA 10.34% 8.07% 6.84%ROE 16.98% 21.70% 13.34%

Relative Analysis (Bloomberg): EDU

Source: Bloomberg ProfessionalRV > Ticker > Custom Analysis

Qualitative Analysis: EDUHeadwinds Tailwinds

● Competition has increased and negative pricing impact of expansion into lower programs like K-12 that may raise some investor concerns

● High barriers to entry that the business enjoys from almost 800 learning centers

● President Trump may hurt China - USA relationship, which may fear investors

● Advanced online platform, which helps boost its pricing power

● Management change recently in September

● Slowdown in English-language education business, especially in overseas test preparations, remains a major challenge for the company

● Besides English programs, transitioning to provide different education services online and for K-12 programs, which has tremendous demand.

● Scandalous death of one student recently, which rumored to be related with acquaintance of Minghong Yu (chairman). This may hurt the reputation

● The retention rate of 40-50% over summer courses; it should lead to better enrollments for higher end programs down the road.

● Prices on an hourly basis are expected to increase by 5% to 8%

● Plan to add 40-50 new learning centers for K 12 business this fiscal year

Technical Analysis: EDU

Source: Bloomberg ProfessionalGP > Ticker > SIF Technical Analysis

Golden Cross: 150-Sma: 1

200-Sma: 1

Technical Analysis: EDU

Source: Bloomberg ProfessionalGP > Ticker > SIF Technical Analysis

Bollinger Bands: 0

RSI: 0MACD: 0

Appendices• A- Companies to Watch• B- Alpha• C- Executive Profiles• D- Price Target Calculations

Key StatsLast Price $38.45Market Cap. $2.06BEV $1.950BEV/EBITDA 3.8FY Ends 12/2015P/E 8.7PEG --P/B 1.95BVPS 19.77P/S 0.73Div. Yield 1.09%52-wk High $42.5752-wk Low $29.29Sh. Out. 53.5MTotal Debt $308.7

MDebt/Equity 28.15%Current Ratio

3.04

YTD Performance

News and Press Releases

Company Profile• Cooper Tire & Rubber company manufactures and markets replacement tires. The

company focuses on the manufacture and sale of passenger and light truck replacement tires.

• Cooper also manufactures radial medium truck tires and materials for the truck tire retread industry.

• Cooper was founded in 1914, and is headquartered in Findlay, OH.CEO: Roy Armes

(CTB)

Relative Analysis: CTBMetrics CTB GOODYEAR TIRE &

RUBBER (GT)Industry (Tires and Rubber)

Last Price $38.45 $30.14 --Market Cap. 2.06B $7.87B 135.89BP/E 8.74 7.62 22.08PEG -- -- 1.03P/B 1.95 1.76 2.67P/S 0.73 0.52 1.37Dividend Yield 1.09% 1.26 1.56%ROA 9.47% 1.86% 5.73%ROE 23.98% 7.49% 11.68%

CTB

AlphaDescription Recommendati

onInterpretation Justification

XLY +2 Semi-Strong Buy • Hold XLY until interest rates normalize and political uncertainty clears

Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (BWLD)

0 Hold • Activist investor• Share buybacks• Relatively overvalued• Declining same store sales

Gentex Crop. (GNTX)

0 Hold/Watch • Dominant market share• Growth prospects• Relatively undervalued

GameStop Crop. (GME)

-3 Strong Sell • Lack of durable competitive advantage• Physical disc obsolescence • Declining same-store sales

New Oriental Education & Technology (EDU)

-2 Semi-Strong Sell • Political uncertainty• Long-term growth prospects

Disney (DIS) +1 Weak Buy • Well diversified entertainment company

• Durable competitive advantage• Return to growth FY2018

Legacy (GME) Spring 2016DCF Summary % Growth Rate 2%Required Return 17.0%Long Term Constant Growth Rate 3.0%Price per Share $31.37Market Price $30.75

Legacy (GME) Spring 2016Investment Thesis (Spring 2016)

Actual Differences

Issued $475M in senior notes (March 2016).• Intends to use this for

general corporate purposes, which is likely to include acquisitions, and maybe dividends and stock buybacks.

