The problem Rush hour traffic in Jakarta MEET DHAKA Only 1% of people have cars
What do we predict will happen to Dhaka if nothing is done?
The problem 4 pm TRAFFIC JAM IN JAKARTA August 2011 Rush hour traffic in Jakarta
DESIGN CITIES LIKE YOU GIVE A DAMN An initiative of the
DESIGN CHALLENGE substantially improve the alternatives to driving in Dhaka in 3 months or less An initiative of the
DESIGN YOUR DHAKA sexy sidewalks
DESIGN YOUR DHAKA critical mass cycling
DESIGN YOUR DHAKA car-free zones / days
DESIGN YOUR DHAKA making the invisible visible
DESIGN YOUR DHAKA the best way to see Dhaka
How?
3 INSIGHTS 1 cities dont innovate as much as they should and when they do, they dont share 2 we can seamlessly build effective glocal (global + local) teams and share knowledge across space and time 3 we can now rapidly prototype physical, digital and mobile designs that address urban scale problems
5 DESIGNED CITY LEVERAGES NEW IDEAS TO REBRAND ITSELF AS A CITY THAT IS LEAPFROGGING INTO THE FUTURE a) the places that need the help the most at this time and b) that have a local team that we can work with 6 OTHER CITIESADOPT SOME OF THESE NEW EXPERIMENTS 1 IDENTIFY THE CITY and the URBAN-SCALE DESIGN CHALLENGE law of unintended consequences crowdsource ideas from local constitutents research, research, research 4 BROADCAST EXPERIMENTS TO THE WEB WHERE INVESTORS CAN HELP SCALE THEIR FAVORITE EXPERIMENTS 2 BUILD A GLOCAL DESIGN TEAM IDENTIFY and REFINE THE BEST IDEAS that can be RAPIDLY PROTOTYPED 1-2 months prototypes, including design files all open-sourced and freely available to any city refine ideas with the help of global experts 2-3 weeks 3 RAPID PROTOTYPE IN THE CITY some members of global team to assist in the rapid deployment of new ideas local partners to own and document the experiments progress
DESIGN YOUR DHAKAJANUARY 2012
THEORY OF CHANGE private Motorization in South and Southeast Asia excluding Singapore requires well-organized, capable resourced govt which usually doesnt happen till later in development stages how this private motorization wave might be avoided how to support and scale this experimentation A B C D [Google CiOdouglasmerrill] make alternatives much more appealing regulate cars(ownership and use) regulate land use (do not build more roads) GOD e.g. natural disasters, apocalypse 3 types of innovation transformative incremental with unintended consequences incremental C1 C2 A1 A2 enhance existing capacity build more capacity disincentivize limit newINFRASTRUCTURE INFORMATION retrofits done only when congestion is really bad egbeijing, jakarta or with unprecedented control / foresight eg Singapore sidewalks, bicycle paths, brts, metro stations on-demand para-transit, real-time bus and rail info localization scalable INFORMATION retrofits bicycle and car sharing mobile-driven information that can help solve transport user problem in a specific context + mobiles can be a spark! entrepreneur C2 B road made car-free rickshaw and service redesigned experiment spread by courts and media mobiles on rickshaws make them new 1 ideas 2 incentives C2 C2 3 technical & implementation support C3 C4 make alternative purchases more appealing make appealing a lifestyle without cars
Demand-Side [1] Developing Asia = South and Southeast Asia excluding Singapore 2 AGGREGATE DEMAND FOR TRAVEL (USE) Can owning a Mobile phone reduce the desire to use and need an automobile? [user demand] attributes of mobility mode policy measures (fuel taxes, parking fees) upfront cost ongoing cost 1 AGGREGATE DEMAND FOR TRAVEL (PURCHASE) perception travel time safety effort payment reliability comfort wait time driving directionsvehicle tracking car-sharing policy measures (car quotas, import taxes) Demand for Auto use increased communications [mokhtarian, saloon] car-sharing [shaheen] Congestion more roads HIGHEST 0 MIN BEST MEDIUM unavailable unless situation is extremely dire e.g. jakarta, beijing economic growth Demand for Auto ownership Demand for motorcycle use GREAT IF NO AIR POLLUTION DANGEROUS Demand for travel GREAT FASTEST GOOD 0 MIN Jakarta (9 MM for 9.6 MM people) Demand for motorcycle ownership Demand for Bus use WALKING STILL REQUIRED OVERCROWDED BRT with dedicated lanes 15-60 MIN SLOWEST substitution effect Bus is an inferior good bus arrival times Demand for paratransituse POTENTIAL FOR SCAMMING on-demand taxis, rickshaws 15-60 MIN MEDIUM Congestion / air pollution / co2 emissions bicycle-sharing BECOMES MORE DANGEROUS WITH MORE CARS LOTS OF EFFORT + HEALTH BENEFITS WEATHER DEPENDENT POTENTIALLY THE HIGHEST Demand for Walking / cycling use 0 MIN more roads Demand for bicycle ownership substitution effect Social equity bicycle-sharing walking / cycling is an inferior good
