Mobile Communication Today and Tomorrow

William H. DuttonQuello Professor of Media and Information Policy

Michigan State University

Presentation to Conference on Comparative Communication Research, Chinese University of Hong Kong, 7 February 2015.

Acknowledgements: Co-Authors

Ginette Law, Darja Groselj, Frank Hangler, and

Gili Vidan

Oxford University Consulting

The Quello Center at MSU

CHENG Lin; ZHI Hui; LU Xiaobin; ZHAO Qiyong, and WANG Bin

Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd.

Mobile Futures

Policy and Regulatory

Trends

Social Research

Technical-Industry

Developments

Synthesis of Research

• Analysis of Global Survey Research

• Longitudinal Analysis of UK OxIS Data

• Qualitative Semi-Structured Interviews

Field Research

Approach to this Global, v Comparative, Study

What is Mobile Communication?

Not New

Pedestrian

Innovative

• The Titanic

• 1918 experiments

• Mobile Phone

• Texting

• Mobile Internet

• Cloud Computing

• Internet of Things & Wearable

‘… service enabled by a wide array of electronic devices and networks across a range of locations’

• Feature Phone

• Smartphone

• Tablet, Reader, Laptop, Watch, …Devices:

• Licensed Spectrum

• Unlicensed Spectrum, Bluetooth, Whitespace, WiFi, Wired and Wireless, …

• Cloud computing – data warehouses

Network

Infrastructures

• On the Move

• Car, Home, Work, Conference, …Locations

Mobile

Device

LocationNetwork

Creating Growing Array of ‘Mobile Communication’Technologies

Changing Ecology of Mobile

Increasingly Converging Technology

Increasingly Diverse Ecology

Use of Multiple ICTs by World Regions

Global Internet Values Survery, 2012, N=8,241

Mutually Transformative

Mobile Internet

Transforming the Internet

Search

Video

Mobility

• Always AvailableSocial Media

Big Data

Is Mobile Opening or Closing?

Opening

Multiple Devices

Specialized Uses

Closing

Vertically Integrated Chain

(OS, Apps)

Preinstalled Apps v Open

Search

Equalities?

Closing Divides

More Individuals w

Phones

More with Access to the

Internet

Creativity of Users

Creating New Divides

MulitpleDevices

Multiple Infrastructures

Mobile Broadband and PC Penetration (Source: Robert Kenny, Communication Chambers, ITU Data)

CanadaGermany

Hungary

Japan

Slovenia

Switzerland

R² = 0.4435

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0

Mo

bile

BB

su

bs

pe

r 1

00

inh

abit

ants

, 20

12

PC Penetration, 2000 (% of HH)

Key Social Implications / Issues

Increasing Centrality of Mobile: What’s Essential?

Equality and Empowerment?

New Normal, or Tools-Symbols of Status & Identity

Social Contact and Interpersonal Communication

Privacy

Four Future Scenarios

The Seamlessly Bounded Ensemble (Ensemble)

The Unified Hub (Hub)

Connected Accoutrements (Accoutrements)

The Exposed Device-Free Realm (Device-Free)

Technology in the Hands of Society

• Dualities of Mobile: Together, Apart

• The Open Ended, Unpredictable Future of Mobile Communication

• Responses to Emerging Issues, such as Privacy

– The Unpredictable Consumer-User-Producer

– Potential Shifts in Policy and Regulation

• Global Economic Shifts