Increased dividend by 3% for upcoming March 2016 distribution.Virtual Reality (VR)“We’re going to be the destination for VR.”-CEO Paul Raines

Legacy (BWLD) Spring 2016BWLD

Market Price

$160.88

EPS $4.97PEG Ratio 1.32 (5 yr.

expected)P/E Ratio 32.4Beta 0.80D/E Ratio .11

Legacy (BWLD) DCF Summary

% Growth Rate 15.5%Required Return 16.0%Long Term Constant Growth Rate 6.0%Price per Share $163.22Market Price $160.88

Legacy (BWLD) Spring 2016Investment Thesis Actual Differences$25M share repurchases in Q4 – still approved for another $175M buybackFranchise sales growth has been noticeably slower2016: Focus on the beer experience, lunch, and takeout as sales-driving initiatives for 2016.Plans to grow R Taco fast-casual restaurant chain - emerging restaurant concept that have the potential for significant growth (11 current locations).

Legacy (EDU) Spring 2016EDU

Market Price

$32.85

Market Capitalization

$5.1 Billion

EPS $1.35PEG Ratio 1.34 (5 yr expected)P/E Ratio 24.24Beta 1.90D/E Ratio 0

Legacy (EDU) Spring 2016% Growth Rate 7.0%Required Return 13.0%Long Term Constant Growth Rate 4.0%Price per Share $20Market Price $32.85

Legacy (EDU) Spring 2016Investment Thesis Actual DifferencesLargest provider of private educational services in China. Quarterly Net Revenues Increased by 17.7% Year-Over-Year. Quarterly Student Enrollments Increased by 35.3% Year-Over-Year. Quarterly Net Income Attributable to New Oriental Increased by 70.3% Year-Over-Year. Expanded square feet of classroom by 14,000 last year. Improving retention rates.

Legacy (GNTX) Spring 2016GNTX – Spring 2016

Market Price

$15.62

Market Capitalization

$4.55 Billion

EPS $1.08PEG Ratio 1.20P/E Ratio 14.46Beta 1.04D/E Ratio 0.13

Legacy (GNTX) GNTX Spring 2016% Growth Rate 14.17%Required Return 12%Long Term Constant Growth Rate 4.0%Price per Share $15.03Market Price $15.62

Legacy (GNTX) Spring 2016Investment Thesis Actual DifferencesAerospace sector has annual sales growth of +50%Price declinedAuto sector earnings are expected to fall 5.5% in the fourth quarter of 2015.Auto earnings are expected to surge 25.6% in the first quarter of 2016.Automotive industry +10% annual revenue growth in the next five years.Control 90% market share in auto-dimming mirrorsOnly on big competitor—Magma MirrorsEPS is expected to climb from $1.08 to $1.15 in 2016Since 2010, net income has been growing at a rate of 20.31% per year.Gross profit margin is over 35%

Sally J. Smith, CEO at Buffalo Wild Wings• Sally J. Smith, 58, has served as Chief Executive Officer and

President of Buffalo Wild Wings since July 1996 and as a director since August 1996.

• She served as BWW Chief Financial Officer from 1994 to 1996.

• Ms. Smith began her career with KPMG LLP, an international accounting and auditing firm.

• Ms. Smith holds an inactive CPA license. She serves on the boards of the National Restaurant Association, Alerus Financial Corporation, Allina Health Systems, and Hormel Foods, Inc.

• Ms. Smith holds a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration and Accounting from the University of North Dakota.

• Stock performance under tenure: +1,427%• 2015 Total Compensation: $3,894,984

Sally J. Smith, CEO Buffalo Wild Wings

Restaurant Locations: BWLD• Restaurant Locations

Buffalo Wild Wings Pizza Rev R TacoCompany Owned

Franchised Company Owned

Company Owned

Franchised

608 595 2 7 7

1203 2 14

J. Paul Raines, CEO at GameStop Corp.• J. Paul Raines is the director and CEO at

GameStop Corp.• Prior to being named CEO in June 2010, he

served as Chief Operating Officer.• Mr. Raines has led GameStop by expanding the

company to include a portfolio of AT&T wireless and Apple technology retail brands through its acquisition of Spring Mobile and Simply Mac.

• Mr. Raines earned his Bachelor of Science in industrial engineering from the Georgia Institute of Technology in 1985.

