34
© Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 1 Perils of Perception A FOURTEEN COUNTRY STUDY

Perils of Perception - Global

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

Ipsos MORI have compared perceptions of the likes of immigration levels, religious demographics and teenage birth rates with the actual figures across fourteen countries. See how your country did! How would you have fared? Take the quiz: https://www.ipsos-mori.com/perceptionsquiz

Citation preview

Page 1: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 1

Perils of PerceptionA FOURTEEN COUNTRY STUDY

Page 2: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 2

These are the findings from our 14 country study looking at how accurate

– or inaccurate – people are when asked to estimate basic facts about their population or social issues.

It shows how wrong we often are:

Perceptions are not reality…

Page 3: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 3

IN YOUR OPINION WHATPERCENTAGE OF GIRLS AGED BETWEEN 15 AND 19 GIVE BIRTH EACH YEAR?

Page 4: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 4

24 3

18 1

17 0.5

16 2

15 1

16 3

15 2

14 0.4

14 0.2

14 1

12 0.6

11 0.7

11 0.5

8 0.7

+21

+17

+17

+14

+14

+14

+14

+14

+13

+13

+12

+11

+10

+7

US

Poland

Italy

Hungary

Canada

Great Britain

Australia

Germany

South Korea

Spain

France

Belgium

Japan

Sweden

AVG. GUESS ACTUAL% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH

Q. In your opinion what percentage of girls aged between 15 and 19 give birth each year?

People across the world hugely overestimate the proportion of teenagers who give birth each year.

Page 5: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 5

Avera

ge g

uess

%

% Girls aged between 16 and 19 years that give birth each year

0 1 2 3 40

5

10

15

20

25

People across the world hugely overestimate the proportion of teenagers who give birth each year.

The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries

above the line have, on average, guessed too high

while countries below have guessed too low

Q. In your opinion what percentage of girls aged between 15 and 19 give birth each year?

Page 6: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 6

WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION DO YOU THINK ARE IMMIGRANTS TO THIS COUNTRY?

Page 7: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 7

30 7

32 13

29 10

28 10

16 2

35 21

14 1.75

24 13

23 12

23 13

10 2

10 2

23 16

35 28

+23

+19

+19

+18

+14

+14

+12

+11

+11

+10

+8

+8

+7

+7

Italy

US

Belgium

France

Hungary

Canada

Poland

Great Britain

Spain

Germany

Japan

South Korea

Sweden

Australia

AVG. GUESS ACTUAL

% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH

Q. What percentage of the population do you think are immigrants to this country?

All countries overestimate their level of immigration

Page 8: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 8

Avera

ge g

uess

%

% Immigrants to this country

0 5 10 15 20 25 300

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Q. What percentage of the population do you think are immigrants to this country?

All countries overestimate their level of immigration

The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries

above the line have, on average, guessed too high

while countries below have guessed too low

Page 9: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 9

OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE MUSLIM?

Page 10: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 10

31 8

29 6

20 2

18 2

21 5

20 4

15 1

16 2

19 6

17 5

7 0.1

5 0.4

5 0.1

4 0.1

AVG. GUESS ACTUAL

+23

+23

+18

+16

+16

+16

+14

+14

+13

+12

+7

+5

+5

+4

France

Belgium

Canada

Australia

Great Britain

Italy

US

Spain

Germany

Sweden

Hungary

South Korea

Poland

Japan

TOO HIGH% POINT DIFFERENCE

Q. Out of every 100 people how many do you think are Muslim?

People in a number of countries massively overestimate the proportion of Muslims

Page 11: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 11

Avera

ge g

uess

%

% Muslims

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.

Q. Out of every 100 people how many do you think are Muslim?

People in a number of countries massively overestimate the proportion of Muslims

The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries

above the line have, on average, guessed too high

while countries below have guessed too low

Page 12: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 12

National Perceptions

OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE CHRISTIAN?

