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twitter.com/janrotmans
Times of Transition: the role of game-changers
Brighton, 26 August 2015
1. The Great Transition
2. Implications for Transition Theory
3. Role of Game Changers
Structure
We do not live in an era of change
but in a change of eras
• Industrial revolution
• Modernisation of society
• Shift in power
Latest Tipping Point period
19th Century vs 21th Century
industrial revolution digital revolution
fear for machines fear for robots
faith in technological progress technological optimism
long-lasting turbulence increasing turbulence
social inequality social inequality
Marx Piketty
Differences
complexity
pace
impact
growth
human capital
climate change
Change of Eras
1. Society is changing fundamentally
2. Economy is changing radically
3. Emerging new power
Society 3.0
Through development stagePre-development stage
Horizontal
Decentralized
Bottom-up
Vertical
Centralized
Top-down
Time
Build-up of Society 3.0
We are here
Tipping Point
Transition to Society 3.0
centralized decentralized
top-down bottom-up
big organisations flat organisations & networks
systems & structures initiatives & humans
fixed & rigid fluid & flexible
directing government facilitating government
Old Society New Society
Energy from fossil fuels centralized to clean & decentralized
Welfare from taking care of to arranging that
Building from service & product to demand & service
Care from effective & efficient to human-oriented
Education from organisations central to teacher central
Traditional Sectors in Transition
CitizenInitiatives
Local Energy Initiatives
Local Health Care Cooperations
Explosive Growth of Cooperations
Economy 3.0
banks financial cooperations
energy companies google, tesla, start-ups
taxi companies Uber
hotel chains Airbnb
book stores Amazon
Old Economy vs New Economy
Economic Transition
- robotisation en automatision
- digitalisation of production process
- unbundling & separation of tasks
- circular & biobased economy
The Energy Transition
Disruptions in 10 years
1 year ago: high oil prices
2 years ago: sustainable new capacity > fossil new capacity
3 years ago: shalegas ‘revolution’
4 years ago: Fukushima
7 years ago: financial crisis
Energy Transition: Tipping Point
chaos
conflicts
battlefield
Tipping Point Indicators
coal fire plants are phased out worldwide
decoupling of economic growth and CO2-emissions
big European energy companies are in trouble
solar PV about 80% cheaper than 7 years ago
grid parity: solar & wind compete with fossil fuels in many regions
since 2013 more clean energy was installed than fossil fuel
Global Climate Movement
divestment movement
350.org
gofossilfree.org
Pope
Bill McKibben, Naomi Klein, James Hansen
Beyond Transition Theory
fluid development of networks in interaction
with actors that undertake strategic actions
Re-Conceptualizing Transitions
Societal (Transition) Field
streams societal value sets & modes of organisation
systems set of solutions for societal needs in instit. setting
actors individual or collective strategic agents
Conceptual Framework
NOT ready-made solutions that solve a persistent problem
BUT technologies, infrastructures, social practices,
organisations and arrangements that can get institutionalised
‘Solutions’
Rooted in Complex Systems Theory
new stream functions as an attractor
critical point is at the crossroads of two attractors
system becomes vulnerable and either adapts or dies out
punctuated equilibrium is short period of instability & chaos
agents with smart strategies & timing can have much impact
IdividualAgent
Repetition
Deliberation Imitation
Social comparison
Cognitive processingMemory (mental
map)
Constraints
Uncertainties
Social NormsGoals and Beliefs
Decision
Strategy
Perspectives
macro-developments
Interests
meso developments
Local Situation
micro developments
new societal streams emerge around new values and needs
actors connect to streams affiliate with new solutions
actors undertake strategic actions that can lead to new
initiatives, networks and movements
actors exercise various kinds of power by their strategic actions
Societal Field Dynamics
frontrunners create solutions in niches for radical innovation
connectors enable connections between people, ideas, solutions
topplers able to mobilise lots of people and topple systems
followers give weight, visibility and legitimacy to new solutions
Four types of Transition Actors
Typology of Transition Actors
Actor Action Power Strategic movements
Front runner Innovates Innovative &
destructive
Entrepreneurs that pioneer (new) solutions in early stages
Connector Anchors Constitutive Anchors (new) solutions within existing institutional settings,
whether part of an incumbent system or an emerging system
Toppler Empowers Transformative &
systemic
Creates new, enabling institutions or breaks down existing,
impeding ones, empowering new solutions
Follower Follows Potential
Systemic
Through their numbers creating institutionalisation of (new)
solutions. Contribution to the formation of social movements.
Typology of Transition Collectives
Collective Agent Description Examples Actor configuration
Initiatives Organisations making
new solutions available
Start-ups, enterprises,
cooperatives & communities
Initiated by frontrunners or
topplers attracting followers
Networks Loose affiliation of actors
sharing values/ solutions
Organisations, knowledge
networks, user communities
Typically frontrunners and
connectors and followers
Movements Network by association,
with popular support
Open source movement,
climate movement, yfm
Typically initiated by
topplers, mass of followers
Transition Field Dynamics
Frontrunners Connectors Topplers
• Initiatives • Networks • Movement
Time
Emerging vs Incumbent Systems
transition field dynamics valid for both
mirroring incumbent and emerging systems
fluid network development from both sides
harmonica dynamics: weakening & strengthening
to be elaborated
the rise of the new streamfrontrunners are dominant
initiatives proliferate and networks emerge
no institutionalisation
the tipping phasenew solutions and systems scale up
topplers and connectors build up movements
institutionalisation and transformative power
the consolidation phase
new stream embodied, old one disappears
cascade of transitions with mass of followers
Great Transition Dynamics
Role of Game Changers
+ highly specialised, efficient and effective
- bureaucratic, overregulated and costly
emerging stream decentralised, bottom-up care system
less bureaucracy and humans central
Transition Programme Long-Term Care [2007-2013]
25 experiments with frontrunners, connectors, 1 toppler
Programme was successful but terminated, arose a movement
Jos de Blok = toppler = initiator of neighbourhood care
Dutch Health Care
energy transition project [2001-2010]
+ agenda setting, experimenting, initiatives, networks
- policy implementation failed
dramatic stagnation of sustainable energy, from 2% to 5% in 25 years
broad sustainable energy implementation plan for 2015-2050
emerging stream: 500 local, decentralised energy initiatives
Urgenda as toppler won a lawsuit against the Dutch government
government is forced to cut CO2-emissions by 25% in 2020
Dutch Energy Law Suit
represents about 25% of energy use in the Netherlands
incremental innovation policy for housing aims at 2050
emerging stream of energy-neutral renovation of houses
initiatives and networks for energy-neutral housing renovation
toppler Jan-Willem van de Groep created a break-through
radical plan to make 110.000 houses energy-neutral in 5 years
Dutch Housing Stock
times of transition require set of new transition concepts
combination of topplers, connectors, frontrunners can be effective
framework: streams, actors, systems needs empirical validation
multi-actor approach has implications for transition governance
Concluding Remarks