• Stock performance under tenure: +47.08%• 2015 Total Compensation: $9,139,897 J. Paul Raines,

CEO GameStop

Robert “Bob” Iger, CEO and Chairman at Disney

• Robert A. Iger, 64, has served as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer since March 2012. Prior to that time, he served as President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company since October 2005.

• He is a member of the Board of Directors of Apple, Inc., the Lincoln Center for the Performing Arts in New York City and the National September 11 Memorial & Museum.

• His strategic vision for The Walt Disney Company focuses on three fundamental pillars:

• generating the best creative content possible; • fostering innovation and utilizing the latest technology; and, • expanding into new markets around the world.

• Mr. Iger has built on Disney’s rich history of unforgettable storytelling with the acquisition of Pixar (2006), Marvel (2009), and Lucasfilm (2012), and the landmark opening of Disney’s first theme park and resort in Mainland China, Shanghai Disney Resort.

• Mr. Iger earned his Bachelors degree from Ithaca College in 1973. He also holds a JD from Western State College Law, and a Bachelor’s Degree in Economics from State University of New York at Buffalo

• Stock performance under tenure: +366.50%• 2015 Total Compensation: $44,913,614 Robert Iger,

CEO Disney

YoY Financial Results

Fred Bauer, CEO and Chariman at Gentex• Mr. Fred T. Bauer is the Founder of Gentex Corp. and

has been its Chief Executive Officer since May 1986. • Mr. Bauer serves as an Executive Chairman of Gentex

Corp. and has been its Executive Director since 1981. • He has vast wealth of knowledge and experience

which came with over 35 years of dedicated service to Gentex Corp.

• Mr. Bauer has overseen the Company's increase in market capitalization from approximately $17 million at its initial public offering in 1981 to approximately $4.35 billion as of March 1, 2016.

• Stock performance under tenure: +16,175%• 2015 Total Compensation: $1,536,699

Fred Bauer, CEO Gentex

Dividend Discount Model: BWLD

Source: Bloomberg ProfessionalDDM > Ticker

Analyst Expectations: BWLD

Source: Bloomberg ProfessionalEE > Ticker

GB Model: BWLD

• Our assumed long-term growth rate: 15.0%

• Conservative relative to analyst averages

• We believe with recent same store sales declines and continued downward pressure on margins, BWLD will be unable to sustain a long-term growth rate in excess of 15%.

Long-Term Growth RateBloomberg

Valueline Nasdaq Average

18.0% 14.5% 17.83% 16.78%

Market Based Valuation: BWLD BLWD Industry

AveragePrice at Industry Average

P/E 28.07 31.68 $176.46

PEG 1.32 2.01 $238.08

P/B 4.68 5.24 $181.15

P/S 1.53 1.76 $191.74

P/FCF 26.41 33.82 $114.99

EV/EBITDA 10.4 10.62 $169.46

Average $178.65

BWLD (11/20/2016)EPS 5.57PEG Assumed long-term growth rate

21.265%

BVPS 34.57Sales 1,982.8MShares Out. 18.2MSales/Share $108.945FCF/Share $3.40EBITDA $299.9M

GB Model: GME

• Our assumed long-term growth rate: 2.0%• Considerably conservative relative to

analyst averages• We believe with significant recent same

store sales declines (6-7%) and competition from direct-download offerings by PS and Xbox, the physical disk game for markets will follow path of CDs and DVDs.

• We fear the dividend may be unsustainable due to downward trending cash flows.

Long-Term Growth RateBloomberg

Valueline Nasdaq Average

8.45% 14.5% 11.34% 8.43%

Dividend Discount Model: GME

Source: Bloomberg ProfessionalDDM > Ticker

Analyst Estimates: GME

Source: Bloomberg ProfessionalEE > Ticker

Market Based Valuation: GMEGME

Industry Average(Bloomberg Best

Fit – Specialty Retail)

Price at Industry Average

P/E 6.07 17.03 $64.88

PEG 0.71 3.93 $118.89

P/B 1.13 3.66 $75.68

P/S 0.27 1.00 $87.93

P/FCF 32.10 26.78 $19.55

EV/EBITDA 3.64 7.16 $48.00

Average $69.16

GME (11/20/2016)EPS $3.81PEG Assumed long-term growth rate

7.40%

BVPS $20.68Sales 9,144.6MShares Out. 104MSales/Share $87.929FCF/Share $0.73EBITDA $810.9M