Page 13: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 13

+13

+10

+9

-14

-14

-15

-15

-16

-18

-19

-20

-21

-22

South Korea

Japan

Hungary

Germany

Italy

France

Spain

Poland

Australia

Belgium

Sweden

Great Britain

Canada

US

42 29

12 2

62 53

58 58

69 83

49 63

62 77

79 94

45 61

46 64

48 67

39 59

49 69

56 78

% POINT DIFFERENCEAVG.

GUESS ACTUALTOO LOW TOO HIGH

Q. Out of every 100 people how many do you think are Christian?

In contrast to the Muslim question, majority-Christian countries tend to underestimate how many people count themselves as Christian.

Page 14: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 14

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Avera

ge g

uess

%

% Christians

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.

Q. Out of every 100 people how many do you think are Christian?

In contrast to the Muslim question, majority-Christian countries tend to underestimate how many people count themselves as Christian.

The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries

above the line have, on average, guessed too high

while countries below have guessed too low

Page 15: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 15

National Perceptions

OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE OVER 65?

Page 16: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 16

48 21

42 15

39 14

43 18

37 14

36 14

40 18

41 19

38 18

37 17

40 21

41 25

32 16

33 19

+27

+27

+25

+25

+23

+22

+22

+22

+20

+20

+19

+16

+16

+14

Italy

Poland

Canada

Spain

Australia

US

Hungary

Belgium

France

Great Britain

Germany

Japan

South Korea

Sweden

AVG. GUESS ACTUAL% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH

Q. Out of every 100 people how many do you think are over 65?

All countries hugely overestimate the proportion of their population aged 65+

Page 17: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 17

Avera

ge g

uess

%

% Over 65

10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 300

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.

Q. Out of every 100 people how many do you think are over 65?

All countries hugely overestimate the proportion of their population aged 65+

The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries

above the line have, on average, guessed too high

while countries below have guessed too low

Page 18: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 18

National Perceptions

OUT OF EVERY 100 ELIGIBLE VOTERS ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK VOTED IN THE LAST ELECTION?

Page 19: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 19

57 80

54 75

49 66

47 64

60 76

43 59

55 69

58 72

72 85

51 61

84 93

42 49

85 89

57 58-1

-4

-7

-9

-10

-13

-14

-14

-16

-16

-17

-17

-21

-23

AVG. GUESS ACTUAL

France

Italy

Great Britain

Hungary

South Korea

Japan

Spain

Germany

Sweden

Canada

Australia

Poland

Belgium

US

% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO LOW

Q. Out of every 100 eligible voters how many do you think voted in the last election?

All countries underestimate the proportion of the population that voted in the last major national election

Page 20: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 20

Avera

ge g

uess

%

% Voted in last election

40 50 60 70 80 90 1000

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.

Q. Out of every 100 eligible voters how many do you think voted in the last election?

All countries underestimate the proportion of the population that voted in the last major national election

The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries

above the line have, on average, guessed too high

while countries below have guessed too low

Page 21: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 21

National Perceptions

OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE OF WORKING AGE ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE UNEMPLOYED AND LOOKING FOR WORK?

Page 22: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 22

49 12

32 4

39 11

32 6

34 9

31 8

46 25

29 9

23 6

24 7

24 8

23 7

19 4

20 6+14

+15

+16

+16

+17

+17

+20

+21

+23

+25

+26

+28

+28

+37Italy

South Korea

Hungary

US

Poland

Belgium

Spain

France

Australia

Great Britain

Sweden

Canada

Japan

Germany

AVG. GUESS ACTUAL% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH

Q. Out of every 100 people of working age about how many do you think are unemployed and looking for work?Unemployment

levels are hugely overestimated in every country

Page 23: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 23

0 5 10 15 20 25 300

10

20

30

40

50

Avera

ge g

uess

%

% Unemployed and looking for work

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.

Q. Out of every 100 people of working age about how many do you think are unemployed and looking for work?

Unemployment levels are hugely overestimated in every country

The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries

above the line have, on average, guessed too high

while countries below have guessed too low

Page 24: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 24

National Perceptions

WHAT DO YOU THINK THE LIFE EXPECTANCY WILL BE OF A CHILD BORN IN 2014?

