шийдвэрийн модны шинжилгээ

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  1. 1. : . . . 0. .
  2. 2. * * * , * *
  3. 3. , . . , , . , .
  4. 4. , . . , ,
  5. 5. : , ? , ? , , ? : ? ? ? ? : ? ? , ? ? : ? ? ?
  6. 6. : , , , . , , , . : , . , , . , . . 2 .
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  8. 8. ? , 4 .
  9. 9. Tasks This is an example text. Go ahead and replace it with your own text.
  10. 10. : . : :
  11. 11. .
  12. 12. * . .
  13. 13. 1.1 , 2 0.9 50% 50% 50% 50% 1.1 -0.5 0.9 -0.2 50%*1.1+50%*(-0.5)=0.3 50%*0.9+50%*(-0.2)=0.35
  14. 14. * *
  15. 15. * /decision node/ . /chance node/
  16. 16. 1 2 3
  17. 17. . . 1,000,000$ 400,000$ . . . 100,000$ 10,000$ . 50% 80% . ?
  18. 18. $100,000 $10,000 (0.5) (0.5) $1,000,000 $900,000 $0 -$100,000 -$10,000 $0 $390,000 $400,000 $0 (0.2) (0.8) EV=0.5x$900,000+0.5x(-$100,000)=$400,000 EV=$400,000 EV=$310,000 EV=$400,000 EV=$0
  19. 19. 75 (80 ) . ( 20) 2 . 20 , 15 . 50% 75% . ?
  20. 20. 20 15 (0.5) (0.5) Success Failure 20 95 0 75 75 0 90 15 (0.25) (0.75) EV=85 EV=86,25 EV=86,25 Success Failure