GME Market Based ValuationGNTX Industry Average Price at

Industry Average

P/E 15.01 22.19 $26.63

PEG 1.30 1.00 $15.01

P/B 2.78 3.40 $22.03

P/S 3.13 1.85 $10.75

P/FCF 17.70 29.76 $30.36

EV/EBITDA 7.83 6.10 $12.01

Average $19.47

GME (11/20/2016)EPS 1.20PEG Assumed long-term growth rate

11.55%

BVPS $6.48Sales 1,664.6MShares Out. 286.5MSales/Share $5.81FCF/Share $1.02EBITDA $596.2M

GB Model: DISLong-Term Growth Rate

Bloomberg

Valueline Nasdaq Average

8.62% 8.00% 8.04% 8.22%• Our assumed long-term growth rate: 9.08%• Higher than average analyst estimates.• We believe as Disney improves ESPN operations,

growth will return back to the company as soon as FY 2018.

• Disney benefits from exclusive licenses to broadcast live sporting events, unparalleled movie-making talent with Marvel, Pixar, and Lucasfilm.

• Furthermore, Shanghai Disney has already hosted 4 million visitors in the first 4 months of operations. We believe as global economic conditions improve, Disney’s theme park and cruise lines operations will benefit.

Dividend Discount Model: DIS

Analyst Estimates: DIS

GB Model GNTXLong-Term Growth Rate

Bloomberg

Valueline Nasdaq Average

10.56% 8.00% 11.17% 11.24%• Our assumed long-term growth rate:

11.62%• This is in-line with average analyst

expectations.• We believe Gentex has significant growth

opportunities in overseas markets, particular China, where estimated growth is expected to be 9-10% through 2025..

• Gentex holds a dominate market share of the auto-dimming rear-view mirror category, and ships to over 26 OEMs.

Dividend Discount Model: GNTX

Analyst Estimates: GNTX

Dividend Discount EDU

Price Target EDUEDUDividend Discount Model

$67.823

Analyst Estimates

$58.54

GB Model $80.36Market-Based $50.79Price Target (Average)

$64.38

GB Model EDU

Analyst Estimates: EDU

EDU Market Based ValuationEDU Industry Average Price at

Industry Average

P/E 33.64 29.96 $45.54

PEG 1.49 1.62 $55.60

P/B 5.15 5.01 $48.85

P/S 5.07 3.62 $35.73

P/FCF 17.37 34.04 $98.38

EV/EBITDA 20.27 13.15 $20.65

Average $50.79

EDU (11/20/2016)EPS 1.52PEG Assumed long-term growth rate

22.58%

BVPS $9.75Sales 1,553.9MShares Out. 157.5MSales/Share $9.87FCF/Share $2.89EBITDA $247.4M

EDU Market Based ValuationDIS Industry Average

(adj.)Price at Industry Average

P/E 33.64 43.23 $248.57

PEG 1.49 1.88 $103.86

P/B 3.63 4.66 $126.00

P/S 2.88 7.16 $248.95

P/FCF 17.37 33.80 $175.76

EV/EBITDA 20.27 17.57 $171.10

Average $179.04

DIS (11/20/2016)EPS $5.75PEG Assumed long-term growth rate

9.608%

BVPS $27.04Sales 55,632MShares Out. 1,600MSales/Share $34.77FCF/Share $5.20EBITDA $16,729M

Dividend Discount Model: CTB

Analyst Estimates: CTB

GB CTB

CTB Market Based ValuationCTB Industry Average

(Bloomberg)

Price at Industry Average

P/E 8.74 14.50 $62.64

PEG -- (1.84)P/B 1.95 2.07 $40.92

P/S 0.73 0.80 $43.45

P/FCF 13.04 16.23 $47.88

EV/EBITDA 4.14 1.84 $11.71

Average $41.32

CTB (11/20/2016)EPS $4.32PEG Assumed long-term growth rate

--%

BVPS $19.77Sales 2,916.5MShares Out. 53.7MSales/Share $54.31FCF/Share $2.95EBITDA $509.5

Price Target CTBCTBDividend Discount Model

$20.33

Analyst Estimates

$42.80

GB Model $20.62Market-Based $41.32Price Target (Average)

$31.27