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Q2’2010
10/08/2010
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
Introduction
•
Compares overall market dynamics (value and unit growth) in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods sector across Europe.
•
Is based on the sales tracking Nielsen performs in every European market.
•
Covers sales in grocery, hypermarket, supermarket, discount and convenience channels
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Is based on the widest possible basket of product categories that are continuously tracked by Nielsen in each of these countries and channels
•
Reports on the 2nd quarter of 2010–
Week 15, 2010 till week 27, 2010
•
NB: Turkey data was reworked for Q1 2010–
Cigarettes were removed from calculation because of distorting effect
This report:
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
Executive Summary A poor Q2 in terms of volume growth rates, confirms the very slow
healing of consumer confidence
•
In 2009 the Easter weekend was part of Q2, this year Easter was part of Q1 sales –
The shift in sales of this top weekend penalized the Q2 growth rates •
Beyond this calendar technicality it’s the first time European value growth falls short of +1% since debut of the Growth Reporter in 2007 –
Steep drop in Norway despite highest Consumer Confidence in Europe–
Germany and Italy are holding down the European number •
Greek / Euro crisis becomes visible in FMCG Spending
•
Inflation is still under the 1% level –
Deflation exceeds -6% in Finland and close to -3% in Ireland, Portugal and Switzerland–
Price increase surge back to +2.7% in the UK and +3% in Turkey •
Volume growth rates were lower than Q1 in 15 of the 21 markets–
Hungary, the Czech rep and Switzerland are the exceptions•
Consumer remains doubtful on recovery –
Consumer confidence rebuilding is slow •
The East –
West divide remains in place.
–
Rampant inflation in Albania, Bosnia and Ukraine–
Falling volumes in Bulgaria, Baltics, Romania and Russia
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
Europe overview (*)Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
(*):Austria, Belgium, Czech Rep., Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK.
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Latest volume trend overview
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Q2 2010 growth rates per country (versus Q2 2009)
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
•Nielsen Economic Current
Germany France UK Italy Spain
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers shopping more frequently?
Are consumers spending more per trip?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence index
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as € , £ change vs. YAGO
Europe Big 5 summary
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and + 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Negative: between -1 and -4%
Very Negative: < -4%
6363 7878 7171 69698181 77 55 22 44 1010
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DETAILS BY COUNTRY
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Austria Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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Belgium Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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Czech Republic Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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Denmark Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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Finland Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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France Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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Germany Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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Greece Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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Hungary Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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Ireland Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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Italy Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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NetherlandsFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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Norway Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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Poland Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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Portugal Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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Slovakia Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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Spain Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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Sweden Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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Switzerland Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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Turkey Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
Cigarettes sales excluded onwards 2010.
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UK Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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Extended countries
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Based on Bimonthly reporting cycles•
Categories covered in food and drug channels
Albania Bosnia Bulgaria Croatia Estonia Israel Latvia
Lithuania Macedonia Romenia Russia Serbia Slovenia Ukraine
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Albania Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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Bosnia Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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Bulgaria Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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Croatia Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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Estonia Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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Israel Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
Latvia Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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Lithuania Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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Macedonia Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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Romania Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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RussiaFast Moving Consumer Goods Market Dynamics
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Serbia Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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Slovenia Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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Ukraine Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
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Glossary•
Nominal value growth: –
Percentage change in value sales (expenditures) as measured by the total basket of reported product categories
•
Unit value growth (≈
‘price’
change): –
Percentage change in the average retail price per unit in the total basket of reported product categories
–
The unit of volume in the basket varies by category (e.g. litres, kilograms, tonnes, etc) –
The change in average price per unit may result from: –
Price changes of individual products –
Change in the mix of purchased products; more or less expensive products, more or less promotions, etc.
–
Channel switching; more or less purchases in discount stores, or hypermarkets, or convenience outlets, etc.
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Product or channel mix changes may be induced by price change or may just be the result of market dynamics.
–
The unit value growth reflects how consumers experience ‘cost of living’ in their actual grocery shopping behaviour.
•
Volume growth:–
Percentage change in purchased volume (quantity) of products •
The three components are related:–
ValueGrowth = UnitValueGrowth * VolumeGrowth
See attachment for calculation rules