Demand-Side [2] Developing Asia = South and Southeast Asia excluding Singapore taxes on cars, petrol, parking fees, subsidies for transit Can owning a Mobile phone reduce the desire to use and need an automobile? [user demand] dedicated bus lanes 2 USER-CENTRIC TRAVEL DECISIONS Methods of changing motorization behavior This is our brain (decision-making apparatus) C APPEAL TO HUMAN EMOTION B INCENTIVIZE A REGULATE X car quotas reason is often weak, our sentiments are strong, and our sentiments are trustworthy [brooks in the social animal] - Difficult to do in developing contexts due to lack of enforcement mechanisms also may impinge on freedoms, one of the core benefits of economic development [Sen] Aspiration, Love, sharing, surprise, wonder, sacrifice, delight subconsciousthought conscious thought Money and Time As incomes increase, financial incentives become less effective as transport share of income declines perception which destination? Its about the complete user experience before transit during transit after transit Especially as congestion makes pushes the limits of commuting time, Time becomes a potentially powerful lever but one that may be difficult to push how long will it take? will I get to my destination in time? am I comfortable? do I feel safe? does something smell? Killer marketing campaigns for walking, biking and transit cool walking paths activity / event based travel search multi-modal, real-time transport planner Managing space-Time Grammy award wedding day trip to nepal Ted Talk X 8 am Schooling Retirement 0 100 Time-Based destinations connected to transit Parenthood found a dollar on the ground transport is not about connecting people to places as fast as possible but to the right places at the right time for the right amount of time Work destinations are not just fixed like home and work; or are they commercial like restaurants they can be public places like parks Family and Friends can be destinations; special events etc chance run-in with stephen 50% car-free, development zones car-quotas free bus and train rides fun shared transit its about the unexpected journey (and not the destinations) X dinner Midnight
Supply-Side Developing Asia = South and Southeast Asia excluding Singapore Can Mobile phone intelligence improve the supply of automobile alternatives? 1 SUPPLY FOR TRAVEL 2 IMPACT of MOBILE PHONE INTELLIGENCE Rail economics highly dependent on density; Since costs are front-loaded, often build for political reasons [Guerra & Cervero] Routing directions / mapping / local search lift all boats but especially driving Publicly Operated Privatized Publicly Operated Privatized on-demand fleet mgmt improves efficiency real-time tracking maintains / improves ridership but likely just marginally Profit per passenger Profit per passenger bicycles bicycles walking walking paratransit paratransit buses air Autos buses No. of passengers Autos air No. of passengers rail rail motorcycles motorcycles Washington metro has one of the highest farebox recovery rates at 60% of opex [nelson etal] Privatized b/c of high usage & competition in developing countries Cost per ride + taxes + externalities increases prices along with other service improvements Airports as most profitable [Gomez-Ibanez & Meyer] tension btwn lowering price to serve more customers and maintaining operational profitability which ultimately hits taxpayers so is a net transfer bicycles walking Cost per ride + taxes + externalities paratransit buses Autos air rail motorcycles less leverage with rail prices since pro