Page 25: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 25

89 80

83 80

85 82

85 82

82 80

81 80

82 81

82 82

80 82

78 80

81 84

78 82

72 77

68 75

AVG. GUESS ACTUAL

Q. What do you think the life expectancy will be of a child born in 2014?

+9

+3

+3

+3

+2

+1

+1

-2

-2

-3

-4

-5

-7

South Korea

Great Britain

France

Sweden

Germany

Belgium

Spain

Australia

Canada

US

Japan

Italy

Poland

Hungary

TOO LOW TOO HIGHDIFFERENCE IN YEARS

People in most countries have a fairly accurate picture of life expectancy

Page 26: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 26

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 9070

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

Avera

ge g

uess

%

Average life expectancy

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.

Q. What do you think the life expectancy will be of a child born in 2014?

People in most countries have a fairly accurate picture of life expectancy

The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries

above the line have, on average, guessed too high

while countries below have guessed too low

Page 27: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 27

Looking across all questions, we have

calculated a measure of how accurate the

population of each country is.

This gives us our

“Index of Ignorance”

Page 28: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 28

Italy

US

South Korea

Poland

Hungary

France

Canada

Belgium

Australia

Great Britain

Spain

Japan

Germany

Sweden

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

10th

11th

12th

13th

14th

7th

2nd

10th

6th

11th

8th

14th

1st

13th

4th 3rd

12th

9th 5th

INDEX OF IGNORANCE

Sweden

Germany

JapanSpainGB

US

PolandHungary

Italy

South Korea

Belgium

FranceCanadaAustralia

(Least accurate at top)

Page 29: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 29

National PerceptionsPERILS OF

PERCEPTION IN BRITAIN

Page 30: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 30

% 15-19 girls that

gave birth

% Muslim

% Unemployed

% Immigrants

% Over 65

% Christian

% Voted

Life expectancy

3 5 713 17

5966

80

1621 24 24

37 3949

83

PERILS OF PERCEPTI

ON IN

BRITAIN

The British public are often very wrong about the basic make-up of their population and the scale of key social issues such as unemployment and behaviours like voting.

Actual Average guess

Page 31: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 31

1%

3%

4%

11%

19%

21%

33%

39%

46%

49%

60%People come into the country illegally so aren’t counted

I still think the proportion is much higher

What I see in my local area

What I see when I visit other towns/cities

I was just guessing

Information seen on TV

Information seen in newspapers

The experiences of friends and family

Other

I misunderstood the question

Don’t know

% who thought immigration is 26% or more

IMMIGRATION

According to official statistics the percentage of the British population that was born in another country is actually 13%. Why do you think the percentage is much higher?

41%

Base: Asked of all who said 26%+

Respondents who thought immigration was more than double the actual figure said the main reason they over-estimated is because they believe illegal immigrants enter the country without being counted.

Page 32: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 32

CRIME

Please tell me whether you think the following statement is true or false: The murder rate is rising in Britain

TRUE FALSE (Correct) Don't Know%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

25%

49%

26%

A quarter of the British public think the murder rate is rising – but half (correctly) say it is falling. More people get this correct in Britain than any other country

Page 33: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 33

• This study is based on a survey run on Ipsos Global @dvisor, between 12-26 August 2014

• Global @dvisor is conducted monthly in 24 countries around the world via the Ipsos Online Panel.

• For this study, 14 countries with high internet penetration were included: Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Great Britain, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden and the US.

• The research is based on an international sample of 11,527 adults aged 18-64 in the US and Canada, and aged 16-64 in all other countries. Sample size is approximately 1,000 per country, with the exception of Belgium,

Hungary, Poland, South Korea and Sweden where each have a sample of approximately 500

• Data are weighted to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to the most recent Census data in each country

• The “point difference” figures that show differences between the “actual” and “average guesses” may not match a straight subtraction. This is due to rounding, as the calculation is conducted using decimal places

Page 34: Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 34

© Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION

For more information, please contact:

Bobby Duffy, Global Director Ipsos Social Research [email protected] @BobbyIpsosMORI